| Abstract | some bubble proxy index, such as the housing price-rent ratio, housing price-income ratio, housing vacancy rate, and the return rate of housing investment, etc, the housing forewarning index system, as well as some bubble statistical test methods are the common used methods in the past literature for housing bubble measurement. But these methods have obvious deficiencies as they cannot directly measure the size of the housing bubble. By extending the analytical framework of Black, et al.(2006), this paper measures the housing bubbles in 35 major cities in China from 1999Q2 to 2010Q2, then analysis the spatial-temporal changes of the housing bubbles in China’s 35 major cities. The results indicate that, 1) the changes in housing bubbles in most cities is highly corresponded with the changes of China’s main real estate policies. 2) Although the average housing bubble level is not very serious in the 35 major cities, but the housing bubble in eastern metropolises such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo is relatively big in recent years. Through Kernel density function and LISA analysis, this paper find that the housing bubbles are concentrating in several eastern metropolises. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations on inhibitions of housing bubbling generation and change. |