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The Duration of Firm-destination Export Relationships—Evidence from China
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TitleThe Duration of Firm-destination Export Relationships—Evidence from China  
AuthorChen Yongbing ,Li Yan and Zhou Shimin  
OrganizationZhongnan University of Economics and Law; Central University of Finance and Economics; 
Key WordsDuration of Trade Relationship; Cox Model; Negative Duration Dependence; Discrete Time Duration Model 
AbstractThe duration of trade relationships has been introduced to study trade dynamics in a new perspective. Based on the matching data of China’s customs database and Chinese industrial enterprise database during 2000-2005, we find that average duration of Chinese exporter is less than 2 years and median one is 3 years. Besides, the hazard rate of trade relationship has prominent negative duration dependence. We further use discrete time duration model to analyze determinants of trade relationship and reach the conclusion that the influences of variables in gravity model on the duration of export are consistent with those on the trade flows, meanwhile firm-level characteristics have remarkable influences on trade relationship. There exist significant differences in regional and ownership influences on trade duration. Therefore, we suggest that China should deepen existing trade relationship and carry out appropriate trade policies in order to keep stable export growth. 
Serial NumberWP309 
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