Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.41 No.8 August, 2006 |
• An Empirical Study on the Effects of Ownership Reform in china |
Abstrat:Using a comprehensive panel data set of Chinas state-owned enterprises, we investigate the impacts of ownership reform and different extent of non-state ownership on social welfare and firm performance. We also consider the sources of the gain in firm performance and the long-run impacts of ownership reform. It is found that ownership reform improves firm performance mainly through reducing managerial expenses, and the social costs of ownership reform are limited compared to international experiences. |
…………………………Bai Chongen,Lu Jiangyong and Tao Zhigang(4) |
• A Theoretical and Empirical Study on What Affect Consideration Ratio For Split Share Structure Reform Of Listed Companies in China |
Abstrat:Whether the split share structure reform of listed companies can succeed is very important for future development of security market in China. This paper develops theoretical hypotheses based on financial literature and Chinas reality to test what affect consideration ratio between non-tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders by sample 330 listed companies, which have conducted the reform. These results suggest that the game mechanism adopted in the reform generally could ensure the rationality of reform projects and protect both shareholders, but the institutional investors have not put up their bargaining ability in the reform. |
…………………………Wu Chaopeng,Zheng Fangbiao,Lin Zhouyong,Li Wenqiang and Wu Shinong(14) |
• The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and The Flourishing of Central Bank Transparency |
Abstrat:This paper explores the effect of central bank transparency on the effectiveness of monetary policy, and shows that one key factor behind the move to increase transparency on the part of central banks is the relationship between transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy. According to the theory of “time inconsistency", transparency in monetary policy has nothing to do with the effectiveness of monetary policy because public has perfect knowledge about economy. But when the private sector faces uncertainty about the economy, the central bank transparency plays a crucial role in stabilizing and guiding the agents learning process and expectations, and then improves the effectiveness of monetary policy greatly. |
…………………………Xu Yaping(24) |
• Nonlinear Transition between Inflation Expansion and Deflation in China |
Abstrat:This paper applies the ESTAR model to conduct an empirical study for Chinese inflation. The results show that there is nonlinear exponential transition between the inflation and deflation, and the transition location takes place in lagged two periods and adjustment speed is quick and significant; furthermore the middle value of the inflation and deflation is 3.3%. Based on above results and Chinese background, this paper also describes dynamic cyclical behavior of the inflation. The conclusions imply that the macroeconomic policies of China are generally efficient. |
…………………………Wang Shaoping and Peng Fangping(35) |
• Social Interaction and Investment Choice |
Abstrat:Does social interaction affect individual investment choice If so, what are the mechanisms Based on a individual investor survey in 12 cities in China in 2005, we find that overall social interaction promotes individual investors participation in saving, foreign exchange, stock, bond, futures, mutual fund, lending, business, insurance, collection, real estate, wealth-managing product, and lottery, behind which is the social norm mechanism of social interaction. By investing in the same project as those currently chosen by most of his peer group members, an individual follows the social norm held by his peer members. Moreover, communication and social learning mechanisms of endogenous social interaction increase individual investors current and future expected investment in insurance and bond respectively, while contextual social interaction reduces his future expected investment in stock. Our research provides a new policy angle of social interaction for Chinas economic reform and development. Improving social interaction, matching policies with social norms in the short term, and cultivating suitable social norms in the long term should be all taken into consideration by the government. |
…………………………Li Tao(45) |
• Psychological Experimental Study on Hot-hand Effect and Gamblers Fallacy |
