Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.47 Special Issue December,2012 |
• Income Inequality, Credit Supply and Consumption Volatility |
Abstract:This paper builds microscopic mechanism of the impact of income inequality on consumption volatility in the credit supply case, tests the impact of income inequality, financial development for the consumption volatility by using China’s provincial panel data. This study finds that: it shows a significant negative correlation between China’s income inequality and consumption volatility in the period 1988—1998 of relatively low level of economic development; it shows a significant positive correlation between China’s income inequality and consumption volatility in the 1999—2009 period of higher level of economic development. It shows negative relationship between credit supply and consumption volatility in all periods. Government to stabilize the growth of consumption need take measures to improve the uneven distribution of income status and promote financial development, in particular, to provide more financial services to low-income class.
Key Words:Income Inequality; Credit Supply; Consumption Volatility |
…………………………Gong Shien and Fan Conglai (4) |
• Regional Difference,Urban and Rural Income Inequality, Credit Level and Consumption |
Abstract:Through constructing the Theil index and household credit index,this paper aims to research the impact difference of income inequality,credit level on consumption in three regions, urban and rural areas. It is concluded that income and consumption has significantly positive relationship,but the difference is unapparent in urban,rural areas or regions. Nevertheless,credit level and income inequality are significantly positive and negative to consumption,and this relationship has regional difference,including urban and rural. The abolition of agricultural tax has beneficial impact on rural residents consumption,and the degree of this effect depends on the important level of agriculture in economy. The government should formulate more benefit policies to rural people and those people living in the central and western regions to promote consumption. On the other hand,it should optimize income allocation and continue to improve income level of rural and inland residents to reduce the income gap. Moreover,developing consumer finance to promote consumption is also available.
Key Words:Consumption;Credit;Consumer Finance;Income Inequality;Regional Difference |
…………………………Han Liyan and Du Chunyue(15) |
• Interest Structure and Resident Consumption |
Abstract:This study uses data from CGSS (China General Social Survey) to estimate the impact of interest structure on resident consumption. The key concepts of the study are income stratification and subjective social status identity. It is demonstrated that there is an “M” relationship rather than inverse “U” between marginal propensity to consume and income groups in recent years. The marginal propensity to consume of middle income groups has sunk and that of low income groups deteriorated in specific period which has a negative effect on the consumption. Besides, the lower social status identity restrains consumption and urban residents with Hukou has higher consumption propensity.
Key Words:Interest Structure; Resident Consumption; Income Stratification; Social Status Identity |
…………………………Yang Wenhui(28) |
• China’s Rural-Urban and Inter-provincial Per Capita Income and Consumption Data Highlight the Phenomenological Law |
Abstract:Through the analysis of the data, we find that: First, the provinces with more than 30,000 yuan per capita income have the urban-rural gaps in a low level but in a slight increase. The provinces with per capita income greater than 20,000 and less than 30,000 yuan have the urban-rural gap in a medium level but with a rise. The provinces with per capita income less than 20,000 yuan have a high gap and the gap increases first and then decreases. Second, in both urban and rural areas, while the gap between the rich and the poor is widening the gap between urban and rural consumption has shown a convergence trend , and the more developed regions, the smaller the gap between the rich and the poor, the more backward areas, the greater the gap between the rich and the poor. Urban consumption rate remained low. Rural consumption first increased and then got down.
Key Words:Per Capita Income; Gap between Rich and Poor; Consumption Ratio; Phenomenological; Logical Positivism |
…………………………Yang Hualei and Zhou Xiaobo(38) |
• Wealth Effect on Consumption: Evidence from China’s Household Survey Data |
Abstract:Using the micro dataset provided by China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper investigates the effect of housing wealth, financial wealth and other wealth components on household consumption. Our regression results show that owning houses, the value of houses and the level of financial wealth all have significant impact on households’ consumption, and the housing wealth effect is larger than financial wealth effect. Meanwhile, these effects differ on durables and non-durables: the housing wealth effect on non-durables is larger than that on durables; risk-free financial asset has larger impact on non-durables and risky assets have larger effect on durable goods. Furthermore, household age and family income can affect the wealth effect. We show that younger and lower-income households have larger wealth effect.
