The Potential Impacts of China Involved Mega-RTA Negotiations
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| Title | The Potential Impacts of China Involved Mega-RTA Negotiations
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| Author | Li Chunding,Guo Zhifang and He Chuantian |
| Organization | Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics;Research Center for International Trade and Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies |
| Email | chundingli@163.com; gzfgirl@163.com; cthe@gdufs.edu.cn |
| Key Words | Mega-regional free trade agreement; China; Numerical general equilibrium; Welfare; Trade |
| Abstract | Accelerating the implementation of free trade agreement strategy, and gradually building a high standard free trade agreement network, is one of important measures of China’s further opening-up policy in the thirteenth five-year plan period. The construction of mega-regional free trade agreement is the key content of this strategy. This paper builds a 29-country global general equilibrium model system, which adds the influence mechanisms into the model according to the present negotiations, to numerically simulate the potential impacts of China involved mega-regional free trade agreement negotiations. Simulation results reveal that: (1) these trade deals will improve China’s welfare, production, employment and trade, and comparatively trade effects are the strongest, production and employment effects are listed in the second and the trade effects are the least. (2) Other member countries all will gain from the trade deal, and countries with small economic scale and high export dependence will gain more. China’s comparative gains and contributions determined its leading role in the agreement negotiation. (3) Comparatively, FTAAP and RCEP will benefit China the most, China-Japan-Korea FTA will benefit China the second most, and China-ASEAN FTA upgrade and China-GCC FTA will benefit China the least. This paper extends the modelling and numerical methodology of RTA research, and gives policy implications to China’s free trade agreement strategy. |
| Serial Number | wp1297 |
| Time | 2018-10-10 |
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