Abstract： By synthesizing the short-term fluctuation with the long-term trend in the analysis of China's economic situation， the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the impactful judgment that China's economic development has entered the stage of new normal， the theoretical rationales of which are rooted in the political economics of socialism with Chinese characteristics. In terms of the development of productive forces， China has entered the later stage of industrialization， and thus the economic growth rate， industrial structure， and growth impetus would change greatly. These changes are consistent with the main characteristics of the new normal. In terms of the law of economic development， many countries and regions that have experienced long-time rapid economic growth exhibited great changes characterized by sharp decrease in growth rate after they entered the stage of higher incomes. Potential growth rate， growth factors， and growth mechanism also changed regularly in these countries and regions， the experiences of which serve as supporting evidence for the new normal. In terms of the orientation of economic development， the strategic thinking of the new normal reflects the people-centered development view. As a significant theoretical innovation in the political economics of socialism with Chinese characteristics， the new normal theory will be proved by the practice to be of great theoretical value.
Key Words： The New Normal; Theoretical Rationales; Political Economy of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics

Abstract： Based on the background about bounded rationality in public expectations， this paper firstly introduces three kinds of adaptive learning processes into the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve in order to model the dynamic disequilibrium mechanism of inflation running. After using real data from 2001Q1 to 2015Q3 to estimate parameters， it selects out the most desired learning model. Simulation analysis finds: first， inflation running shows the disequilibrium feature under adaptive learning expectation; second， reducing the influences of inflation expectation and inflation inertia in inflation driving mechanism can effectively inhibit the potential equilibrium inflation and the influence of inflation inertia is greater than inflation expectation; third， improving the rational degree of public expectation could help decrease the bias between actual inflation and equilibrium inflation. This paper proves that monetary policy aiming to price stability should be implemented by two ways: first， decreasing the deviations between actual inflation and equilibrium inflation by increasing the rational degree of public expectation; second， guiding the economy to converge to low equilibrium inflation. This paper suggests monetary policy should be combined with institutional improvement to inhibit potential equilibrium inflation. Meanwhile， expectation management should avoid myopic tendency and improve the information disclosure mechanism. In the long run， it also must improve people's level of economic education and enhance the public's judgment of the economy.
Key Words： Adaptive Learning; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Equilibrium Inflation

Abstract： Declining fertility and rising life expectancy can deepen the degree of population aging. They can affect asset price and capital accumulation through saving and investment. This paper introduces capital adjustment technology with convex adjustment costs， and develops an overlapping generations model in which the price of asset is determined endogenously under different social security system arrangements on the basis of neoclassical growth model. The study shows that declining fertility decreases national saving and investment and thus causes a decrease in the price of asset， and increases capital accumulation. The price of asset and capital stock are mean-reverting， so the initial decrease of asset price and increase of capital stock are followed by an increase and a decrease， respectively. However， the rising life expectancy can increase the price of asset in the current period， and also has a mean-reverting process. In addition， life expectancy， social security taxes， pension substitution rate and appropriation of personal accounts do not affect the price of asset in the long run. They cause long term asset price to have a deflation effect when both of them occur at the same period. In the short run， the rising life expectancy will increase the capital accumulation in the current period. In the long run， when the capital output elasticity is smaller， the capital accumulation in the long run is increasing with the rising life expectancy; when the capital output elasticity is bigger， there exists an asymmetric reverse-U relationship between them. The conclusion has important policy implications， we should also strengthen the supply-side reform while the economy is developing in the demand-side management， and it is an effective way to deal with the deflation effect of the capital price and increase the capital accumulation through improving total factor productivity (TFP) in the long run.
Key Words： Population Aging; Capital Adjustment Technology; Social Security; Asset Price; Capital Accumulation

