Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.43 No.9 September, 2008 |
• On the Mode of Economic System Reform with Chinese Characteristics(I) |
Abstrat:This paper summarizes from 9 aspects the mode of economic system reform with Chinese characteristics.Firstly,in respect of the theoretical guidance of reform,China attaches importance to the leading role of theoretical innovation.Secondly,in respect of the attributes of reform,China combines the "second revolution" with self-perfection of socialist system.Thirdly,in respect of the orientation of reform,China sets the goal of establishing socialist market economy.Fourthly,in respect of the way to reform,China pushes forward the reform in a gradual and steady way.Fifthly,in respect of the relationship between reform and development,China looks upon development as the aim of reform.Sixthly,in respect of the relationship between reform and stabilization,China turns to stabilization as the guarantee of reform.Seventhly,in respect of the relationship between reform and opening-up,China stresses the mutual promotion between marketization and internationalization.Eighthly,in respect of the coordination between economic reform and other reforms,China carries forward all-around reforms.Ninthly and lastly,in respect of the driving force of reform,China joins the forces of the grassroots and the leadership.The paper will be published in two parts. |
…………………………The Research Group of CASS(4) |
• Two Papers for the Centennial of the Birth of Professor Luo Gengmo |
Abstrat:In this paper,econometric analysis is applied to test the relationship between local government size,openness,and external risk using the 28 provinces data in China during the period from 1978 to 2006.We find significant evidence in the country with more open economy,the external risk has caused the larger local government size,and that both social welfare and social insurance expenditures are positively correlated with the level of a provinces openness.In order to alleviate external risk,government expenditures are used to provide social insurance and social welfare. |
…………………………Zhang Zhuoyuan, Han Meng and Huang Da(16) |
• Proposed Strategies to Cope with the Global Food-Energy Crisis |
Abstrat:Based on the statistics from the sample survey data in China referring the year 2006 and 2007,it is found out,that the increases in the food and energy prices are lower than that in the international market,however the price hike has already exerted a shock on the livelihood of the low income groups.The urban sample households of the low income group substituted the high value food with the low value.All of the rural sample households reduced their total consumption expenditure in real terms;the Engels coefficient enlarged while the proportion of cloth and energy spending declined.Farmers households shifted to more imbalanced diet and the nutrition status of the poor apparently deteriorated.It is then necessary for the whole society to take actions.The emergency-responding measures that the government should implement,is to stop subsidize the biofuel producers with foodstuff as input while provide the poor food aid.The mid-term strategies should be anti-monopoly,improving market environment for right competition,and eliminating distortion of food and energy prices.Furthermore,a mid-and long-term socioeconomic policy reform must be undertaken to adjust the social structure,correct mechanism of factor price formation,and transform the economic growth pattern. |
…………………………Zhu Ling(22) |
• Banking Structure and Economic Growth:Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data |
Abstrat:Using panel data for 28 Chinese provinces during 1985—2002,this paper assesses the effect of banking structure on economic growth.Banking structure is defined as the relative importance of banks of different size in the banking sector.The market share of small banking institutions is taken as a proxy to measure the banking structure.To deal with the potential endogeneity problem,we construct an instrumental variable for banking structure with the information on the commercialization reform of state-owned banks initiated in 1994.The estimation results from a two-way fixed effect model show that increases in the market share of small banking institutions enhance economic growth in contemporary China. |
…………………………Lin Yifu and Sun Xifang(31) |
• The Effectiveness of Chinas Monetary Policy:Analyzing from the Viewpoint of Time Inconsistency |
Abstrat:Based on the modification of model of time inconsistency,this paper analyzes the effectiveness of Chinas monetary policy.The study shows that the effectiveness of Chinas monetary policy is positively associated with its credibility.Thereafter,implementing monetary policy with regularity,high transparency and strong inertia will play an important role in the improvement of the effectiveness of monetary policy. |
…………………………Tan Xudong(46) |
• Chinas Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy:A Monetary Model Based on Empirical Analysis |
Abstrat:Based on a monetary model this study derives a measure of Renminbi foreign exchange market pressureEMP,and investigates the interactions between EMP,central bank domestic credit,Chinas relative economic growth rate against US,and domestic interest rate.Also this paper explores the impacts of US monetary base and interest rate on Chinas EMP.Monthly data for the period 1994-01 to 2008-01 and a VAR methodology are used.We found some evidence of a negative relationship between Renminbi appreciation pressure and central bank domestic credit,as well as positive relationships between Renminbi appreciation pressure and economic growth,domestic interest rate respectively.Also there is some evidence that EMP affects domestic credit negatively,while no significant impacts on Chinas interest rate. |
…………………………Bu Yongxiang(58) |
• Exchange Rates and Stock Prices Interactions in China:An Empirical Studies after 2005 Exchange Rate Reform |