Key Words:Household Consumption; Housing Wealth; Financial Wealth; Wealth Effect |
…………………………Zhang Dayong and Cao Hong(53) |
• Economic Performance and Saving Behaviors of Urban Household——Evidence from a Survey of Consumer Finance of 24 Cities in China |
Abstract:The CCFR of Tsinghua University has conducted the third survey of consumer finance. This paper provides some analysis about the economic performance, saving behaviors, housing and pension account of urban household in China by using the survey data. We found that most household saved money for the emergencies, children’ education and pension. The economic performance has a significant impact on the amount of saving and its stability. The low-income household usually has fewer savings and pension, no housing and lack financial knowledge which makes them more likely fall into a distress after adverse shocks. How to provide financial education and financial services to them may be a problem to be solved in the future.
Key Words:Consumer Finance; Survey of Consumer Behavior; Savings |
…………………………Zhang Jinbao(66) |
• Customer Education Paradox and Mechanism from the Perspective of MOA: Evidence from the Fund Investors |
Abstract:For company offering complex and professional products, customer education will be useful to realize customer value transfer and gain competitive advantage. But the unresolved customer education paradox has hampered the strategic decision on customer education implementation. Through introduction of motivation-opportunityability model and investigation of fund investor, the result demonstrates that, customer education is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it will improve loyalty through switching motivation; on the other hand, it will decrease loyalty through switching ability and opportunity. Furthermore, switching motivation will moderate the relationship between switching ability, switching opportunity and loyalty. This paper shed some light on the implementation of customer education.
Key Words:Customer Education; Paradox; Motivation-Opportunity-Ability Model; Mechanism |
…………………………Huang Minxue, Zhou Xuechun and Wang Changzheng(80) |
• Research in the Effects of Institutions and Human Capital on Market Participation——Evidence from National Private Enterpriser Survey |
Abstract:Financial market participation research is foremost part of household finance researches. We applied the survey data of national private enterprisers household investment that conducted by CASS, theory and empirical analysis to see the effects of institutions, human capital on market participation (include market participation possibilities and depth of market participation). We found that:(1) institutional factors such as collectivism culture, financial market development, and human capital factors such as education, gender have positive effects on market participation; (2) institutional factors such as collectivism culture, development of financial market, and human capital factors such as education, gender, investors'sentiments have positive effects on depth of market participation; (3) women's cognitive pattern of risk-avoidance makes the market participation for men higher than women; with regard to depth of market participation,the gender gap disappeared, due to selection and survivorship.
Key Words:Institutions; Human Capital; Household Finance Market Participation; Survey Data |
…………………………Xiao Zuoping and Zhang Xinzhe(91) |
• Consumption and Financing Choice of SMEs with an Equity-for-Guarantee Swap |
Abstract:Under the assumption that SMEs are risk-averse, we develop a consumption utility-based pricing model for corporate securities, risk premiums and the capital structure incorporating endogenous borrowing constraints with an equity-for-guarantee swap. We solve the model by dynamic programming and risk premiums are presented analytically. We find that idiosyncratic business risk for a risk-averse entrepreneur has impact on consumption, portfolio allocation and financing choice of the entrepreneur. The more risk-averse the entrepreneur is, the higher the leverage will be and the less the entrepreneur will consume. A risk-averse entrepreneur will invest less in market portfolio, default earlier to hedge downside risk and demand a higher idiosyncratic risk premium to mitigate the shock of idiosyncratic business risk on investment and consumption.
Key Words:Equity-for-Guarantee Swap; Consumption Utility Indifference Prices; Risk Premiums; Capital Structure |
…………………………Zhang Hai and Yang Zhaojun(105) |
• Research of the Microscopic Mechanism of House Price Change on Macroeconomic Fluctuation |
Abstract:By introducing consumers' investment decision into RBC theory, the microscopic mechanism of house price change on macroeconomic fluctuations has been found that the current macroeconomic fluctuation depends not only on its lag phase, but also on the current and two lags of house price. Furthermore, this mechanism passes empirical test conducted by VAR model as well, and presents effective test results: the positive fluctuation of house price will drag GDP to a substantial degree in a short time, but the drag isn't continuous and reduce to zero gradually within three years.
