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The Impact of Social Security on Fertility Will
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TitleThe Impact of Social Security on Fertility Will  
AuthorWang Tianyu and Peng Xiaobo  
OrganizationPeking University; 
Key WordsSocial Security; Fertility Will; One-Child Policy; New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme 
AbstractIt has been demonstrated by a great deal of research that social security has profound influence on individual fertility decision and total fertility rate. However, relevant study about China is still rare due to the limitation (distortion) of one-child policy on fertility behavior. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on fertility will of China’s rural residents. Based on two-period family decision model, we find that the NCMS with subsidy from government has both income effect and crowd-out effect. The former increases the fertility will while the latter depresses it. Armed with the 2000-2009 longitudinal data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), we find that the crowd-out effect outweigh the income effect. That is, enrolling in the NCMS makes the fertility will of women at child bearing age decrease by 3%-10%. Supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence, we think the establishment and popularization of health insurance can provide some opportunity for the relaxation of the one-child policy. 
Serial NumberWP599 
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