Effects of Chinese Export Growth on Employment：ACGE Model Analysis
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| Title | Effects of Chinese Export Growth on Employment：ACGE Model Analysis
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| Author | Lu Wencong； Li Yuanlong |
| Organization | School of Management, Zhejiang University |
| Email | wenclu@zju.edu.cn，longlonglee@126.com |
| Key Words | Export Growth; Employment Effects; CGE Model |
| Abstract | Based on a CGE model characterized by Chinese labor market, a simulation analysis under different scenarios is conducted to show the effects of Chinese export change on labor employment in the context of global economic growth and China's economic stimulus plan due to the international financial crisis since the second half of 2008. The results show that export increase by one percentage leads to non-agricultural employment growth by 0.088 percentage. This effect, however, is also showed to be quite different for industrial sectors and labor groups. The employment pressure for migrant workers is much higher than for urban workers. Because the employment effect of export is lower than this of domestic investment, China has experienced not only a dramatic change in employment number from sharp reduction to significant growth, but also a structural transformation from tradable sectors to non-tradable sectors since the international financial crisis. Rebalancing between labor comparative advantage and industrial structure improvement, increasing labor absorption capacity of service sectors with large employment and low export elasticity, realizing a balanced growth in employment in different sectors, should be important policy options for Chinese future employment security. |
| Serial Number | WP8 |
| Time | 2010-10-24 |
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