Abstract： Using WIOD database， this paper calculates the gross service added value， domestic service added value and foreign service added value of China's manufacturing export from 1995 to 2011，based on the two levels grouped by subdivision manufacturing and factor intensity character， and finds that：(1) there is a gradually increasing trend in the rate of service added value included in manufacturing export， and this trend is different among labor intensive sectors， capital intensive sectors， knowledge and technology intensive sectors.(2)in all sectors， the added value from domestic service input dominates in the gross service added value. But seen from dynamic evolution aspect， the domination of domestic service added value has a “weak” sign， and this changing trend is also different among sectors.(3)seen from the determinants， factors such as manufacturing's vertical specialization degree have some kind of influence on the service added value included in manufacturing export， but the influences on both domestic and foreign service added value are different. Under the trend of manufacturing-to-service， the conclusions of this paper have significant policy implications for promoting China's manufacturing transformation and boosting trade gains including service added value.
Key Words： Manufacturing; Domestic Service Added Value; Foreign Service Added Value

Abstract： Based on a sample of food safety events disclosed by the media from 2004 to 2012， this paper examines the effectiveness of food safety regulation by the media， capital market as well as government， from the perspective of media coverage and capital market response， and also investigates the spillover effect. The empirical results show that in the short run a disclosure of food safety event by mass media brings significantly negative abnormal return for the involved firms. The more the media coverage， the larger the shareholder loss. The mass media becomes an effective mechanism to supervise food safety. In the long run， with the government getting involved， the government media cooperating with the capital market will form the power for supervision. Hence， establishing a sustainable mechanism with collaborative governance among the media， capital market and government is an effective mode for the food safety regulation. Moreover， this paper proposes the respective roles of the three parties so that the food manufacturing firms don't dare to， don't be able to， and don't want to be out of line. Besides， it is found that the spillover effects may take the form of either competition effect or contagion effect. The specific form depends on whether the media report could reduce the information asymmetry.
Key Words： Food Safety; Media Coverage; Capital Market; Collaborative Governance

Abstract： Using PM2.5 concentrations data at China's provincial level over 1998—2012， we adopt dynamic spatial panel model and SGMM to empirically identify the key determinants of smog pollution and discuss the corresponding smog-governing policies. The results indicate that China's smog pollution presents an obvious spatial spillover effect and high-emission “club” agglomeration. There is a significant U-shape curve relationship between smog pollution and economic growth， and smog pollution is worsening with economic growth in most eastern provinces. Due to high-proportion secondary industry， coal-dominated energy structure， rapid population agglomeration， and increasing highway traffic intensity， China's smog pollution is increasingly heavy， while the improvement of R&D intensity and energy efficiency do not play an expectant role in mitigating smog pollution. Therefore， the underlying cause of heavy smog pollution is that its promotion factors are not effectively restrained while its mitigation factors are not significantly performed. China's smog pollution presents the characteristics of the snowball effect， leakage effect， and warning effect. Hence， smog-governing policy should be implemented based on the strategies of unswerving effort， regional joint prevention and control， and punishing one to warn others.
Key Words： Smog Pollution; Smog-governing Policy; Spatial Spillover Effect; Dynamic Spatial Panel Model; Night Light Data

Abstract： In this paper， we study how historical factors might affect the path of economic growth and social development in different regions， so this paper investigates the relationship between knowledge distribution (degree distribution) and institutional quality. Studies have shown that historical factors have long-term impact on economic growth and social development， but with the help of knowledge distribution formed in the historical evolution， it can play a substantial role. (In the early days of the PRC founding)， the cadres' degree distribution is historically formed， and it is logically isomorphic to the knowledge distribution which is also determined by the history. We find that in the early days of the PRC founding， the cadres' degree distribution will affect the institution and policy implementation in different regions (i.e.， institutional quality)， then indirectly affect the path of economic growth and social development in those places， so that there appeared observable differences on the path of growth and social development in different provinces.
Key Words： Degree Distribution; The Cadres' Degree Distribution; Institutional Quality; Regional Economic Growth; Institutional Transition

Abstract： Whether securities analysts can provide fundamental information and popularize value investing is an important issue. On the base of quantifying information of investment reports， we explore the way securities analysts influence stock market from the perspectives of reputation and fundamental information mining. Our research shows that analysts can exert influence on stock market through information mining and reputation directly. Additionally， information asymmetry reinforces the influence of both reputation mechanism and information mining mechanism while mutual fund holdings intensify information mining mechanism rather than reputation mechanism. What's more， reputation mechanism only generate value for short investors while information mining mechanism contribute higher abnormal return for investors in both long and short portfolio. Our research certifies the direct impact of reputation model and information model， which is meaningful for us to understand how analysts impact stock market.
Key Words： Securities Analyst; Report Recommendation; Information Mining Mechanism; Reputation Mechanism

