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Immigration Potential and Urban Growth
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TitleImmigration Potential and Urban Growth  
AuthorSu Hongjian and Wei Houkai  
OrganizationInstitute for Urban and Environmental Studies,CASS;Rural Development Institute,CASS; 
Key WordsImmigration Potential; Comprehensive Utility; Urban Growth; Population Migration 
AbstractIn the process of China’s rapid urbanization and urban development, “what determines city size” is more important than “what influences of city size”. Integrating the theory of urban growth and population migration, this article constructs the index immigration potential to measure the potential urban population growth supplied by the city and the other region. Then this article studies China's urban growth in the process of rapid urbanization employing a model including the immigration potential and the comprehensive utility. The results show that with the growth of China city, city scale system continuous optimizing, and the rank-scale coefficient gradually close to the average level in the world. The immigration potential index can well explain the differences of the urban growth, and the decomposition of the gravity potential index show that the contribution of the city size in the base year to urban growth is greater than the size of the population in the city and the other region weighted by the distance. The income levels and the amenities can also contribute the city growth through influencing the city's comprehensive utility, but the influences are slightly lower than the immigration potential. The dummy variables the level of the city administrative and coastal cities can improve the city growth. In the future of China’s urbanization, we need to inspect the immigration potential, scientifically make the urban planning and urbanization strategy, and actively absorb the potential immigration, while avoiding blind expansion. 
Serial NumberWP1171 
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