| Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.45 No.8 August, 2010 |
| • Credibility of Monetary Policy and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Based on the Analysis of New-political Economy |
| Focusing on the credibility of monetary policy induced by the interest inhomogeneity between a policy-maker and the public, this paper,applying Stackelberg game theory to the framework of new-political economy,theoretically proved the relations between choice of exchange rate regime and credibility of monetary policy.Our analysis offered a formal explanation that the fixed exchange rate regimes can exist and perform well for a long period of time in some developing countries and the intermediate exchange rate regimes are shrinking.The theoretical results were tested by using 162 countries related data.According to the above theoretical and empirical research,we draw a series of important conclusions,research enlightments and policy implications. |
| …………………………Lu Jiye and Du Liangsheng16 |
| • Chinese Banks Generalized Malmquist Productivity Index |
| Based on the data of Chinese banks for the 1999—2008 periods,we examine the Chinese banks total factor productivity growthTFP by employing an output-oriented stochastic distance function.Also we examine impact factors on technical inefficiency.We find1 The reforms of financial system have significant influences on Chinese banks total factor productivity growth.Especially for the earlier stage,the changes of technical efficiency contribute most to TFP growthespecially for earning profit2 On earning profit,all banks production frontier expands.Especially for later stage,technical progress contributes most to TFP growth.On expanding business,technical progress slows down and the banks depend more on scale efficiency.3 On average,the changes of technical efficiency and technical progress contribute most to TFP growth on earning profit.On expanding business,for big banksBig-four stated-owned commercial banks and Joint-equity commercial banks,scale efficiency contributes most to TFP growth;for CCBCity commercial bank,the changes of technical efficiency contribute most to TFP growth.4 The scale elasticity is larger for larger banks,exhibiting scale effects. |
| …………………………Zhang Jianhua and Wang Peng128 |
| • Effects of Rural Vocational Education on the Income of Rural Households——An Empirical Study of Rural Households in Northern Jiangsu Province |
| This paper discusses the contribution of human capital to the income of rural households by studying the return of rural vocational education.It is well known that education has been a hot topic of labor economics for decades,and there is a large literature on this subject,such as the return of university education, the return of adult reemployment training and so on.However,the discussion on the return of vocational education in countryside is seldom seen in empirical research.This paper is exactly an empirical analysis of the contribution of this kind of education in countryside to rural households.Based on the survey data of 416 farmer households in the northern Jiangsu Province,by applying the treatment effect model,we find that the return which the vocational education brings for the rural households is around 27%,which shows that the vocational education can definitely increase rural households income. |
| …………………………Zhou Yahong，Xu Lingli and Xia Zhengqing55 |
| • Limited Rationality, Animal Spirit and Market Crash: Experiments on Emotional Volatility and Trading Behavior |
| Emotion is an important factor attributing to trading behavior and volatility of asset prices in capital market.Unfortunately,there is little study to address this issue.Our paper aims at filling the vacancy in literature through conducting psychological experiments to examine linkage between investors emotion,trading behavior and asset pricing.The results show that when asset prices are close to the peak emotion volatility will significantly affect asset prices,while both are mainly determined by fundamental economic information.On the other hand,when the asset prices approach the bottom,trading behavior is more likely to be affected by fundamental economic information,not by emotional changes.Experiments reveal that there exists remarkable asymmetrical "irrationality" and "over-rationality" in the extreme market conditions.These findings add psychological evidence to behavioral asset pricing theory. |
| …………………………Lin Shu and Yu Qiao115 |
| • Chinas Carbon Dioxide Emissions under the Urbanization Process: Influence Factors and Abatement Policies |
| China is in its urbanization stage.As the largest carbon emission country both in term of quantity and incremental,China faces increasing international pressure in carbon reduction.However,its urbanization development stage makes carbon emission reduction very difficult and the abatement policies for the current development stage become very urgent.In view of the characters reflected in Chinas current urbanization stage and Chinas birth control policy,this article makes some amendments of Kaya identity by introducing the effect of urbanization to study the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in the current development stage,and therefore has practical policy implications.The long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and explanatory variables is studied by the method of co-integration.Applying Monte Carlo simulation,we provide a dynamic explanation and forecast of Chinas carbon dioxide emission growth as well as its distribution based on the assumed probability distributions for each explanatory variables.For China,the more realistic and feasible means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are controlling pace of urbanization process and utilize urbanization as a process for energy conservation,reducing energy intensityby energy conservation and improving energy structureby increasing the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure.Strategically,Chinas low carbon transition will rely mainly on energy conservation,while clean energy development subsidiary. |
| …………………………Lin Boqiang and Liu Xiying66 |
| • Does Domestic Market Segmentation Push Chinese Firms Exporting |
