Working Papers
WP1187Title:Impact of Zombie Firms on China’s Aggregate TFP DynamicsAuthor:Li  Xuchao  and  Shen  Guangjun   View Count:37
       Abstract:Characteristics of Zombie firms in China and their impact on aggregate TFP are studied in this paper. China has more zombie firms weighted by assets and liabilities in 2011-2013 than in 2008-2009, while almost the same zombie firms when evenly weighted. Most zombie firms are non-state-owned since 2005, and are distributed in over-capacity industries. Such zombie firms hinder China’s TFP growth. A
WP1186Title:How Does Labor Supply Shock Affect Aggregate Fluctuations——An Endogenous Capital Share PerspectiveAuthor:Jianfeng  Liu,  Zhiwei  Xu,  Shangfeng  Zhang  and  Yingli  Pan   View Count:40
       Abstract:The fluctuation in labor supply is one of the most important considerations when the firms make their decisions of adopting production technology with different factor shares. This paper incorporates the endogenous factor share decision into an otherwise standard real business cycle (RBC) model. The model is estimated through the Bayesian method based on Chinese aggregate data. Our quantitative re
WP1185Title:House Price and Residents’ Risk PreferenceAuthor:Zhang  Guangli  and  Liu  Xiaoyuan   View Count:44
       Abstract:By the provincial data and nationwide micro survey data, this paper empirically studies the impact of house price on residents’ risk preference. We find that the level and growth rate of house price both have significantly positive impact on residents’ risk preference. Specifically, in the area with higher house price, residents show a higher level of subjective risk preference attitude and object
WP1184Title:The Transformation of China's Foreign Economic Strategy under the “New Normal”Author:Gong  Gang,  Ma  Li,  Li  Bingnian  and  Xu  Wenge   View Count:58
       Abstract:The “new normal” means that Chinese economy is no longer a demand-determined economy, but a supply determined-economy in normal or general situation. Because of that, the main driving force of economic growth lies in the supply side. A supply-determined economy is not only the logical starting point of China's supply-side reform, but also means a necessity for transforming China's foreign economic
WP1183Title:Regional reputation for quality and firms’ export performanceAuthor:Ye  Di  and  Zhu  Linke   View Count:42
       Abstract:This paper investigate the impact of regional reputation for quality on the performance of firm exports when there is asymmetric information about product quality. We use average export quality of neighboring firms in the same region as the proxy for regional quality reputation. We find that higher regional quality reputation leads to higher exports of firms in that region. We further find that th
WP1182Title:Population Age Structure and RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical StudyAuthor:Huang  Shoufeng   View Count:47
       Abstract:This paper examines the effects of population age structure on the provincial RMB real effective exchange rate in China by theoretical model and empirical test. The theoretical model shows that population age structure may affect real exchange rate through “demand structure”, “current account” and “labor productivity” these three kinds of mechanisms. Then, we measure the provincial real effective
WP1181Title:Feedback Trading, Trade Inducement and Asset Prices BehaviorAuthor:Changsheng  Hu,Zhen  Peng  and  Yangchun  Chi   View Count:49
       Abstract:Fundamentally, financial markets are “markets of human”, anomalies in financial markets are closely associated with human nature. “Sentiment and feedback” is one of the most common phenomena in financial markets, which not only embodies of human nature, but also have a significant impact on asset prices. This paper builds a model in which speculators infer and induce irrational investors character
WP1180Title:Spatial Externalities, Optimal Intergovernmental Transfers and Endogenous Economic GrowthAuthor:Jin  Ge  and  Lin  Yanfang   View Count:46
       Abstract:In this paper we develop an economic growth model with a three-stage Stackelberg game among a central government, two local governments and two representative agents. Considering the pervasive interregional spatial externalities of local public services in reality, we particularly focus on the optimal transfers of the central government and the optimal expenditures of the local governments. Specia
WP1179Title:Understanding the time-varying characteristics of the effectiveness of the nominal interest rate transmission mechanismAuthor:Liu  Jinquan,  Xu  Ning  and  Yu  Yang   View Count:48
       Abstract:This paper uses the DSGE model and the TVP-VAR model to do theoretical simulation and measurement test for the effectiveness of transmission path: interest rate adjustment → asset prices → entity economy. The results showed that: in theory, the nominal interest rate adjustment can effectively stabilize the assets price fluctuation and the real economy stability, but in the actual conduction proces