Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.43 No.8 August, 2008 |
• The Evolution of Chinas Financial Assets Structure:1991-2007 |
Abstrat:In 1996,the first author of this essay manifested that financial assets structure of China which was then dominated by indirect financing had led to many problems in the economy.After more than ten years of financial reform,has the financial assets structure been improved Can the existing financial assets structure accommodate the development of Chinese economy This paper tries to answer above questions by reanalyzing the current financial structure in China.It is found that the financial asset structure of China has experienced obvious improvement.Meanwhile,the new structure has brought some new problems which ought to be resolved by further improvement of monetary market and capital market.In the coming ten years,the optimal path for the development of Chinas financial market is through two-way opening. |
…………………………Yi Gang and Song Wang (4) |
• Determinants of Factor Shares in Chinas Industrial Sector |
Abstrat:We setup a monopolistic competition model with CES production function to explain how factor shares are determined by monopoly power, capital-output ratio, capital-augmenting technical progress, elasticity of substitution, and ownership. Our regression analyses with industrial survey data show that monopoly power and ownership restructure significantly influence factor shares in the industrial sector, while capital-augmenting technical progress and capital-output ratio do not show significant influence. A by-product of this research is that we find adequate reason to argue that the elasticity of substitution for the industrial sector is unitary, and therefore the relative price of labor and capital does not significantly affect factor shares. |
…………………………Bai Chongen,Qian Zhenjie and Wu Kangping(16) |
• Limited Catch-up and Economic Growth |
Abstrat:This paper investigates the relationship between countries trade patterns and their economic performances. We propose the concept of limited catch-up and construct the limited catch-up index LCI for 112 countries/regions in the period of 1965—2005. The successful stories of South Korea and Chinese Taiwan and comparison of China, India and Argentina show the advantages of limited catch-up. Econometric analysis shows that limited catch-up contributes significantly to better economic growth, and its short-term effect is larger than its long-term effect. |
…………………………Yang Rudai and Yao Yang(29) |
• Study on the Effectiveness of Government Regulation of Chinas Grain Market:A Case Study of Theat |
Abstrat:To evaluate how effective Chinese government regulation is on the domestic grain market under world economic integration,we conducted a series of tests.There included unity root test,VAR,GARCH model,variance decomposition,co-integration test,together with volatility analysis to test daily data of the domestic and foreign wheat market from January 2001 to September 2007 and test monthly data of spot and futures of domestic and foreign wheat from June 1993 to March 2007.The results reveal some interesting features unique to Chinas wheat market.In particular,This paper provides substantiates that the absence of long-term equilibrium between domestic and foreign market can be maintained is the premise for using effective government regulation.Therefore,a standard is necessary for judging the necessity of regulation so as to avoid the negative effects and harm caused by inadvertent government regulation. |
…………………………Yang Ju,Wang Xinkui and Geng Hongzhou(42) |
• Indigenous R&D,Technology Imports and Productivity:Evidence from Industries across Regions of China |
Abstrat:The paper is dedicated to probing into the effects of indigenous R&D,foreign and domestic technology imports on industrial productivity across regions of China by using the province-level panel data from 1996 to 2003.Based on the expanded production function and calculating the stocks of R&D and technology imports,the paper finds that indigenous R&D and foreign technology import have significantly positive effects on productivity and domestic technology import have no significant effects on it by using fixed effects and first difference models.The paper also finds that the lower absorptive capacity of indigenous R&D cumbers the productivity growth.The relationships among R&D,foreign technology import and productivity also take on different patterns in different regions:R&D has significantly positive effects on productivity only in central and east regions,while foreign technology import has significantly positive effects on productivity only in west regions.Different technical development and innovation capacity in different regions may be the main reasons of the phenomena. |
…………………………Wu Yanbing (51) |
• What Determines the Net Interest Margins of Chinese Commercial Banks |
Abstrat:This paper conducts an empirical study on the determinants of Chinese commercial banks net interest margins with the panel data during the period of 1996—2003,applying the extension of Ho and Saunders1981model,which originally identifies the fundamental elements affecting net interest margins.We introduce average operating costs,asset scale,and other factors induced by market imperfection into the fixed effects model.The results discover that the determinants of net interest margin include market competition structure,average operating costs,degree of risk aversion,transaction size,implicit interest payments,opportunity cost of reserve,management efficiency,and asset scale.The empirical results are valuable to both the commercial banks management for their enhancing profitability and the government regulators for their making policy to improve social welfare.Finally,some policy implications are proposed based on the empirical results. |
…………………………Zhou Kaiguo,Li Tao and He Xingqiang(65) |
• Split-Share Structure Reform and Interests of Private Ultimate Controllers—Evidences from Chinas Public-Trade Firms |
