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Population Constraint, Local Specialization of Intermediate Products and Enterprise Export Decision
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TitlePopulation Constraint, Local Specialization of Intermediate Products and Enterprise Export Decision  
AuthorZhou Mo,Gao Fangshu and Li Zengdi  
OrganizationUniversity of International Business and Economics; Renmin University of China;; 
Key WordsPopulation constraint, Local specialization of intermediate products, Export decision mechanism 
AbstractMaintaining the low fertility rate for a long time, has labor supply of China’s industrial enterprise turned from unlimited one to a population constraint? What impact does this constraint have on export of China’s enterprise? Once this effect is confirmed, it will mean that the factors, that are often ignored in the study of international trade, will be the key to the transformation of China's trade growth and economic growth in the future. This paper considers every enterprise in their county, in which the demographic factors, reflecting the regional characteristics, are added to the theoretical framework. We use ‘red flag’ county of family planning to construct field experiments, and test the impact of population constraints on the export decision of micro enterprises based on micro spatial choice model. The important findings of this paper are: 1. Population constraints will have a negative impact on the export intention. This effect is most significant for labor-intensive export enterprises, but not for labor-intensive enterprises. 2. The restriction of population will reduce the marginal cost of exports by reducing intermediate product category, thus affecting the export choice. That is, there exists an intermediary mechanism of ‘population constraints → intermediate product category → enterprise export behavior’. 3. Contrary to the results of some theoretical studies, this paper examines the mediating effect of local intermediate product output between export and population constraints, but the empirical results do not give significant supportive conclusions. The theoretical and empirical findings of this paper provide a meaningful policy suggestion to deal with the impact of population structure change on China's economic growth and foreign trade development, develop a reasonable regional coordinated development policy and improve the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. 
Serial NumberWP1304 
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