Abstract：Land reallocation is one of the most important characteristics of land tenure system in rural China. Based on the institutional change theory of NIE (New Institutional Economics), we analyze the institutional change and the regional difference of land reallocations in China with a unique longitudinal village survey data of 17 provinces from 1999 to 2010. We find econometric supports that the institutional change of land reallocations in rural China is of the characteristics of induced institutional change. The topography of villages, per capita GDP, and the ratio of non-agriculture products are significant factors deciding the institutional change of land reallocations. Then, the formal constraints of “no land reallocation” by central government and the gradual enforcement of the central policies result in the significant regional differences of land reallocations. Our results further suggest that the land titling will lead to less land reallocations and more secure land tenure.
Key Words：Land Reallocation; Land Tenure Security; Land Title; Institutional Change

Abstract：This paper develops an endogenous technological progress model based on the late-coming economy with advantages of backwardness, in which both domestic innovations and technological imports are essential for the productivity improvement. The main results of the model are: (1) the growth rate of the follower will converge to that of the leader, but the equilibrium difference of income level depends on the former's R&D efficiency, household preference and the production structure; (2) the evolution of income disparity between the developing and developed economy rests heavily on the change of technological gap rather than that of capital stock per efficiency labor; (3) the technological progress path in the lagging country, especially the relationship between the innovations and simulations, will decide the R&D structure choice; (4) the low technological level will bring down the real interest rate and do harm to the capital accumulation in the less-developed economy, by inducing a relative high capital level per efficiency labor; (5) the equilibrium intensity of R&D is related to not only the technological gap but also the profits of innovations, so the growth rate of follower's productivity will overshoot from the bottom at first and then converge to the steady state.
Key Words：Technological Gap; Innovation Path; R&D Efficiency; Economic Growth

Abstract：During the past four decades, the global economy has experienced a long-term decline of saving rate rather than “global saving glut”. Therefore, countries with higher saving rate should not be blamed for global imbalance. This paper focuses on two groups of countries, high-income and upper-middle income countries, which determine the dynamics of global economy. Based on some stylized facts relating to change of demography and saving rate, I build an overlapping-generations model to analyze the mechanism of decline of global saving rate and its relationship with global imbalance. The model and econometric tests show it's the behavior of group of high-income countries that decides the trend of global saving rate, while the group of upper-middle countries just reacts passively to that trend, although demographic dynamics of latter, especially its demographic dividend caused by the decreasing child dependency, make it possible for the former to decrease its saving rate. The asymmetry between the influences of these two groups of countries is the natural result of new “core-periphery” global model. Today's global crisis reflects the “exorbitant privilege” enjoyed by core countries, i.e. high-income countries, is not sustainable and the only way out of crisis will be the increase of saving rate of core countries. But the process of increasing saving rate has been proved difficult and the economic consequence of that increase is also highly uncertain.
Key Words：Saving Deficiency; Global Imbalance; Core-peripheral Model

Abstract:This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the Chinese economy under the “New Consensus” macroeconomic framework, based on inflation expectation and the issuing rate of central bank bills, for the first time in China. The model is estimated and analyzed with a multi-function system. The results are as follows: (1) inflation expectation is a major factor influencing inflation in China currently； (2) inflation expectation has a big impact on the Chinese real economy, while inflation itself has a much smaller influence on the real economy; (3) due to the strong impetus nature of the inflation expectation, unusual monetary tightening is needed to bring inflation expectation under full control, which will lead to the fluctuation of the real economy; (4) monetary policy should react promptly to inflation expectation shock to exert its full effect; (5) in the current transitory stage of quantity-oriented monetary policy to price-oriented monetary policy, the interest rate of central bank bills can act as a key indicator of the monetary policy measures.
Key Words:Inflation Expectation; Monetary Policy; “New Consensus” Macroeconomic Model

Abstract：Modern macroeconomic studies show that economic fluctuations behave business cycle comovement across the monthly, quarterly and annually economic indicators. Taking into account the key role of quarterly indicators such as GDP in macroeconomic analysis, this paper introduces an econometric model (called mixed-frequency Markov switching dynamic factor model) that could combine both monthly and quarterly indicators to model the business cycle. Though our empirical analysis on China's year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate and five monthly coincident indicators, we can not only identify business cycle phases from 1992 to 2011, but also extract a new coincident index to describe China's economic conditions. Furthermore, based on the real time data set we collected, this paper examines the reliability and timeliness of this model in identifying business cycle turning points and thus verifies its applicability for China.
Key Words：Business Cycle; Mixed-frequency Data; Regime Switching; Dynamic Factor Model; Real Time Analysis

Abstract：In transitional economy where fair competition lacks, corruption behaviors may help resource allocation which does benefit to firms. With the survey data of World Bank with regard to Chinese firms, we investigate the relationship between firm's corruption and its sales behavior, in which corruption is represented approximately by entertaining expenditure. We confirm that entertaining expenditure is surely used by firm as means of malfeasant competition because of the fact that the more entertaining expenditure, the more purchase orders it earns from government and state-owned enterprises. We rule out the alternative explanation derived from the hypothesis of normal relationship-capital investment, and control for the problem of endogeneity.
Key Words：Corruption; Entertaining Expenditure; Purchase Order; Transitional Economy