| From the different viewpoint between local firms and foreign-owned firms in Chinese home market,the paper analyses how domestic market segmentationDMS to influence in firms exporting.We found that DMS enhences local firms exporting and in those provinces in which the degree of DMS is deeper the local firms which have lower productivity and R&D ability and higher capital intensity are potential to exporting.On the contrary,Foreign-owned firms exporting is not suffering from DMS.More found is those local firms whose R&D ability or productivity is lower are potential to exporting and foreign-owned firms whose R&D ability or productivity is higher are potential to sale in Chinese home market.Therefore,foreign-owned firms rely on rapidly increasing home market to get developing opportunity,which made the gap of competitive ability between local firms and foreign-owned firms.Morever,local firms developing ability in Chinese home market was limited. |
| …………………………Zhang Jie，Zhang Peili and Huang Taiyan29 |
| • Chinas Human Capital Measurement and Index Construction |
| It is generally agreed that human capital is a source of economic growth,innovation and sustainable development for any society,yet its measurement is still an on-going research.In this study,we measure human capital in China with modified Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income approach.We estimate Chinas total human capital stock and per capita human capital from 1985 to 2007,construct various human capital indexes,and make projections up to 2020.Our results show that Chinas total and per capita human capital have grown rapidly,but compared to GDP and physical capital,the relative weights of human capital are declining.The gap in per capita human capital between China and developed countries is large. |
| …………………………Li Haizheng, Liang Yunling, Barbara Fraumeni, Liu Zhiqiang and Wang Xiaojun42 |
| • Insurance Growth Level, Structure and Influencing Factors: An International Comparison Perspective |
| In consideration of the limitations of the traditional methods for international insurance comparison,we propose in this paper a new paradigm.First, based on the "ordinary growth model",we construct the "Benchmark Ratio of Insurance Penetration"BRIP as a new index for international insurance comparison.Second,we put forward the "adjusted growth model",and then introduce the "trichotomy" of insurance growth structure based on this model.Third,by comparing the two models,we investigate the respective roles of economic factors and institutional factors in the insurance growth.The main findings are as follows.First,as the new indicator BRIP indicates,for the emerging countries,the benchmark-adjusted insurance growth level is significantly higher than the insurance growth level measured by traditional methods;and for the developed countries,the benchmark-adjusted insurance growth level is significantly lower than the insurance growth level measured by traditional methods.Second,from the perspective of growth structure,the insurance growth in developed countries is mainly driven by the economic factors,while that in emerging countries is largely driven by the institutional factors.Third,as the economy develops,the contribution of the institutional factors to the insurance growth would gradually decrease,and the economic factors would play a more active role in the insurance growth. |
| …………………………Zheng Wei, Liu Yongdong and Deng Yiting141 |
| • The “Sub-optimal” Debt Contract and Governance Performance: Empirical Study Based on the Dynamic Panel Data |
| The unique institutional architecture determining the debt contract in the corporate governance system has a special significance against the background in Chinese transitional period,which is helpful for us to understand the incompleteness of the debt contract and the interaction mechanism with corporate governance system.This paper adopts the dynamic panel data approach to carry out an in-depth study on the sub-optimal characteristics of debt governance mechanism using sample of Chinese listed companies.Conclusion shows that although the governance performance of debt contract to curb the problem of soft budget constraint is not so significant,it can inhibited the "tunnel effect" significantly,not acting a tool to invade the benefits of minority shareholders,which verifies the sub-optimal features of debt governance in Chinas transitional period.Besides,along with the advent of market-based reform,the governance performance of debt contract has also been continuously improved. |
| …………………………Tian Kan, Li Zeguang and Chen Yufeng90 |
| • The Potential Economic Growth of China with Restraint of Low Carbon Economy |
| This paper established a growth accounting frame with environmental factor for the purpose of exploring the economic implication of carbon emission reduction scheme systemically,and discussed some key features of long-term growth of China based on it.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1The rate of potential GDP has grown,on average,at the rate of 9.5% since the Reform and Opening up,and about 1.3 percent gained at the cost of pollution.2The restraints of low carbon economy and demographic transition would depress the rate of potential GDP below 8%,and the shock of carbon emission reduction could not be absorbed by the existing production pattern.3Technical progress and industrial transformation would be crucial to the future sustainable growth. |
| …………………………Yuan Fuhua79 |
| • The Control Right of Ultimate Controlling Shareholder and Overinvestment of Free Cash Flow |
| This paper studies controlling shareholders expropriation and corporate governance through the perspective of investment.Theoretically this paper builds up two-period dynamic model to study overinvestment and expropriation,and finds out that the existence of controlling shareholder results to overinvestment,separation of control right and cash flow right further strenthens this action,and free cash flow also has positve effect to overinvestment.The improvement of cash flow right and corporate governance could constrain overinvestment.Empirically based on Richardson2006,this paper uses the panel data of 2004—2007 to verify the theoretical predictions,and finds out that separation of control right and cash flow right has significant positive impact to overinvestment,and when the company is controlled by government,overinvestment is more serious.This paper explains the phenomena of high-level but low-efficiency investment since China economic reform,and also privides evidences for controlling shareholders expropriation from the perspective of investment. |
| …………………………Yu Honghai, Xu Longbing and Chen Baizhu103 |
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