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Aggregate financing to the Real Economy and Monetary Policy Transmission: A research based on the stock data
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TitleAggregate financing to the Real Economy and Monetary Policy Transmission: A research based on the stock data  
AuthorSheng Songcheng and Wan Ajun  
OrganizationThe People's Bank Of China 
Emailwanajun@sh.pbc.gov.cn 
Key WordsAFRE; monetary policy transmission; intermediate target 
AbstractIn February 2015, Aggregate financing to The Real Economy(AFRE) stock data was lauched,which is smoother than incremental data, and with potential value as intermediate target of monetary policy and financial macro-control. Through introducing AFRE into an equilibrium model with microscopic base, the paper anlynizes china's monetary policy transmission mechanism, finds that compared to the M2, interest rates and other traditional intermediary indicators, AFRE fits corporate decision-making behavior from the micro view,and more closely associated with the ultimate goal of economic growth. In addition,empirical research basing on multiple structure data and using mutiple methods such as VAR, TVP-VAR,shows that AFRE is more relevant to business cycle fluctuations ,and has more predictive and explanatory power ,better than other price-based or quantitative indicators such as M2 to a large extent; In addition, the AFRE has a certain controllability. Therefore, we believe it is necessary to establish a monetary policy framework in which the AFRE is the core , fully reflecting the financial and economic relations and financial support to the real economy, improving the relevance and effectiveness of financial macro-control. 
Serial NumberWP1020 
Time2016-01-26 
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