Abstract：Recent Melitz-type (2003) intra-industry heterogonous trade models argue that a firm's productivity has significant effects on the firm's exports. This paper examines how a firm's credit constraints as well as its productivity affect its export decisions. We imbed the firm's credit constraints into a Melitz-type general-equilibrium model by endogenizing the probability of the success of firm-specific projects. We show that, all else equal, it is easier for firms to enter the export market if (1) the probability of the success of their project is higher and consequently they have easier access to external finance from financial intermediaries; or (2) they are foreign invested firms and have lower credit constraints. We test these theoretical hypotheses using firm-level data from Chinese manufacturing industries and find strong evidence supporting the predictions of the model.
Key Words：Credit Constraints; Heterogeneous Firms; Productivity; Export

Abstract：The city's housing sale prices has increased rapidly than rent prices and the bubble of housing price becomes stably in China since 2003, which is called the Puzzle of City's Housing Price to Rent Scissors. This paper constructs house buyer's and renter's consumption choice theory model based on resident's tenure choice mechanism, empirically tests and explains the puzzle by dynamic panel model System-GMM using the panel data of 35 large and middle cities in China. The results demonstrate that residents are prone to buy house in tenure choice and that will boost the housing price to rent. Besides, the housing price to rent will decrease under adaptive expectation and increase under rational expectation. The increasing income gap among urban residents is the main factor to promote the housing price to rent. Take into account all the factor, the per-disposable income of urban residents has the most magnificent impact on the housing price to rent. Therefore, in order to cut down city's housing price to rent ratio and avoid the housing price bubble swelling and smashing, it needs to improve the income distribution system and reduce the income gap continuously, strengthen the management of housing price expectation, cultivate rental housing market, guide residents- reasonable housing consumption, and suppress the real estate investment and speculation.
Key Words：Housing Price to Rent; Scissors; Tenure Choice; Expectation; Income Inequality

Abstract：Based on sorting out the different definitions of labor income share, this paper establishes a production decision model with consideration of some factors including biased technology and monopoly profits, and reassesses the impact and determination mechanism of labor income share in the transition phase of China. For a single industry, monopoly profits are the main reason of the short time changes in labor income share, and biased technology is the key factor which decides the absolute level of labor income share. The main reason of the low labor income share in China is that SOEs which occupy large resources choose capital-biased technology. In the dual economy, the biased technology which is opposite to the resource endowments will lower the employment absorbing ability of economic growth and make the labor income be in the low growth state for a long time, and deteriorate the labor income share.
Key Words：Biased Technology; Monopoly Profits; Output Elasticity; Labor Income Share; Lewisian Turning Point

Abstract：For a long time,the research on TFP of Chinese energy mining industry usually uses the same framework as the other Industries, and ignoring its characteristics. Based on the cost function dual measurement methods, adding the special factors of resource depletion and production lags of capital investment and demand, the paper constructs a more comprehensive productivity measurement framework which includes the traditional factors of technical progress and return of scale. And taking the coal industry and the oil and gas industry for example, it makes an empirical research basing on the 1999—2010 provincial panel data sample. The results show that: the factors of resource depletion and production lags of capital are statistically significant. Meanwhile, the statistical properties of model added the two factors are better, and it may lead to misestimate the total factor productivity ignoring the two factors. In the sample period, the TFP of the two industry has a significant growth, with an average annual growth rate of 17.00% and 3.88% respectively, which demand growth and returns to scale make the greatest contribution to its growth.
Key Words：Total Factor Productivity；Resource Depletion；Production Lags of Capital Investment；Demand；Return to Scale

Abstract：Humans can be motivated not only by material (monetary) payoffs but also by morals, feelings, emotions or social norms in their daily decisionmakings, thus exhibit deviations from the material self-interested maximizing behaviors. Psychological game theory, based on belief-dependent motivations, has led to research fervor on emotional decision-makings. In Psychological games, players- utilities depend not only on the terminal material payoffs, but also directly depend on their psychological state triggered by their beliefs. This paper systematically reviews researches focused on belief-dependent motivations. After briefly presenting the fundamental framework of belief and psychological game theory, this paper summarizes and evaluates belief-dependent essential human motivations such as intention-based reciprocity, disappointment and guilt aversion, self-image and social image, anxiety and utility from anticipation, etc. We also discuss the main experimental and neuroscience evidences related to this topic. It is expected that as the research of belief and psychological games moves along, researches on emotional decision-makings, trust, institution, and non-market decisions will be greatly influenced, as well as the issue of multi-disciplinary unification.
Key Words：Belief-dependent Motivations; Psychological Game Theory; Emotions; Belief-elicitation Experiments