| Abstract | China entered a diminishing growth path in recent years. How will the economy grow in the future? To answer this question, the author build a growth model to measure the contributing factors, inclusing structural and institutionsl elements, from the supply side, and, combined with demand-side analysis, forecasted future economic growth till 2030.It is found that weakness of growth is a direct reasult of declining TFP, and indirectly a reasult of difficulties in transfering from external-demand-driving growth to internal-demand-driving growth, oversaving and overinvestment, increasing administrative cost, and inceasing leverage rate. All these relate with institutional defects.The future growth is uncertain. With accelerating institutional reform and structure rebalance, China can reinstall growth impetus, and become a high-income country before 2030. Otherwise the weakness will be likely to continue, and, without macoreconomic policy adjustment, there will be a high risk of financial crisis. |