Management Earnings Forecasts, Managerial Overconfidence and Managers’ Reputation
Read
DownLoad |
| Title | Management Earnings Forecasts, Managerial Overconfidence and Managers’ Reputation
|
| Author | Qu Xu ,Qi Wanxia ,Qu Ying and Chen Yang |
| Organization | Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;Chengdu Guannan Management Consulting Co., Ltd |
| Email | quxu18@yahoo.com.cn,qwx-712@163.com,524882056@qq.com,834408938@qq.com |
| Key Words | Management Earnings forecasts; Historical Accuracy; Managerial Overcon- fidence; Managers’ Reputation |
| Abstract | Management earnings forecasts has an important economic position in the financial markets, we chose 2006-2009 profit forecast data of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in order to test the relations among managers earnings forecasts ,managerial overconfidence and managers’ reputation ,different from Ailles Hilary and Charles Hsu’s results, we found: (1)the current accuracy of managers’ earnings forecasts is affected by their historical accuracy, managers will become overconfidence after a series of accurate forecasts; (2)managers’ overconfidence will lead their current accuracy of managers’ earnings forecasts to be lower; (3)managers’ historical forecasts accuracy has no impact on their reputation ,which is proved by that the reaction of investors and analysts has no significant relation to the managers’ historical accuracy. Our study not only enriches literature relevant to the study of earnings estimates, but also has important implications on concern preferences to the company's voluntary disclosure of information for our investors and analysts, especially for analysts, at the same time, the study also has important policy implications for the regulatory agencies on the on the development of voluntary information disclosure system. |
| Serial Number | WP249 |
| Time | 2012-06-12 |
|