Key Words:House Price Change; Macroeconomic Fluctuation; Investment Decision; RBC Theory |
…………………………Yang Junjie(117) |
• Valuation Models with Closed Form Solutions for Derivatives in a Consumer Finance Market with Systematic Jump Risks |
Abstract:The non-diversifiable jump risk is fatal to economic security. However, the traditional pricing theory of financial derivatives focused mostly on derivatives dependent on prices of traded assets, and seldom cared about other influence caused by other uncertain factors that are not tradable on securities markets. But actually, the prices of derivatives will be changed under the influence of climate and other multiple correlated or uncorrelated factors. Some of these factors will cause systematic risks that can not be diversified away. Correspondingly, in this paper, we mainly introduce a unified method to discuss derivatives pricing problems in a consumer finance market under the circumstances mentioned previously, and deduce a general valuation model for the derivatives whose underlying variables are not traded assets, but with non-diversifiable risk. And this methodology has been extended to the situation when the underlying state variables change with jumps, i.e., the state variables may reveal sudden and rare breaks logically accounted for by exogenous events on information. We also study the pricing model when the equations of underlying state variables are nonlinear and derive a general valuation equation for derivatives. Furthermore, as compared with Merton (1976, 1994) and other scholars'work, the unified pricing methodology given by us studies not only diversifiable jump risk, but also nondiversifiable jump risk, i.e., this valuation methodology can be used to cope with diversifiable jump risk which is nonsystematic as well as non-diversifiable jump risk which is systematic. And we also introduce a key term, which was neglected by former researchers of derivatives pricing, to demonstrate the tremendous effects of non-diversifiable jump imposed on the derivatives'value. We also show that the consumption will lower the expected growth rate of derivative price. Finally, closed form solutions are deduced under some conditions. The methodology used in this paper is valid not only in the consumer finance market but also in the general financial market.
Key Words:Consumer Finance Market; State Variable; Derivatives; Non-diversifiable Jump Risk; General Valuation (or Pricing) Equation |
…………………………Jin Gan(128) |
• Behavioral Finance Mechanism of Insurance Promoting Economic Growth |
Abstract:Insurance consumption is key factor in economic growth. The effect of insurance driving economic growth and improveing industry investment conditions is not paied enough attention. Insurance policy is regarded as common consumption goods in this paper. An endogenous economic growth dynamic model with a generalized capital containing insurance consumption goods is developed in this study. Results show that the mechanism of the insurance in promoting the economics growth and stabilizing the economic is very complicated. It is found that insurance either enters into the production field in the form of production cost or enters into the consumer fields in the form of family and government service consumption, as a small part of embedded investment in materialized labor cost and living labor cost. It is found that the more educated people have higher insurance consumption rate, resulting that the contribution of the embedded insurance consumption of the living labor is larger than the contribution of the embedded insurance consumption of the materialized labor and the contribution of the physical capital. It is also found that the promotion effect of insurance consumption on the economic growth is gradually increased with a long duration.
Key Words:Insurance Consumption;Economic Growth;Behavioral Finance Mechanism |
…………………………Pu Chengyi and Pan Xiaojun(139) |
• The Factors and the Determinants of Life Insurance Demand: Why Is the Demand for Life Insurance So Low? |
Abstract:The development of Insurance Industry in China is very low, and the aging society will potentially increase the demand for life insurance. Based on the theoretical model, some of the factors are selected to analyze the possible impact. We built the panel data, and applied the empirical analysis. The research shows, the total population burden was negatively with the demand; the social insurance expenditure, urbanization level, and education level increased such demand, but per capita GDP, average saving had no significant effect. There are some differences in the life insurance demand between US and China.
Key Words:Life Insurance Demand; Aging Society; Population Burden; Social Insurance |
…………………………Zhong Chunping, Chen Jing and Sun Huanmin(148) |
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