Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.45 No.1 January, 2010 |
• An Economic Analysis of Consumption and Carbon Emission Responsibility |
Abstract:The globalization has been imposing great challenges on allocating greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement responsibilities across countries. From a dynamic perspective, we propose the idea of allocating the emission responsibility based on the ultimate consumption, analyze the relationship between ultimate consumption and carbon emission, and measure the consumption-based carbon emission across all the countries from 1950 to 2005 in two scenarios. Our analysis suggests that about 14%—33% (maybe more than 20%)of China’saccumulative domestic emission is induced by the others’ consumption, whereas most developed countries are on the contrary. Based on the new concept of consumption-based carbon emissions, we extend the UNFCCC concept of ‘the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’ to allocate fair carbon-consumption rights across countries and propose using a consumption-based carbon-emission right as an important indicator in a future GHG burden-sharing framework.
Key Words:Climate Change; Consumption-based Carbon Emission; Carbon-Consumption Rights
JEL Classification:Q54, H23, P14 |
…………………………Fan Gang, Su Ming and Cao Jing (4) |
• International Trade, Pollution Industry Transfer and Chinese Industries’ CO2 Emissions |
Abstract:By trade, developed countries may specialize in “clean” product and import pollution products from developing countries, then transfer the pollution industries to developing countries. If China has become Pollution Industry Haven by trade, what is the effect of trade on Chinese’s CO2 Emissions? The article explores it by using the Environmental Input-Output Technique and the trade data between twenty industries of China and G7 countries and OECD. We find that International Trade may decrease the industries’ CO2 Emissions.
Key Words:International Trade; Pollution Industry Transfer; CO2 Emissions
JEL Classification:F140,F415 |
…………………………Li Xiaoping and Lu Xianxiang (15) |
• Measuring China’s Economy: The Proper Use of PPP Methods |
Abstract:This article uses Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) price data from the World Bank 2005 International Comparison Program to compare China with other major countries in terms of real economic size, economic structure, as well as development level. The article presents the proper usage of PPP prices and Market Exchange Rates, and points out several common misuses of PPPs in measuring and comparing China's relative international wealth and power. Using the PPP data, the article examines differences in real aggregate productivity, living standards, investment expenditures, and price level of major countries in the world. Furthermore, we have constructed a variable, the Relative Manufactured Goods Price, to characterize the industrialization level of one country. Employing sector-level PPP data, the article compares the total expenditure within various
sectors by China and India in 2005, offering insights on both the utility and the limits of PPP analysis in comparing relative
development level and comparative advantage in the two economies.
Key Words:Purchasing Power Parities (PPP); International Comparison Program; China's Economy
JEL Classification:E100,O500 |
…………………………George J. Gilboy and Zhong Ninghua (27) |
• How Stable Is the Money Demand of China in the Long Run? |
Abstract:A stable money demand is the basic condition of effective monetary policy. Considering that the China’s economy is becoming more and more open, the paper intensively explored China’s money demand in 1987—2008 considering money substitution effect, by using the Bounds Testing method which is suitable for any kind of time series data(Ⅰ(0) or Ⅰ(1)). Our main finding is as following: Primarily, China’s money demand is better captured by considering exchange rate and international interest rate into money model; as the targeting goal of central bank, M1 is better than M2 before 1996, while it is converse after 1996. Furthermore, the money substitution effect and capital flow effect are obvious although the capital account has still been under control in China. The depreciation (appreciation) expectation of RMB could significantly decrease (increase) households and enterprises’ demand for RMB, which indicates that it will be more difficult for China’s central bank to keep independent monetary policy as well as control exchange rate at the same time.
Key Words:Money Demand; Exchange Rate Expectation; Capital Flow; NDF; Bounds Testing
JEL Classification:F031,F820,F831 |
…………………………Wan Xiaoli, Huo Deming and Chen Binkai (39) |
• Saving Rate and Trade Pattern in Long-run under Oligopolistic Market Structure |
Abstract:This paper constructs a two-factor and two-product dynamic model to analyze the relationship between saving rate and trade pattern in long-run under oligopolistic market structure. We have showed that if oligopolys in different countries will have equal output in equilibrium, then the country with a higher saving rate will have a higher capital-labor ratio in long-run equilibrium, and export capital-intensive goods, import labor-intensive goods, and vice versa. Our conclusion implies that high saving rate is crucial for the industrialization process. So the positive effect of high saving rate on our economic growth should not be underestimated in current time.