Abstrat:With psychological experiments, we found that whenever stock price goes up or goes down continuously, gamblers fallacy will dominate hot-hand effect in investors information process to serial changing stock price. When stock price goes up continuously, the longer the price up, the larger is the probability that investor think the price will drop down in next period, and the tendency to sell it gets more evident. On the other hand, when stock price drops down continuously, the longer the price down, the larger is the probability that investor think the price will go up in next period, and the tendency to buy it became larger. These results suggest that at least psychological factor exists in the individual investor that hope the market will reverse to bullish in todays bearish Chinese stock market. Disposition effect is also found in the experiments, which is more evident in female investor than in male investor and more evident in the investor with low level investment knowledge and less experience than those with higher level. Experiments also indicate that Chinese investors like short-term investing which is much shorter than one year. |
…………………………Lin Shu,Yu Qiao,Tang Zhenyu and Zhou Jian(58) |
• Analyzing the Foreign Trade Structure Based on Technologies of Trade Goods |
Abstrat:International trade theory found that technology played important parts in determining foreign trade structure.The difficulty is,however,how to identify the differences between technologies of traded goods,how to map the technological distribution of traded goods and how to analyze trade patterns based on differences of technological advances among trading partner countries.This paper attempts to provide a method of analyzing trade structure based on technological distribution of traded goods that is built on the Principle of Revealed Value-added by Technology.Based on this method,we try to establish Competitiveness-Complementarities Index for trade,the Competitive Stress Index,the Curve of Technology and the classification for high-tech and low-tech traded goods.In addition,this paper analyzes the Chinas trade structure in the context of moving to regional free trade agreementFTA. |
…………………………Fan Gang,Chi Hung Kwan and Yao Zhizhong(70) |
• Research on the Economic Environment and Policies of China in Attracting International Outsourcing |
Abstrat:The total international outsourcing volume in China is first estimated. Then the influential factors of international outsourcing are identified with their degrees of contribution calculated through multiple regressions. Based on the identified major influential factors, an outsourcing attracting environment evaluation framework is established which is used to quantitatively analyze the economic environment of China. Further investigation of the trends and rankings indicates the development trends of transnational corporations outsourcing practice in nine provinces or cities of the three economic regions in China. Research results and suggestions can be used as references for appropriate government departments in making corresponding decisions. |
…………………………Wang Aihu and Zhong Yuchen(81) |
• Estimating and Decomposing the Contribution of Technical Change in China |
Abstrat:After analyzing the disadvantage of Solows Residual Method,this paper constructs a new model to estimate and decompose the contribution of technical change in China on the basis of the new growth theories.In order to estimate the contribution of technical change more precisely,this paper integrates three new factors into the new model,including industries structure,captital aggregating,and human capital.With this new model,this paper analyses the technical change in China from 1987 to 2003,and finds that the contribution of technical change in China is growing steadily. |
…………………………Xu Ying,Chen Xiushan and Liu Fengliang(93) |
• New Explanations and Test to Sens Entitlements:Evidence from China |
Abstrat:This paper on Sens food entitlement theory and the traditional theory to explain famine with food supply declined Food Availability Decline-FAD positioning that both are the real cause of famine,but FAD could not explain the distribution of famine.On the base of urban bias by Lin Yifu and Yangtao2000,the paper indicates that the real causes of famine distribution are the food deficit areas,and the distribution has class nature. The priorities of their entitlements to food is subjected to the direct impact of famine. |
…………………………Fan Ziying and Meng Lingjie(104) |
• Creative Destruction and Oscillating Enlarge of Income Inequality |
Abstrat:Joseph Schumpters Innovation and Creative Destruction are used to explain dynamic feature of income inequality enlarge in oscillation. Income inequality will be larger during economic growth through creative destruction. The higher the degree of creative destruction, the faster the economic growth and the larger of income inequality would be. This paper analyzes the social foundations of this process, and believes that the social ladder and specification will enlarge during growth. In methodologies, the physical model describes enlarging process, and the limits of the tools based on steady-state are discovered. It shows that the process is in oscillation, not solely increasing. This feature is determined by the interactions among individuals and dynamic competition of technical innovations——Creative Destruction. The empirical evidence based on US family wages proves that the income inequality will enlarge in oscillation during the dynamic process. |
…………………………Zhong Chunping and Xu Changsheng(114) |
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