The Impact of Changes in Family Planning Policy on future Human Capital in China
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| Title | The Impact of Changes in Family Planning Policy on future Human Capital in China
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| Author | Li Haizheng and Qiu Yuefang |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| Email | haizheng.li@econ.gatech.edu；qiuyuefang@email.cufe.edu.cn |
| Key Words | Family Planning Policy; Human Capital; J-F Lifetime Income Method; Population Forecasting |
| Abstract | In this study, we investigated the impact of changes in family planning policies on future human capital development in China. We adopted the widely used Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income based framework in measuring human capital stock and combined it with the multiple status population forecasting model to forecast China’s human capital for 2011—2060, under various scenarios of birth rates. Those scenarios are designed to reflect the impact of changes in family planning policy in China. We also compared the effect of adjusting the family planning policy with that of adjusting the retirement age on human capital. Our results show that relaxing family planning policy will postpone the declining of human capital stock, increase human capital reserve, and improve population quality measured by human capital per capita. |
| Serial Number | WP1114 |
| Time | 2016-09-19 |
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