Financial Cycle Synchronization and Financial System Risk Contagion in the World
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| Title | Financial Cycle Synchronization and Financial System Risk Contagion in the World
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| Author | Miao WenLong and Zhou Chao |
| Organization | Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;The People’s Bank of China Zhang Ye Central Sub-Branch |
| Email | chinadragon_miao@163.com；gssdzc@126.com |
| Key Words | Financial Cycle; Financial Contagion; Financial System Risk |
| Abstract | The risk of the global financial system is one of the main causes of economic turmoil. Based on the related data of six representative country sample, through spectral analysis and time-varying Copula Model to use SPSS17.0 and MATLAB2010a software, this paper draws some conclusions: the world's financial market variables have a significant cyclical characteristics; volatility in financial markets is showing a higher consistency or synchronization; during the U.S. financial crisis in 2008 and the 2011 debt crisis in Europe, the crisis countries have significant contagion effects and impact effects on other countries. So, under the condition of financial globalization, financial contagion leads the world's financial cycle fluctuations tending to synchronize, and the financial cycle synchronization take convenient to financial contagion. The financial cycle synchronization are intertwined with the financial contagion, exacerbates the resonance of the world's financial markets and systemic financial risks. For the governance of the global financial system risk, national authorities should strengthen policy coordination and reasonable risk-sharing and jointly prevent defuse financial risks. |
| Serial Number | WP371 |
| Time | 2012-09-27 |
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