Abstract：The paper depicts the characteristics of spatial correlation of regional economic growth in China by using Analytic Network Process and studies the influence factors of spatial correlation based on the QAP method.The results show that：（1)There exist 179 spatial correlation relationships between provinces and the spatial correlation is stability and multiple.(2)The regional economic growth in China can be divided four plates.The first is “bidirectional spillover plate” composed of the eastern coastal developed regions and the second is “agent plate” composed of the provinces with higher economic activity.The third is “main beneficial plate” composed of middle and western regions which develop faster.At last，the fourth is “net beneficial plate” composed of middle and western regions with less developed economy.(3)Regional economic spillover effects have obvious gradient feature.The first plate is the engine of economic growth，which will transfer the energy of economic growth to the second plate.The second plate will transfer the energy to the third and fourth plate.(4)The adjacent of geographical location and the similar structure of investment，consumption and industry are important factors，which can explain 50.2% of spatial correlation relationships.
Key Words：Regional Economic Growth; Spatial Correlation; Analytic Network Process
JEL Classification：R11，R12

Abstract：Analyzing Chinese government’s fiscal policy in the past years， we find that the government productive spending such as infrastructure investment has played the key role.To investigate the relationship between government productive spending and economic fluctuations， we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the production function including the productive government spending and incomplete competitive markets.Our paper shows that（1)the output share of public capital by Bayesian estimation is about 10% and government spending does cause productive externalities;（2)the shock from government productive spending is an important source of output fluctuations and it can explain about 23% output fluctuations;（3)the shock from government productive spending has the crowding-out effects on private consumption and investment in short-run， however， the crowding-in effects dominate in long-run.
Key Words：Government Productive Spending; Government Spending Structure; Economic Fluctuations
JEL Classification：E23， E32， E62

Abstract：Inflation expectation trap is a social economic phenomenon that is not cognitive， its formation mechanism is the result of the mutual game between the monetary authority and the individuals.This paper confirms the argument above by solving the commitment solution， deception solution， equilibrium solution and trap solution of the central bank‘s objective function.Empirical analysis shows that there are three inflation expectations trap periods.The public inflation expectations demonstrate learning and adaptive features in short term， but unbiased， effective and less than perfectly rational features in long term.Instability and periodicity of the public inflation expectations is a normal phenomenon but under the control of central bank.The time inconsistency problem of monetary policy exits insignificantly in China.The impulse of extraordinary economic growth from performance-oriented government， as well as the investment growth is likely to be the leading causes of inflation expectation traps.
Key Words：Inflation Expectation Traps; Objective Utility Function; Monetary Policy Expectation Management
JEL Classification：E31， E52， E58

Abstract：As China has rapidly emerged as one of the world’s largest investors abroad， there has been a hectic debate in the literature on whether its emergence as a major foreign investor may have undermined the importance of western industrialised economies， including those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development（OECD).This paper aims to investigate whether this is the case.The study uses a panel dataset covering 155 countries， including 33 in the OECD， where China had invested during 2003—09.This is by far the most comprehensive dataset of China‘s outward foreign direct investment（OFDI).A two-stage least squared（TSLS)regression approach is adopted for our econometric models according to an established augmented gravity model in the literature.The empirical results show clear evidence that China’s OFDI displaces that of the OECD countries， but the argument that China‘s emergence is a ‘new colonialism’ is not supported as OECD countries‘ OFDI in resource abundant host countries， particularly that in Africa and Latin America， does not appear to have been displaced by China’s OFDI.
Key Words：Outward FDI; Displacement Effect; China; OECD
JEL Classification：F21， F32， F36

Abstract：Previous studies on margins of trade export mainly highlight the importance of trade cost， while they did not explore the function of various types of trade cost.This text focuses on the impact of antidumping petitions by trade partners against Chinese goods on margins of China‘s export growth.In our observation period， intensive margin has increased steadily， while extensive margin exhibited a fluctuating feature.The annual growth rate of extensive margin was obviously lower than that of intensive margin as a whole.Our econometric results indicate that， antidumping measures have restrained the dual margins of China’s export growth significantly， and the effect on extensive margin is larger than on intensive margin.For sustainable trade growth， Chinese government and industries need to explore new development path to achieve equilibrium and deal with trade barriers actively.
Key Words：Antidumping; Intensive Margin; Extensive Margin; Trade Restraining Effect
JEL Classification：F10， F13， F14

Abstract：As China is opening more to the world， short-turn capital is being to flow frequently; however， short-turn capital flowing is famous for its mobility and aggressive nature， affecting RMB exchange rate and stocks prices.In the process of opening， reforming generating mechanism of the RMB exchange rate and perfecting stock market building， it is significant to research the relations between RMB exchange rate， short-turn capital flows and stocks prices.This paper builds a dynamic model of RMB exchange rate， short-turn capital flows and stocks prices firstly， studying the mutual relations of these three variations; then uses TVP-SV-VAR model and the monthly data from 2002.1 to 2014.3 to study the time varying features of dynamic relations.The research results show that the relations of RMB exchange rate， short-turn capital flows and stocks prices fluctuation are changing with the varying times， that is there are different relations in different periods.Based on the connections of these three variations and the influence of fluctuations to the economy and finance， we give some suggestions such as establishing early warming mechanism of short-turn capital flowing， reinforcing the cooperation between other countries and perfecting the price stability mechanism.
Key Words：RMB Exchange Rate; Short-turn Capital Flows; Stock Price; TVP-SV-VAR Model
JEL Classification： C32，E44，F21

