Growth Cycle Tracking and Quantification in China
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| Title | Growth Cycle Tracking and Quantification in China
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| Author | Liu Jinquan and Pang Chunyang |
| Organization | Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University |
| Email | jqliu1964@yahoo.com.cn；chunyang.pang@gmail.com |
| Key Words | Growth Cycle; Multivariate Spectral Analysis; Comovement; Composite Indicators |
| Abstract | Instead of using econometric models in the time domain, this paper implores the comovement of the cyclical components in multiple economic indicators and real GDP with resort to structural time series models and multivariate spectral analysis, and then constructs composite indicators based on previous results. By using coincidence indicator as a benchmark and leading indicator as a reference, we track and forecast growth cycles in China. As indicated in the empirical results, China’s economy has undergone 4 rounds of complete cycles since 1996, with the average duration for each cycle for about 3.5 years. The macro economy is currently in and will still stay in the stage of contraction in 2012. In order to prompt economic transition, the authorities should still stick to then stance of prudent policy combinations and be cautious to using stimulative measures. |
| Serial Number | WP281 |
| Time | 2012-07-13 |
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