Fertility Policy and Population Structure Optimization, Economic Growth
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| Title | Fertility Policy and Population Structure Optimization, Economic Growth
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| Author | Wang Weiguo and Liu Feng |
| Organization | School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
| Email | wwguodufe@163.com；dcsjliufeng@hotmail.com |
| Key Words | Fertility Policy ; Population Structure Optimization ; Economic Growth; Overlapping Generation Models; |
| Abstract | This paper studies the effects of population structure change on economic growth, bringing fertility rate, baby mortality rate and life expectancyinto overlapping generation model. The model shows thatfertility rate, mortality rate and life expectancy have uncertain influence on economic growth. The empirical result shows that the decreasing of fertility and increasing of life expectancy have negative on economic growth, while low mortality rate has positive effect on it. However, their combined effect on economic varies from country to country. The changing of population structure of OECD countries hinder the economic growth, contributing to -0.04% annual average, especially Japan (-0.14%). Population aging is the main reason. The changing of population structure of China plays a positive effect on economic growth, contributing to 0.02% annual average, which is the result of the first demographic dividend. The analysis of fertility policy adjustment policy implies that the increasing 0.1 unit of total fertility rate can contribute to about 0.08% of GDP per capital. Besides, the fertility policy adjustment policy should combines with the fiscal educational expenditure policy. |
| Serial Number | WP1048 |
| Time | 2016-04-08 |
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