Abstract：Using 2011 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS) data， this paper studies the impact of Guanxi on stock market participation， participation depth and stock return.With the constructed multi-dimensional Guanxi index， we find that Guanxi significantly increases stock market participation and participation depth.Specifically， as Guanxi index increases by 1%， the probability of participating in stock market increases by about 0.2%; the participation depth increases by 0.7%.However， Guanxi has no significant influence on stock return.Moreover， we find that Guanxi can affect the stock market participation through the information channel and the social interaction channel.
Key Words：Guanxi; Stock Market Participation; Participation Depth; Stock Return
JEL Classification：G11， Z13

Abstract：The continuously aging population threatens the sustainability of traditional “family mutual insurance” model in rural China.Based on the latest China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study survey data and employing the regression discontinuity design（RDD) method， this paper studies the substitutability between “public pension system” and “family mutual insurance”.The empirical results show that the new rural pension system has significantly reduced the dependency of old people on their children and relatives.Arrival of pension benefits decreased the probability of receiving private transfer by around 32—56 percentages.However， the paper finds no statistical significant effects of pension benefits on the amount of transfers.The implication of this paper is that the “public pension system” is a good alternative of traditional “family mutual insurance” model in rural China， and it is important to improve the “public pension system” by promoting the development of “New Rural Pension” project.
Key Words：New Rural Pension; Regression Discontinuity Design; Public Insurance
JEL Classification：I38， J10， H55

Abstract：This paper investigates the impacts of China‘s New Rural Pension Program on household saving and consumption using the survey data from China Family Panel Studies.We find that， the New Rural Pension Program does not reduce the saving rate of people younger than 60.The primary reason is that most people only pay yearly insurance contributions approximately 100 yuan and the anticipated amount of pension is very low， therefore it cannot reduce household saving through the wealth replacement effect or lowering income uncertainty.However， for people older than 60， who can directly receive basic pension without paying insurance contributions， the New Rural Pension Program significantly reduces their saving rate and boosts their consumption.Although they can only receive yearly pension at approximately 660 yuan， this number accounts for 22.4% of total household income on average， thereby reducing income uncertainty substantially and instantly.Therefore， in order to better achieve the aim of reducing household saving rate， the New Rural Pension Program should encourage people to pay more contributions and raise the pension replacement rate.
Key Words：Social Security； Saving Rate； Consumption； New Rural Pension Program
JEL classification：D12， D91， E21， H55

Abstract：Using nationally representative rural household panel data from 2003 through 2010， we examine how improvements in human capital affect the income level in rural China and the income gap between households who live under and above the poverty line.We find that health improvement not only increases household income， but also reduces the income gap between two types of households.Education and agricultural/occupational training increase household income， but have limited effects in reducing the income gap between two types of households.The effects of health， basic education and agricultural/occupational training vary by region and across different income sources.The findings suggest that improving human capital， especially health improvement， is an important mechanism to reduce rural poverty in China， but different policy focuses should been designed for different regions and across income sources.
Key Words：Education; Health; Anti-poverty; Quintile Regression
JEL Classification：I10， I21， I32

Abstract：It is to accurately understand the relationship between the formal sector and the informal sector in the rural households credit market that concerns the rural financial institutions being improved.Distinguished from the existing studies which focus on rural households‘ borrowing behaviour only， this paper uses the 987 rural households survey data of Zhejiang province in 2013 and the the quadri-variate probit model to examine the relationship between the formal sector and the informal sector when controlling rural households‘ demand for credit and another sector’ credit supply.The research findings indicated that：（1) The formal sector develops complementarily with the informal one， which is more distinct for richer borrowers.(2) Rural households participate the formal and informal credit market at the same time， while both sectors provide the loans for production and consumption equally and support the same borrower.(3) Both sectors have their own advantage， one will make use of the information elicited by the other’s behavior strategically.The above findings provide new ideas and empirical evidence to understand the relationship between the formal and informal credit sector and to design and improve the rural households credit policy.
Key Words：Rural Households Credit Market; Formal Sector; Informal Sector; Quadri-variate Probit Model
JEL Classification：O12， O16， O17

Abstract：For the existing mainstream neoclassical economic growth theory， the aggregate production function and the law of marginal productivity are questioned with falsity and logical paradox.The mainstream theory has lost income distribution and class analysis tradition which are attached great importance by the classical macroeconomic theory and Marx‘s economics.Therefore， a classical-Marx economic growth model is developed and given much application in the past ten years.This paper makes empirical analysis for the model with Chinese data in 1978—2012， showing that there is a Marx-Biased Technical Change with rising labor productivity and declining capital productivity， and the model is valid for Chinese economy， which means， in the assumption of constant wage share， the Chinese economy may run into the Marx Trend of increasing real wage rate and decreasing long-term profit rate.
Key Words： Classical-Marx Economic Growth Model; Marx-Biased Technical Change; Marx Trend
JEL Classification：D31， E11， O41