The Scale Effect and Evolution Mechanism about Resident Consumption Demand
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| Title | The Scale Effect and Evolution Mechanism about Resident Consumption Demand
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| Author | Ouyang yao，Fu yuanhai and Wang Song |
| Organization | Hunan Normal University;Guangzhou University |
| Email | ouyangyao008@163.com；fuyuanhai1126@163.com； |
| Key Words | Consumption demand Scale effect Evolution mechanism |
| Abstract | A large population is the initial characteristics of large countries’ economy, which can deduce the scale effect of consumption demand. The contradiction of Chinese demand structures, especially the deficiency of resident consumption demand, has become a deep contradiction to constrain the sustained and stable economic growth in China and has made not good use of the country’s advantages. This paper makes an empirical test on the data of 1955-2013 by using threshold cointegration model. The results show that the long-term effect of Chinese resident consumption demand to economic growth will change with the changes of resident consumption rate .Specifically, when the resident consumption rate is less than 0.539 and the long-term effects rose 0.1, the second annual economic growth rate only rose 0.077; when the resident consumption rate is higher than 0.539 and the long-term effects rose 0.1, the second annual economic growth rate only rose 0.121. Since the reform and opening up, the fact of the decrease of the resident consumption rate has caused that the consumer’s contribution to economic growth is constant declining and economic growth mainly depends on investment driven. The conclusion of the empirical research corresponds with that fact. Therefore, the key to realize the way of economic growth which changes from investment driven to the demand in China is to expand consumption relative scale. |
| Serial Number | WP872 |
| Time | 2015-05-12 |
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