The Role of Economic Structural Adjustment in Long Term Economic Stabilization in China
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| Title | The Role of Economic Structural Adjustment in Long Term Economic Stabilization in China
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| Author | Fang Jinsheng and Jin Xiangrong |
| Organization | Zhejiang University College of Economics |
| Email | fudancenter7@yahoo.com.cn；jinxiangrong@sina.com |
| Key Words | Variance Decomposition; Structural Effect; Volatility Effect; Forcasting; Development Strategy |
| Abstract | Based on Eggers and Ioannides(2006)’s decomposition method, it estimates sources of long term economic stabilization after the mid-1990s and forecasts possible influences of structural optimization for long term economic stabilization in future in China. We find, 1) the contribution rate of industry structure adjustment for Chinese long term economic stabilization is -46.38 percent;2) If three industries in China have not changed towards an especially stable orientation, it is impossible to have long term economic stability after the mid-1990s;3) the contribution rate of expenditure structure adjustment is 43.95 percent, but it didn’t mean that expenditure structure adjustment since reform and opening up is very beneficial to Chinese long term economic stability;4) If industrial structure will transit more towards triangle industry, more contribution structural optimization will bring;5) If expenditure structure’s share will be adjusted to average level at the early reform and opening up, the contribution rate of structural optimization will be up to 38.25 percent. Besides, it thinks that only through adopting CAF strategy, Chinese government realizes a reasonable economic structure. |
| Serial Number | WP45 |
| Time | 2011-02-14 |
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