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Agricultural Commercialization, Factor Substitution and Agricultural Production Efficiency——Who Will Feed China?
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TitleAgricultural Commercialization, Factor Substitution and Agricultural Production Efficiency——Who Will Feed China?  
AuthorXu Qing,Zhao Sicheng and Liu Jin  
OrganizationShanghai University of Finance and Economics 
Key WordsNon-farm income; Agricultural commercialization; Factor substitution; Agricultural production efficiency; Food security 
AbstractBecause of China’s industrialization and urbanization and the urban-rural wage differentials, an unexpected labor migration from rural to urban had occurred since the reform and opening-up so that the migrant labor increased their non-farm income. However, under the Chinese Household Registration System (HRS), rural households generally choose the part-time behavior in order to maximize their income. In addition, with the improvement of agricultural production efficiency, although sown area of grain crops in China kept stable, the total grain yield had increased year after year. This article endeavored firstly to construct a model of maximization income corresponding with peasants’ part-time behavior, and not only illustrated theoretically how non-farm income would play an role on agricultural production efficiency but also had put forward some hypotheses from microscopic eagle. Secondly, these hypotheses would be tested in the context of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) introduced from 2012. It was shown that despite labor input declining, the substitution capital for labor would have a significant positive effect on efficiency of agricultural production. What’s more, the study suggested that it could be taken to increase capital input for food security in future. 
Serial NumberWP1235 
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