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Take-off, Persistence, and Sustainability:Demographic Factor of the Chinese Growth
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TitleTake-off, Persistence, and Sustainability:Demographic Factor of the Chinese Growth  
AuthorLu Yang and Cai Fang  
OrganizationChinese Academy of Social Sciences; 
Key WordsPotential growth rate; Demographic dividend; Reform dividend; Total factor productivity 
Abstractwith the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main characteristics of the demographic dividend having disappeared, China’s potential growth rate decreases. And our results suggest that demographic dividend contributed to nearly one forth of the economic growth in China in the past three decades, while TFP growth explains another on third and the remaining mainly due to capital accumulation, it explains nearly half. China’s potential growth rate will slowdown—from nearly 10 per cent in the past 30 years to 7.5 per cent on average during 2011-2015 and 6.6 per cent on average during 2016-2020—due to the diminished demographic dividend, this process can not be reversed, however, reform measures is conductive to clearing the institutional barriers to the supply of factors and productivity, thereby slowing the declining trend of potential growth rate. The aggregate reform dividend (e.g., relax family planning policy, postpone the retirement age, improvement of education and training, tax cut, and improvement of TFP) could reach to 1-2 percentage points on average during 2016-2050.  
Serial NumberWP918 
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