Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.44 No.8 August, 2009 |
• Toward A Theory of Optimal Financial Structure in Economic Development |
Abstrat:The factor endowments of an economy at each stage of its development determine the optimal industrial structure in the real sector,which in turn constitutes the main determinant of the size distribution and risk features of viable enterprises at that stage.Meanwhile,each institutional arrangement in the financial system has both advantages and disadvantages in mobilizing savings,allocating capital,and diversifying risks when facilitating financial transactions.Therefore,there exists endogenously determined optimal financial structure for the economy at each stage of development. |
…………………………Justin Yifu Lin,Sun Xifang and Jiang Ye(4) |
• Internal and External Imbalance and Chinas Fiscal and Tax Policy Reform |
Abstrat:Chinas huge current account has become an important influence factor for its sustainability development.Through the analysis for the reasons of the external imbalance,this paper tries to state that it has close relation with internal imbalance,which is characterized by low consumption and high saving rate.The latter can be accused of too much dividends of Stated-owned enterprises and not sharing out bonus with ministry of finance.This paper suggests that the relative fiscal and tax policy reform will solve the above problems. |
…………………………Fan Gang,Wei Qiang and Liu Peng(18) |
• An Analytical Framework of China Foreign Exchange Reserves:Based on Financial Stability and Appropriate Scale |
Abstrat:The literature of appropriate foreign exchange reserves based on the financial stability is the research focus at home and abroad.We try to build a analytical framework including foreign exchange reserves,financial instability,capital flow and the real economy variables.We try to use the theoretical model and empirical methods exploring the impact on foreign exchange reserves in emerging market economies of the relevant factors and simulating the size of China foreign exchange reserves desired.The relevant findings show that,if the domestic financial instability and capital flow become larger,foreign exchange reserves in the amount of broad money will increase in proportion.The marginal impact of the financial instability and the real economic situation on the foreign exchange reserves have shown a gradual decline posture and it is indicated that the role of foreign exchange reserves is limited.In addition,the simulation results show that under the premise of ensuring domestic financial stability,the total amount of China foreign exchange reserves are not excessive.It is in the desired appropriate range interval. |
…………………………Li Wei and Zhang Zhichao(27) |
• Efficiency of Insurance Fund Utilization in Chinas Insurance Companies:A Resource-Based Two-Stage DEA Model |
Abstrat:This paper measures the efficiencies and their evolution of the whole process of insurance fund utilization as well as the two sub-processes for the 246 insurance companies in China from 1999 to 2006 by using a resource-based two-stage DEA model.Compared with the traditional DEA models,the resource-based two-stage DEA model is capable of identifying the causes of inefficiency in the insurance fund utilization more accurately.Our studies find that the efficiency scores per year are not high,not only in the fund raising stage and profitability stage,but also in the overall process of insurance fund utilization.Compared with the foreign insurance companies,the efficiency advantage of domestic insurance companies shows a V-shaped trend,which reflects that the efficiency advantage in the fund raising stage is no longer obvious,while the efficiency advantage in the profitability stage is gradually decreasing and has been exceeded by the foreign companies.This paper further finds significant inefficiency in the profitability stage for the life insurance companies,although they have efficiency advantage in the fund raising stage;domestic property insurance companies have faced severe challenges in both the fund raising stage and profitability stage. |
…………………………Huang Wei(37) |
• Private Information Arbitrage in Chinese Stock Market:A Study Based on R2 |
Abstrat:R2is the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted for by a statistical model.Roll1988 has successfully introduced R2into the analysis of information problem in stock market.Afterwards,R2 has been widely applied in various studies on financial market.However,in some cases,Rolls R2 is misunderstood and brings controversial results.Our paper has thoroughly reviewed current literatures on R2 and justifies that R2 can be used as a proxy for measuring private information arbitrage activities in the stock market.In this paper,140 out of SHSE 180 stocks have been analyzed and the results show that1 most of them have encountered the problem of private information arbitrage.And 60% among these stocks might experienced serious arbitrage problem.2 Also,our panel analysis on the determinants of private information arbitrage shows that the ownership of prime shareholder,the percentage of non-tradable shares will significantly reduce R2 and hence increase arbitrage opportunity.While institutional investors,stock market reformation,sizes of listed companies will increase R2 and reduce arbitrage opportunity. |
…………………………Feng Yongfu,Dong Yan,Yuan Zebo and Yang Renmei(50) |
• Trust,Transaction Cost and Mode of Trade Credit |
Abstrat:This paper investigates how trust,as an informal institution,affects corporate transaction cost and financial structure.Using trust index of different provinces in China,we find that differences of trust level in different regions of China cause different contract forms in different regions.The lower the regional trust level,the higher transaction costs of firms in that region.We prove this relationship between trust level and transaction costs because we find that firms in regions with a lower trust level use trade credit mode with higher transaction costs such as prepayments or notes payable and have more selling expenses and discounts per sales revenue.The conclusion of this paper supports that the local trust environment influences transaction behaviors and contract structure of firms and also indicates that trust has the same vital economic significance to firms as formal institutions.This paper also verifies the transmission characteristics of trust between "groups" and "individual",which is practically significant for us to understand the interest relationship between the "groups" and "individual". |
