Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.43 No.10 October, 2008 |
• On the Mechanism of Sustainable Growth:Evidence,Theory and Policy |
Abstrat:Chinas development environment has changed as Chinese economy approaches to the group of middle-income countries.How to achieve the sustainable growth in the new environment is the main theme of our paper.According to Chinas reality,this paper introduces the government support coefficient in the enterprises production function,which can be attained by the maximization of government welfare function.Our analysis shows that when government has enough resources to maintain its spending,the government support coefficient is relatively large and the enterprises investment will be encouraged by low tax,low resource prices,subsidies and etc.While the government income is not large enough to realize the social welfare target,the government coefficient will change and the enterprise can not enjoy the government support and even will be punished by high tax.Therefore,the key for new mechanism of Chinas sustainable growth is to match government spending to its fiscal potential,and encourage enterprises innovation to maintain economic vitality. |
…………………………The Research Group(13) |
• The Binary Transmission Mechanism of Chinas Monetary Policy—A Research on the "Two Intermediaries,Two Targets"Model |
Abstrat:The research,using VAR model and economic and financial data starting from Jan.1998 and expiring by Jun.2006,by econometric methods and theoretical analysis,examines the intermediate target and transmission channel of Chinas monetary policy.The results are as followings:1monetary stock M_2 is a good indicator of Chinas monetary policy,which is far and away the best predictive variable among the five considered;2M_2 is Chinas monetary intermediate target because M_2 reacts systematically to the industrial-added value and CPI and M_2 innovation is made by central bank;3credit volume is a key channel of the monetary transmission mechanism,and almost no money channel.Credit is a de facto intermediate target,which tune macroeconomy and induce the changes of M_2 as well,so there are two intermediate targets-credit and M_2,which are fundamentally the same as the situation before 1998;4the two intermediate targets function in different fields-credit is for real economy and M_2 for financial market,which is a realistic choice and the central bank has successfully coordinated them very well.These conclusions are meaningful for the practices of Chinas monetary policy,which indicate that we should pay more attention to the credit volume and take it as the core variable to tune macroeconomy.Of course this monetary transmission model is only effective temporarily for there are many limitations in it.In the future,it is necessary to adopt interest rate,which is more informative,as the intermediate target,which takes the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate as the preconditions. |
…………………………Sheng Songcheng and Wu Peixin(37) |
• The Role of the Great Creditors:Do the Banks in China Have the Monitoring Effect on the Borrowers |
Abstrat:Bank loans are major financing recourses for the firms in China.However,do the banks as the great creditors monitor the borrows effectively Two bank loan policies are studied in this work,one is the loan interest rate and the other is the loan renewal.We find that a positive pressure transfer effect existing in the relation of the loan interest rates and the performance of the borrowers,that is the better the performance,the lower the interest rate.However,a contrary relation is found between the loan renewals and the performance of the borrowers,that is the worse the performance,the more possibility to have the loan renewals.Our conclusion is that the banks in China do monitor their borrowers as the great creditors which could be observed through the loan interest rates,and the loan renewals only reflect the bank financing effect,not the monitoring effect. |
…………………………Hu Yiming,Thomas W.Lin,Li Siqi and Xie Shilei(52) |
• Research on the Motivation of Insider Trading |
Abstrat:After the reform of the shareholder structure was mainly completed,the Chinese Stock Market will be an entirely circulated capital market.At the same time insider trading may be more rampant than before.Its a great challenge to monitor and control the big shareholders and institution investors insider trading,who can take advantage of information,capital and control right under the entire circulation.Therefore,it is critical for us to study the motivation of insider trading and the corresponding effective indexes.Based on the economics of crime research frame and the theories of behavioral finance,in this paper we firstly construct the structural equation model to study the motivation to insider trading,selecting the corresponding indexes,investigating the relationships among these indexes via questionnaire and other methods,and then finally educe some valuable conclusions.According to the conclusions,we make some important suggestions on how to monitor and control the insider trading under the entire circulation. |
…………………………Li Xindan,Song Surong,Lu Bin and Zha Xiaolei(65) |
• On Income Convergence among China,Hong Kong and Macau |
Abstrat:Hong Kong and Macau were re-united with China in the late 1990s as two special administrative regionsSARs.Due to historical reasons,China lagged far behind Hong Kong and Macau in terms of per capita incomes.However,rapid economic growth in China over the last three decades and the bi-directional inflows of investments and human resources between China and its two SARs must have brought about a significant convergence of the three economies.Chinas economic success have benefited from the integration of its two SARs and the coastal provinces,especially Guangdong in terms of technological spill-over,massive investment and trade.The economic trickledown,direct investment and trade must have been important drivers of economic integration and income convergence.This paper aims to analyze the trend and studies the determinants of income convergence between China and its two SARs.Both parametric and non-parametric techniques are employed to quantify the pace of convergence on per capita incomes in Hong Kong,Macau and the Chinese provinces over a period of more than 40 years.We find no evidence of convergence in the pre-reform period,but strong evidence of both absolute and conditional β-convergence in the post-reform period.Over the reform period,the pace of convergence is less than 1 per cent per annum without controlling for trade and more than 2 per cent conditional on trade. |