Abstrat:The worst weakness resulting from split-share structure in China is the inconsistency between controllers private benefits and firms value,which induces serious agent-costs.The split-share structure reform that has been implemented from April 2005 removes market fraction and helps to eliminate the confliction from the view of theory.This paper constructs a "difference in difference" model by adopting the Chinas public trade firms ultimately controlled by families and the analysis framework of pyramidal ownership.The empirical results indicate the split-share reform indeed improves public-trade firms governance and help to remove the confliction between the ultimate controllers benefits and firms valuation,regarding to those firms ultimate controlled by families. |
…………………………Liao Li and Zhang Xueyong(77) |
• An Empirical Study of the Relation between Economic Growth,Economic Policies and Firm Performance |
Abstrat:Based on Chinese listed companies sample over the period from 1995 to 2004,we examine the relation between economic growth,economic policies and firm-level accounting performance and stock return.By constructing IS-LM model,we estimate the fiscal policy multipliergovernment expenditure multiplier,transfer payment multiplier,tax multiplierand monetary policy multiplier so as to appropriately measure the effects of fiscal and monetary policies.On the basis of the changes in fiscal and monetary policies,we investigate the influence of the economic growth,economic policies on the accounting performance and stock return,and find that there is a significant link between economic policies and firm performance,although there is some variations among different economic policies.In addition,after controlling the influences of the economic policies on firm performance,we observe that the macro economic growth doesnt deviate from the micro firm performance,this finding is not consistent with some prior researches,but it is consistent with classical economic theory. |
…………………………Jin Qing lu,Li Ronglin and Wan Hualin(90) |
• Is Chinese Inflation Pushed By Wages:An Empirical Research Based on Excess Wage |
Abstrat:Different opinions about the originations of the inflations began from the year of 2007 indicate different policies against further inflation.VAR research based on the import price,money supply,excess wage and inflation finds no solid evidences for the school of cost-push inflation.Further evidences from sector data also confirm the basic conclusions of the VAR research.There is no "wage-inflation" vicious circle in China yet.Money supply instead of excess wage made the most contribution for current inflation. |
…………………………Fan Zhiyong(102) |
• Floating Standard Exchange,Dual Exchange Rates and Chinas Economy:1870-1900 |
Abstrat:Chinas monetary system evolved from bimetallism of silver and copper to silver standard,then to paper money standard since Ching Dynasty,which is obviously different with the evolution of monetary system in western countries,where monetary system evolved from bimetallism of gold and silver to gold standard,then to paper money standard.1870s later,most western countries gave up bimetallism of gold and sliver one after another,and adopted gold standard,which resulted in the regime of dual exchange rates in China,namely,exchange rate of silver to gold in foreign trade and exchange rate of silver to copper in domestic trade.Dual exchange rates brought the phenomenon of trade deficit in company with depreciation,which is not accordance with economic theory.It also brought disadvantages to our country through enhancing the burden of foreign loans and reparations and impoverished grass roots people.Based on Zheng Youkuis research,also under the background of new development in monetary theory and historical data,we analyze the effects of regime of dual exchange rates on Chinas economy between 1870 and 1900.Finally,this article makes clear the inherent defects of bimetallism in China by comparing it with bimetallism in western countries. |
…………………………Guan Hanhui(113) |
• A New Decomposition of Gini-Coefficient by Population Subgroups |
Abstrat:This paper demonstrates a new decomposition of the Gini-coefficient under multi-subgroups.The main contents are as follows.First,the fundamental reasons of imperfections on present decomposition methods are analyzed.Second,a new decomposition of Gini-coefficient under multi-subgroup without overlap term is proposed.Third,the reliable theoretical basis and the clear economic significance of the between-group inequality index are proposed and proved.Lastly,the meaning of welfare economics behind the decomposition and the between-group inequality index are explored. |
…………………………Cheng Yonghong(124) |
• The Specification of Population Regression Models in Economnetric Application Studies |
Abstrat:Taking the target of econometric population models specification as the starting point,the paper analyses and evaluates the study target guidance,the economics theory guidance and the data guidance of the population models specification,and advances some important criterions about the population models specification.For example,the population model must be sole,general and realistic,and must pass the statistical testing by the data.Finally,the paper raises a new theory,i.e.the population models specification must be directed by the dynamic relationship in economy system. |
…………………………Li Zinai(136) |
• From EX ante Inefficiency to Ex post Inefficiency:Comparing Several Classical Types of Models of Incomplete Contract Theory |
Abstrat:We classify the incomplete contract theory first to 4 types in terms of the ex ante and ex post contractibility and the ex ante and ex post inefficiency:ex ante inefficiency model with ex ante non-contractible but ex post contractible actions,ex ante and ex post inefficiency model with ex ante and ex post non-contractible actions,ex ante and ex post inefficiency model with partial-contractible actions,ex ante and ex post inefficiency model with ex post unverifiable payoffs.We analyze the difference and similarity of these models and compare what phenomena these models explain.The GHM model has been criticized for its assumptions,especially for the assumption of ex post contractibility.To analyze the topics of authority,delegation and hierarchy,we must depart from a world in which Coasian renegotiation always leads to ex post efficiency,and focus on the much more complex ex post inefficiency. |
…………………………Jiang Shicheng and Fei Fangyu(145) |
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