The International Co-movement of Trend and Cycle Fluctuation of China’s Economic Growth
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| Title | The International Co-movement of Trend and Cycle Fluctuation of China’s Economic Growth
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| Author | Ouyang Zhigang |
| Organization | Economic and Management School of East China Jiaotong University |
| Email | oyzg2001@sina.com |
| Key Words | Economic Fluctuation; Common Trend; Common Cycle; International Common Shock; Country Shock |
| Abstract | This paper tests international co-movement of China’s economic growth using econometric methods of common trend and common cycle based on international economic cycle theory. This paper also decomposes common trend and common cycle of international economic growth and set factor model to describe the reasons of Chinese economic fluctuation and international co-movement. The results show that the international co-movement of Chinese economic includes trend and cycle. The trend of economic growth had came into declining channel in China, USA,EU and Japan recently, and the cycle of Chinese economic growth also had came into declining channel at the same time. These results suggest that Chinese economy is facing a difficult environment both at home and abroad. The mainly reasons of Chinese economic fluctuation are domestic shocks and foreign shocks. The international co-movement of Chinese economy comes from spillover effect of foreign mainly. The effect of International common shocks to Chinese economy is small. China’s economic growth will be in a downward trend in the future. To maintain the economic growth rate, Chinese should depended on their own internal polices mainly, but also close with the economic situation of important trading partners. |
| Serial Number | WP462 |
| Time | 2013-06-26 |
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