On-chain Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement: the world Regularity and Chinese Experience
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| Title | On-chain Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement: the world Regularity and Chinese Experience
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| Author | Pan Wenqing, Lou Ying and Wen Yi |
| Organization | School of Economics & Management, Tsinghua University |
| Email | panwq@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn；louy.11@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn；wenyi@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn |
| Key Words | on-chain trade intra-industry trade business cycle co-movement WIOD |
| Abstract | This paper investigates the role of on-chain trade integration in influencing business cycle co-movements both across the world and China and its trade partners based on the WIOD database. The main findings are as follows: (1) the so-called FR effects do exist and on-chain trade not only leads to higher business cycle synchronization but also amplifies FR effects; (2) there is a positive link between intra-industry trade and business cycle co-movement to the extent of the whole world; (3) economic distance and trade partners are also important factors influencing FR effects; (4) China’s reality is consistent with the world’s regularity: on-chain trade influence the business cycle co-movements between China and other countries and amplifies FR effects, except that the influence of intra-industry trade is not significant; (5) on-chain trade between China and Asian countries is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements between China and other countries. |
| Serial Number | WP899 |
| Time | 2015-07-14 |
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