Key Words:Oligopoly; Saving Rate; Trade Pattern; Factor Endowment
JEL Classification:D43,F11,F12 |
…………………………Xing Xiaobing and Zhu Zhongdi (55) |
• The Dual Margin of China Export Growth and Its Determinants |
Abstract:The financial crisis exposes sufficiently the vulnerability when China export growth faces the external shock. Based on the heterogeneous firm trade model, using the HS-6 international trade data in 1995—2005, this paper describes the stylized facts of the dual margin of China export growth. We find that, whether on the multilateral or on the bilateral, China export growth mainly depends on the intensive trade margin, the extensive trade margin is very little. The obvious bias to the intensive trade margin of China export growth structure help us understand why the external shock like financial crisis can easily affect China export and the continuous deterioration of the terms of trade even though there is a period of export boom. So, China export growth should turn quickly to the extensive trade margin. Furthermore, using Tobit model, the empirical research shows that there is no common impact mechanisms on the dual trade margin, or exists the difference to some extent. The conclusion will not only provide the more credible empirical support for the above explanation, but also the abundant policy meanings for the trade structure reform.
Key Words:Heterogeneous Firm; Dual Margin; External Shock; Export Volatility; Terms of Trade
JEL Classification:F140, F430 |
…………………………Qian Xuefeng and Xiong Ping (65) |
• Empirical Evidence on the Regional Spillover Effects of FDI in China |
Abstract:Using data of Chinas regions for the period of 1986—2008,this paper has developed a spatial dynamic econometric model to analyze regional effects of foreign direct investment. Our key result shows that foreign presence generates spillovers,both “intra-regional” and“inter-regional”. This suggests that presence of multinational enterprises in one region stimulates productivity of not only its own region but also other regions. Other findings include evidence of the role of “learning by doing” and of inter-dependency of output between regions in enhancing regional economic growth. The key findings of the paper have important policy implications.
Key Words: FDI;“Intra-regional” Spillovers;“Inter-regional” Spillovers; Panel Data
JEL Classification:F230 |
…………………………Zhong Changbiao (80) |
• Can the Hyper-normal Development of Institutional Investors Stabilize the Market? |
Abstract:Along with the great boom in the equity market since the end of 2005, China’s fund industry has witnessed a leapfrog development. This paper examines the relationship between the quick expansion of the fund industry and the market volatility both from the macroeconomic level with TARCH model and from the microeconomic level with panel data model. Our empirical study shows that the leapfrog development of the fund industry fails to lead to a more stable and rational market. On the basis of the empirical results, the paper reflects on the leapfrog development of the fund industry and brings forwards three necessary conditions to make sure that the institutional investors would help to stabilize the market against the backdrop of the weak fiduciary responsibilities concepts, the serious conflicts of interest, the inadequate supervision over the fund industry and fund investors’ immaturity.
Key Words:Fund; Volatility; TARCH Model; Panel Data
JEL Classification:G14, G23 |
…………………………Cai Qingfeng and Song Youyong (90) |
• Trade Credit, Credit Constraints and Impacts on Efficiency: Empirical Evidences from China |
Abstract: In view of abstract production function, this paper seeks to address the questions what kinds of efficiency trade credit impacts on and how. We propose a two-staged econometric method which makes definite differences from previous researches. In the first stage, a novel financing constraints measurement in perspective of investment efficiency is first applied. Using a sample of 176 listed companies’ 8 periods data from Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, we present concrete evidences on trade credit’s role of easing financing constraints where the “one-step” technique under frontier stochastic model is utilized. And in the second stage, Malmquist-DEA is first used to derive different kinds of efficiency. Then impacts of financing constraints on different kinds of efficiency are econometrically analyzed. Scale efficiency is found to be most influenced by financing constraints. Combining the results of two stages together, we argue that by financing constraints easing, trade credit can significantly improve scale efficiency; and it can exert even more improvement on scale efficiency than bank loans by the resources-allocation mechanism.
