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“Regression to the Mean” is not Reliable——The Persistence of Long-Run Economic Growth Revisited
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Title“Regression to the Mean” is not Reliable——The Persistence of Long-Run Economic Growth Revisited  
AuthorLiu Peilin,Jia Shen,Zou Jingxian and Shen Guangjun  
OrganizationDevelopment Research Centre of the State Council;Peking University; Central University of Finance and Economics;;; 
Key WordsEconomic Growth; Growth Persistence; Advantage of Backwardness; China’s Economy 
Abstract In this paper, by using improved statistical methodology and more detailed data, we summarized the cross-country experiences of economic growth and found that the “regression to the mean” framework proposed by Pritchett & Summers (2014) wasn’t robust. The distribution and persistence of growth can vary dramatically among economies at different development stages. Consequently, associated predictions on China and other catching-up economies, by adopting “mean-reversion” framework on global sample, will be seriously biased. Instead, we propose a global growth model incorporating the mechanism of technology-catch up, which performs better at explaining the observed growth patterns for worldwide economies and China after reform and opening period. Lessons from those high-growth economies lead us to believe that China can maintain a medium-to-high growth momentum, as long as it can realize a sustainable TFP growth by promoting the fundamental reforms effectively. 
Serial NumberWP1172 
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