Abstrat:The paper analyzes the relationships between the change of the exchange rate and the fluctuation of the stock market after Chinese exchange rates reform which happened in 2005.The research is important for us to deeply understand the linkages and mechanisms between Chinese foreign exchange market and stock market.The paper finds that the exchange rate is highly related with the stock market,and long term co-integration existed.It shows,from the long term,the relationship between the two variables can mainly be explained by flow-oriented models;Shanghai A share index is influenced by the exchange rate in the long run.On the contrary,from the short term,the relationships between the two variables are mainly explained by stock-oriented models.The relationships between the two variables are robust after controlling for other important variables and testing using rolling windows techniques.The paper further analyses the possible influence of sector indexes to exchange rates and finds that finance index,real estate index,civil aviation index,petroleum index,iron and steel index have cointegration relationships with exchange rates.Finally,some advices and policy suggestions are put forward. |
…………………………Zhang Bing,Feng Sixian,Li Xindan and Wang Huijian(70) |
• Noise Trading and Market Quality in Chinese Stock Markets |
Abstrat:Whether and to what extent noise trading and market quality affect each other has been an active research topic in finance during the past several decades.For the first time,this paper provides time-series estimates of noise trading in the emerging Chinese stock markets by regressing high-frequency returns of 32 Shanghai 50 index companies on a control sample composed of industry,size,leverage and book-to-market matched firms.The paper finds that private information is persistent and highly correlated;noise trading enhances stock-market turnover,but increases trade execution costs and price volatility at the same time;noise trading and information asymmetry are not correlated,although information asymmetry can increase trade execution costs substantially;noise trading reduces realized spread,and as a result,market is not price efficient.Based on the aforementioned empirical findings,the paper proposes that to enhance market quality,Chinese government must deepen market microstructure reform,promote value investment strategies,improve information disclosure practices and strengthen trade monitoring. |
…………………………Su Dongwei(82) |
• An Economic Interpretation of the Strategy of "Two Situations" |
Abstrat:In the eighties of twentieth century,Deng Xiaoping brought forward the strategy of "Two Situations" which directed the policy arrangement of Chinas regional development.This paper sets up a game model included central government,local government and multinational,and tries to explain the rationality of the strategy.The model suggests that under the condition of local governments competition for economic growth,the central government should choose the location where FDI brings more externality as preferential regions in order to maximize the national welfare,and the preferential power must exceed the degree at which the preferential local government can win the FDI without any subsidy to the multinational.Compare to the development strategy of "Easter Region Preference",the central government needs to give more support to "Western Region Development","Northeast Region Revitalization" and "Middle Region Rising". |
…………………………Cai Guowei and Shu Yuan(106) |
• Endogenous Inefficient Institutions |
Abstrat:Following Acemoglu2006,we construct a simple model to investigate how the elites preference for high intermediate good price translates into inefficient economic institutions and political institutions.Price manipulation mechanism implies that the elite prefer to high profits through monopoly pricing.An increase in tax rate declines the demand for intermediate good from the middle class,hence reducing monopoly profits,hence the price manipulation motive always decreases taxes to below the pure revenue-maximizing level,which is opposite to the case in Acemoglu2006. |
…………………………Pan Shiyuan(106) |
• The Effects of External Risk on Local Government Size of China:Theory and Evidence |
Abstrat:In this paper,econometric analysis is applied to test the relationship between local government size,openness,and external risk using the 28 provinces data in China during the period from 1978 to 2006.We find significant evidence in the country with more open economy,the external risk has caused the larger local government size,and that both social welfare and social insurance expenditures are positively correlated with the level of a provinces openness.In order to alleviate external risk,government expenditures are used to provide social insurance and social welfare. |
…………………………Yang Canming and Sun Qunli(115) |
• The Role of Firm Effects in the Gender Earnings Gap:Evidence From China |
Abstrat:This paper analyzes the gender wage gap in the post-reform Chinese industry using a unique employer-employee matched dataset.The analysis shows that the sex-related wage premiums at the firm level account for almost all the portion of the gender wage gap that is not explained by observed personal characteristics.It is found that firms which have a larger pay gap between men and women are more likely to operate in the market with fierce competition,subject to a hard budget constraint,adopt piece rates,and have a lower degree of employees influence and a higher degree of internal wage dispersion. |
…………………………Li Liying and Dong Xiaoyuan(122) |
• Non-farm Work,Maternal Care and Child Health:Evidence from Rural China |
Abstrat:Chinas rural economy has undergone dramatic structural changes since the country embarked on the path of market reforms in the late 1970s.These changes have altered patterns of womens labor force participation,with consequences for childrens welfare.In this paper we examine the effects of maternal labor supply on childrens health in rural China.With data from the China Economic,Population,Nutrition,and Health SurveyCHNS,We find that that an increase of a mothers working hours reduces her time available for children and consequently has a negative effect on child health,while the additional income it generated contributes to improving childs nutritional status.With the labor hour effect outweighing the income effect;maternal work overall shows a small negative effect on child health,and the effect is more pronounced for non-farm work than farm activities.These results suggest that economic structural changes have intensified the conflict of womens dual roles as income earners and as caregivers. |
…………………………Liu Jing(136) |
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