Housing Price Fluctuation, Housing Owned Rate and Real Estate Crowding Effect
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| Title | Housing Price Fluctuation, Housing Owned Rate and Real Estate Crowding Effect
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| Author | Deng Xiang,Zhu Zixiang and Du Haitao |
| Organization | Sichuan University; Southwest Jiaotong University; Southwest University for Nationalities |
| Email | dengxiang@scu.edu.cn；zhuzixiang@home.swjtu.edu.cn；haitao_du@qq.com |
| Key Words | Housing Preference; Housing Owned Rate; Crowding Effect; |
| Abstract | This Paper tries to answer three questions. Firstly, what are the main driving factors of housing price fluctuation? Secondly, how does real estate industry influence the non-real estate industry? Thirdly, how does the housing owned rate affect the real estate industry as well as the whole macro economy? The Paper firstly constructs a multi-sector model including the representative households, real estate enterprises, capital goods producers and final representative entrepreneurs. Based upon the Bayesian estimation analysis, the housing price fluctuation mainly depends on the housing demand shock in the short term, but housing investment-specific shock and TFP shock together play an important role in the long run. Both housing price and real estate investment have weak crowding effect over non-real estate investment as well as consumption. Thus the empirical evidence and theory show some consistency. Afterwards, the paper constructs a heterogeneous model including the households without owning the housing and finds higher housing owned rate would strengthen the crowding out effect. The paper supposes the deceleration of the real estate market as well as the housing owned rate would benefit the macro economy in a more balance way. |
| Serial Number | WP893 |
| Time | 2015-07-07 |
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