| Abstract | This paper, based on the situation of macroeconomic and monetary economics theory, proposes and constructs regime switch model of two threshold variables. The model characterizes the regime switch of monetary policy effects. According to monetary policy effects, this paper comments the match of central bank communication and actual intervene tools and its switch opportunity. The results show that the monetary policy effects have the character of asymmetric regime switch, which based on situation of inflation and economic growth rate. According to monetary policy effects, Chinese economic can be divided into three different regimes: recession regime, prosperity regime and moderation regime. The match of monetary policy tools should transform with economic regime. In recession regime, the price and quantity tool should be as the main tools of monetary policy, at the same times, the central bank should use communication tool properly. To implement tight monetary policy, the centre bank should look the quantity tool as the main tool, the price tool as the secondary tool in prosperity regime. The central bank should match policy tool flexibly on the base of the difference of monetary policy target and monetary policy effect in moderation regime. China will come into moderation regime in the future, the loose price tool should as the main central bank tool and appropriately tight quantity tool as the assist tool, and the central bank also should exert the management and guiding role of central bank communication to inflation and inflation expectation. |