Dual Margin, Survival Analysis of China’s Agri-Food Export
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| Title | Dual Margin, Survival Analysis of China’s Agri-Food Export
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| Author | Tian Dongwen and Huang Li |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management, Beihang University |
| Email | dwtian@buaa.edu.cn,huanglide87@163.com |
| Key Words | Export Relationship; Dual Trade Margin; Survival; Deepening; Export Growth |
| Abstract | By introducing survival analysis and decomposing dual margin into three distinct components: establishing new partners and markets, having relationships survive or persist, and deepening existing relationships, this paper uses highly-disaggregated China’s export data of 831 kinds of agricultural and food products between 1990 and 2008 to study the dual margin of China’s agri-food export. It finds that compared with existing trade relationships, newly established trade relationships are more likely to fail, and contribute the export growth limitedly. Additionally, the longer the duration of trade relationships, the lower their hazard rates. Once the duration of trade relationships is longer than 4 years, their hazard rates will decline remarkably. Thus, survival time of export relations longer than 4 years indicates that the short-term intensive margin has been successfully converted into the long-term intensive margin. |
| Serial Number | WP182 |
| Time | 2012-02-14 |
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