Abstract： Information is one of the key influential factors of the stock price volatility. Yet as a special kind of information， how does rumor affect the risk decision-making in stock market remains unknown. Because using real asset market data cannot differentiate the pure effect of rumor apart from the shift of expectations， we apply the method of lab experiment. Firstly we set up a behavioral risk decision-making model with the emotion factor. Then we design a 2×3×3 experiment based on this model. By analyzing with the difference-in-difference method， we find that relative to no rumor treatment， both buyers and sellers are more risk averse when receiving bad rumors and more risk seeking when receiving good rumors. However， this impact on risk preference does not last and has no externality. Finding the impact of rumors on risk decision makings and stock price volatility will provide solid support for the policy makers to address the problem.
Key Words： Rumor; Stock Price Volatility; Risk Decision-making; Behavioral Experiment

Abstract： The venture capital funds with different ownership often have different agency problems， which result in varied performances. According to ownership， the venture capital funds can be classified into three categories The first is government-dominated fund. Although the government capital may reduce the financing costs from high-tech enterprises， the lack of effective supervision often cause high agency costs. The second is venture capitalist fund. Although the supervision from venture capitalist could reduce the agency costs，the supervision costs and the requirement of high return will increase the financing costs from high-tech enterprises. The third is government-guided fund. It not only make the best of venture capitalist to reduce agency costs，but also enable the entrepreneurs to get low-cost government capital to reduce the financing costs from enterprises. This paper proves that， (1)the availability of the government-guided fund is the highest when the agency problems from entrepreneurs are severe and the uncertainty of projects are very high， while the availability of both the government-dominated fund and the venture capitalist fund is lower；(2)although government-guided fund can suffer from the collusion problem， but the rent-seeking problem is much more severe in government-dominated fund; (3) government-guided fund has a lower crowding-out effect than government-dominated fund. In fact， this paper explains why government-guided fund is more successful but government-dominated fund very failure.
Key Words： Agency Problem; Venture Capital Fund; Monitoring; Supervision; Rent-seeking;

Abstract： This paper firstly discovers information duality and the market characteristics of internet economy at home and abroad through the concepts of information-elements， so then reveals and proves that the network economy have the endogenously non-clearing market and external effect; internet can unified information duality to make the information flow and physical distribution unified; network externalities can be internalized by copying， sharing and cooperation， so that it can generate network aggregation—synergy effect and create social benefits and efficiency of resources allocation beyond the traditional economy of scale. Economic activity is no longer follow the general equilibrium analysis. Based on information-elements and the principles of network information pool， this paper builds dynamic cooperative game model whose utility is incomplete transferred and its extended models， studies the market structure and behavior characteristics of network economy， and solves the information asymmetry and network externalities and other major issues. Our work makes a huge revision for famous “Moore's law” and other classic theory， and becomes the significant progress and breakthrough for theory research and practical application in fields of modern network economics and information economics. In addition， this article also points out that the internet has made the real economy and virtual economy unified， and information dichotomy of mainstream economic theory needs to change.
Key Words： Information-elements; Screening-market; Information Duality; Allocation of Internet Economic Resources

Abstract： Self-control theory maintains the interlay consistency of economics with the stability of preferences for sub-selves，which is at the expense of intuitionism of individual decision-makers. This article sorts out the progress of fundamental theory in the last fifteen years. The difference from the usual reviews are: 1）Outlining the framework and axioms of self-control；2）Understanding the physiology and cognition resources as the cost of dynamic consistency，and understanding the self-control as a pricing mechanism for heterogeneous decision makers with physiology and cognition resources；3）Comparing with competition theories in invariance，welfare state and drivers of behavior change，and clarifying the difference in conclusions and methodology among competition theories； and 4）Refining the contributions，limitations and agenda of self-control via the aspects of invariance，symmetry of relationship，nested thinking，the relationship between theoretical system and object of study for a science system.
Key Words： Temptation； Self-control； Dynamic Inconsistency； Alternative Theories