Has China’s grain price growth become more stable?--An investigation based on structural break regime switching model
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| Title | Has China’s grain price growth become more stable?--An investigation based on structural break regime switching model
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| Author | Lu Jie and Zhu Xinkai |
| Organization | Renmin University of China |
| Email | lujie@ruc.edu.cn；zxk@ruc.edu.cn |
| Key Words | Food Price; Stabilizing Point; Structural Break Regime Switching |
| Abstract | As the base price, grain prices have played considerably important role in China’s macroeconomy and social price level. Understanding the price fluctuation rules will help to make more effective macro-control policies. During past two decades the fluctuation characteristics of China’s grain price have experienced a big change. In this study we investigate the fluctuation characteristics of some main kinds of grain in China by using structural break regime switching model. We find that China’s grain price growth has become more stable since 2004. The minimum grain purchase price policy which improves farmers' overall earning expectation and stabilizes food price is the most important motivating factor. |
| Serial Number | WP278 |
| Time | 2012-06-12 |
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