Key Words:Trade Credit; Financing Constraints; Scale Efficiency; Stochastic Frontier Function; DEA.
JEL Classification:O160, O330 |
…………………………Shi Xiaojun and Zhang Shunming (102) |
• Estimating China’s Output Gap Based on Wavelet Denoising and Quarterly Data |
Abstract:Using wavelet and quarterly data from 1992 to 2009, the paper estimates the output gap of China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the output gap estimated using quarterly data fluctuated more frequently than using yearly data. (2) The output gap fluctuated markedly before 1998Q2, but smoothly after 1998Q2. (3) The frequency of the output gap’s fluctuation is decreasing, and the lasting time of the business cycle is increasing. (4) The decreasing trend of the economy since 2008Q2 has not presented any appearances of turnover. Moreover, the paper proved that the wavelet is more excellent than other methods on estimating the output gap.
Key Words:Wavelet Denoising;Quarterly Data;Output Gap
JEL Classification:E100, C490 |
…………………………Yang Tianyu and Huang Shufen (115) |
• The Dual Efficiency Loss of State-Owned Enterprises and Economic Growth |
Abstract: The State-Owned Enterprises’ (SOEs) efficiency loss can be divided into two kinds: First is the efficiency loss of the SOEs,Second is the further efficiency loss brought about by the SOEs’ efficiency loss itself. On the basis of the survive predicament of the SOEs,this paper introduces a new concept of “Economic growth cumbrance” to investigate the SOEs’ efficiency loss again. The view developed in our paper is that the SOEs do not only have efficiency loss in itself but also drag the Private enterprises’ (PEs) development because of the government protection on the SOEs,and the whole economic growth would be dragged. The direction we indicate is that it is a inevitable way to take further step in the SOEs reform.
Key Words:Efficiency of SOEs;Survive Predicament;Government Protection;Soft Budget Constraint;Economic Growth Cumbrance
JEL Classification:E620, L330, O100 |
…………………………Liu Ruiming and Shi Lei (127) |
• On the Operation Nature and Income of Tenant Farm by Comparison in Modern China |
Abstract: There has been an accepted theory making the economic and historical misunderstanding that the nature and income of tenants were similar to the farmhand, both of them working for the landlord. Actually, the tenant household had become variety of independent farms to create wealth by assembling production factors from his own household, outside landlord and market through personal and impersonal transaction. From the uncertainty of the farm, tenants got the residual claim, entrepreneurial reward and risk revenue. The future reward of their investment in the land and farm could be realizable value by transactions of property right. All of them, comparatively, kept away from the farmhands. The allocation of production factors promoted efficient economy and productive land by transaction of property rights and rent institution. It is a key to understand the energy of tenant farm and small peasant economy in traditional China.
Key Words: Tenant Farm Operation;Residual Claim;Farmhand;Income Comparison;Allocation of Resource
JEL Classification:N55,M13,O15 |
…………………………Long Denggao and Peng Bo (138) |
• A Multi-Objective Decision Model of Farmers’ Crop Production |
Abstract: Farmers’ production decision is based on multiple objectives, including profit maximization, risk minimization, and saving family labor input. Appropriate estimation of weights for multiple objectives is challenge. The conventional approach to estimate the weights often follows Goal Programming, GP. In this paper a new approach, an Adjusted measure based on the First-Order Condition, AFOC, is developed. Based on primary household survey data, we estimate the weights for representative (or average) farmer as well as two different clustered representative farmers. Simulation results demonstrate that the multi-objective decision model based on AFOC estimation performs better than the one based on GP. The estimated weights show that profit is farmer’s first objective, which is followed by saving family labor input and then risk aversion. Farmers with more income from crop sector have higher weights for profit and risk aversion than the other farmers with less income from crops. The weights for objectives change over time. As the off-farm participation rose, the weight for family labor
input has been increasing, while others have been falling.
Key Words:Multi-objective; Decision Model; Crop Production; Weights
JEL Classification:Q120 |
…………………………Liu Ying and Huang Jikun (148) |
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