…………………………Yao Shujie,Chun Kwok Lei and Feng Genfu(80) |
• Regional Factors and the Optimal Provision of Public Goods |
Abstrat:This Paper analyzes the effects of two kinds of regional factors on the provision of local public goods.One of these regional factors is where a public goods locals in the city.The analysis shows that the social optimal quality of the public goods within the marginal area of the city is lower than that within the city center.Another regional factor is the relative location of one public goods to nearby citizens,which is turned into index marked by citizens travel radius.While increasing the travel radius makes it possible for citizens that are far from the public goods to be able to use the public services,which leads to the rising of the social optimal quality,it also let the one who is further from the public good to be the "median voter".The correlation between public goods optimal quality and the travel radius depends on which of these two effects is more intense.The paper also distinguishes two kinds of public goods as non-substitutive and substitutive goods according to whether they could substitute each other in meeting citizens needs and analyzes the differences between their social optimal quality and quantity,taking into the influences of regional factors. |
…………………………Zhao Nong and Liu Xiaolu(93) |
• Changes in the Spatial Structure of China Manufacturing Industries and Its Influence on Regional Specialization |
Abstrat:Focused on lock-in effect,this paper develops a new measurement of changes in the spatial structure and improves regional conflict index of industrial structure.We examine manufacturing industries in China between 1996 and 2005;the results obtained reveal that agglomeration is a more prominent trend than diffusion,although both of them are founded during this period.Analyses also suggest that diffusion plays a more important role in regional specialization than agglomeration,and that regions whose shares decrease in agglomeration but increase in diffusion face the most severe conflicts in industrial structure. |
…………………………Chen Xiushan and Xu Ying(104) |
• Pension Reform and Household Saving:the Chinese Case |
Abstrat:This paper estimates the effect of public pension reform on the household saving in urban China and explains the rise of Chinese household saving ratio in middle and late 1990es from a new perspective.The 1995—1997 pension reform has caused changes in the pension wealth of the employees in non-public sectors.This exogenous varies of pension wealth are used to identify the effect of pension wealth on household saving ratio.Using data from the urban household income survey of 1995 and 1999,we find that pension wealth has a statistically significant substituting effect on households saving and this effect is-0.3 to-0.4 on average.However,the effect varies across different age groups:in the case when the age of the household head is 35—49,the effect is significant,while in other age groups,the effect is not significant. |
…………………………He Lixin,Feng Jin and Sato Hiroshi(117) |
• The Ratio of Education Investment and Differences in Regional Economic Growth |
Abstrat:Based on Lucas1988,this paper bifurcates educational funding sources into government funding and non-government funding and explores their respective impact on long-term economic growth under equilibrium conditions.The approach to a large extent depicts the importance of non-government educational investment in long-term economic growth under certain conditions.Based upon the theoretical model established,empirical analysis was conducted using panel data in China from the period of 1996 to 2005,which indicates that government and non-government educational investment have short-term effect on human capital accumulation and economic growth in China.Furthermore,in regions where the ratio of non-government educational investment to government educational investment is low,physical capital investment is the main driver for economic growth while an increase in non-government educational investment has a particularly significant impact on human capital accumulation. |
…………………………Yu Lingyun(131) |
• Resolving System Deficiencies in the Financial Guarantee of Rural Compulsory Education—Central Transfer Payment System and the Powers of the Authority Structural Adjustment |
Abstrat:Because of constraints with the existing financial system,the lack of macroeconomic policies guidance,and especially the mismatch between intergovernmental financial authorities,the rural compulsory education investment system that "invested mainly by the local government,county-based and grading burden" is hard to provide a comprehensive,long-term support.In view of the current academic high expectations through innovative and perfect central transfer payment system for rural compulsory education to resolve security issues,this paper presents different views:the role of central transfer payment system was greatly weakened because of its own inherent flaws.This paper attempts to build framework based on analysis of shortcomings of the transfer payment in the financial guarantee of rural compulsory education system,and seek another solution path from intergovernmental expenditure duties and authority allocation of compulsory education in rural areas. |
…………………………Zhang Lihua and Wang Chong(144) |
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