| Abstract | This paper construct a mathematical model which between the monetary policy and the price fluctuation of the agricultural products in China by borrowing Frankel’ analytical Framework（1986）， and test the influencing factors of the Chinese agricultural products’ price from 1952 to 2012 by using time series analysis approach. The research results are: (1). No matter long term or short, monetary policy has powerfully impact to the price of Chinese agricultural products, and the increasing of the supply of broad money is the key factor to lead it up. Under the inflatable stress because of monetary liquidity is in flood, the price of agricultural products is sensitive and fragile so that it is easiest to be influenced and changed frequently. (2). From the long term, financial policy, RMB exchange rate and the price of international agricultural products are also impacting to the price of Chinese agricultural products; from the short term, the expand of financial expenditure helps the price of Chinese agricultural products up, however, exchange rate and the price of international market is not; moreover, no matter long term or short, the yield of agricultural products is not an important factor to impact the price of Chinese agricultural products. (3). Based on the data from January 1999 to December 2012, with the use of Chow breakpoint method , the rapid money supply which has been proved the most important factor led to the wild fluctuations of the agricultural products’ prices in this current round since February 2009. In addition, PPI, the international prices of agricultural products and the RMB real effective exchange rate have positive effects on the prices’ fluctuations of agricultural products in this current round. |