Catastrophe Warning on China’s A-Share Market Bubbles
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| Title | Catastrophe Warning on China’s A-Share Market Bubbles
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| Author | Yin Kedong, Jin Xue and Wang Hui |
| Organization | School of Economics, Ocean University of China；China Construction Bank |
| Email | yinkedong@126.com,qzhjinxue2008@163.com,hanxingcindy@yahoo.com.cn |
| Key Words | Stock Market Bubbles; Catastrophe Theory; Monitoring and Warning |
| Abstract | This paper studies our country’s A-share market in January 1999 to December 2010 by constructing economic warning model based on catastrophe theory and designing catastrophe warning indicators with ISM method. It shows that the stock market bubbles suddenly burst in May 2001 and October 2007 after inflating for a long term. The conclusion indicates that:economic growth rate of each index in these two catastrophe months has obvious consistency trend with the warning level table, which provides intuitive basis for judging the serious degree of the stock market bubble, available for policymakers monitoring the daily stock market bubbles to ensure the warning of scientific, real-time and dynamic. |
| Serial Number | WP382 |
| Time | 2012-09-27 |
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