…………………………Liu Fengwei; Li Lin and Xue Yunkui(60) |
• Economic Geography and Inequality of Regional Wages |
Abstrat:Can the spatial distribution of demand explain inequality of regional wages Using multi-regional input-output table in 1997 and market access method of Redding and Venables2004,we calculate market access of 215 prefectural level cities in China.Based on New Economic Geography model and calculation of market access,we find that:1.market access varies greatly among prefectural level cities;2.elasticity coefficient of wages with respect to market access is about 22%—32%.Based on empirical research above,we argue that,regional difference of market access results in wage inequality,and the former is closely related with insufficiency of labor mobility and displays that rural labor is no longer infinitely supplied. |
…………………………Fan Jianyong and Zhang Yan(73) |
• Spread-backwash and Market Area Effects of Urban and Regional Growth in China |
Abstrat:Based on growth pole and central place theories,this paper proposes a spatial simultaneous equation system of non-agricultural GDP,employment,and fixed capital growths to analyze spread-backwash and market area effects among 2169 cities and counties in China except for Tibet over 2000—2007 period.The simultaneous equation estimates indicate that although factor inputs,production scale,human capital,and local factors are the primary determinants of non-agricultural GDP,employment,and fixed capital growths,there exist significant spatial spillovers between different hierarchical levels of cities and counties.Provincial capitals and prefecture level cities exert significant backwash effect on the neighboring lower level cities and counties,while lower level cities and counties contribute to the growth of higher level cities and cities and counties of the same hierarchical levels affect each other positively.In conclusion,the paper briefly discusses policy implications of the research findings. |
…………………………Ke Shanzi(85) |
• Determinants of Export in Chinese Local Manufacturing Firm |
Abstrat:With the questionnaires from 342 local companies,we conclude that intra-product division,enterprises size and location have positive effects on Chinas manufacturing companies export competitiveness,while there is no such crucial impact from other factors strengthened by classical trade theory such as technology innovation,human capital and capital intensity.In the context of Chinas economic transformation,institutional factors play an important role on local companies expansion of export,which shows itself in the promotion to small-scaled companies export.Chinas local enterprises have an advantage in its conciliatory income of so-called clustering effect,a side effect of which is that they can also lock local enterprises in the bottom of industrial chain and block their further improvement in export competitiveness ability. |
…………………………Liu Zhibiao and Zhang Jie(99) |
• Higher Education Reform,Precautionary Saving and Consumer Behavior |
Abstrat:Substantial empirical researches show that households in China have high incentive of precautionary saving;however,few micro-data-based studies on the reasons accounting for this incentive have been made.Based on the CHIP dataset,cross-section analysis demonstrates that higher education reform in 1999 has a significant Squeeze-out effect on household consumption,and marginal propensity to consume of households with members attaining higher education had decreased by 12 percent from 1995 to 2002.Under the Life Cycle Model frame,a theoretical model is constructed with education being introduced in.Simulation analysis indicates that anticipation of increasing uncertainty as a result of higher education reform is the main reason that accounts for the higher incentive of precautionary saving and thus the sluggish consumption demand in China. |
…………………………Yang Rudai and Chen Binkai(113) |
• Analysis of Signaling Game for Medical Credence Goods |
Abstrat:This paper builds a signaling game model to describe excess treatment in medical market from viewport of credence goods.In basic model,it is proved that the end of the game will be separating or pooling equilibrium,determined by the proportion of serious patients.In pooling equilibrium,there is cheat behavior of excess treatment.In further extended model,knowledge searching decision and punishment on cheat are introduced.Under certain conditions,excess treatment will be banished. |
…………………………Huang Tao and Yan Tao(125) |
• Economic Development and Relation between the Industry and Agriculture Sectors:The Chinese Planning Economy Revisited in Cliometrics |
Abstrat:There are some mistakes in dealing with the relation between the industry and the agriculture sectors during the period of Chinese planning economy.Chinas heavy-industry development strategy with the support of agriculture is maybe right,the method adopted by the nation is maybe wrong.In the paper,we find that the efficiency in agriculture was low and the industrial elite also didnt get the more benefits from the agriculture sector during the Commune System.Experiential analysis based on the Cliometrics supports the conclusion.If the cooperative economy that existed from 1952 to 1956 were carried out from 1957 to 1978,the gross value of agricultural output would increase 1/3 at least,and the tax of the agriculture sector taking out by the government in order to develop the industry sector would increase 1.8% or 8.0% at least.The lost of social saving in the Commune System is double to the benefits of industry transferring from the agriculture in fact.We also make clear why the household responsibility system leads to the reform in 1978. |
…………………………Sun Shengmin(135) |
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