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Tsinghua University China and the World Economy Forum
Date:2012-04-11       From:Tsinghua University Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE)

According to Hu Zuliu, chairman of Primavera Capital, with relatively pessimistic market expectation, reform was in desperate need. What worried him was not the year of 2010, but what should be done in 2013 and in the next 50 years, since reform, like the taxation policy reform and other things, would not be done in one day; on the contrary, it would go through a long process from the design to initiation and take many years to achieve the reform effect after full execution. Thus, we could not go in rush when it came to reform. On the other hand, we could not wait any more, it must be done immediately. Chen Yunfeng, the secretary general of Association of Chinese Real Estate Agents, held the view that the collapse of Chinese real estate industries would not be impossible. If the purchasing-limit policy was constantly complied with, the house price would decrease by 30% to 50% by the end of this year and it would definitely happen. If the credit policy including the deposit reserve ratio fell down coupled with a more flexible monetary policy, the house price would soon bounce back. The economy in China, especially the real estate market, was not complete market economy; instead it was half controlled by the government which was called the visible hand because it controlled the house price through many limitations including taxation policies.


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