Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.40 No.6 June, 2005 |
• Empirical Analysis on the Inequality and the Reason of China ResidentsProperty Distribution |
Abstrat:Based on 1995 and 2002 income distribution dataset implemented by the institute of economics, CASS.The inequality of China residents property distribution is described in the paper along with empirical analysis.The main finding of the paper is that,the inequality of residents property distribution was rapidly and obviously enlarged during this period,this process can be explained mainly by the gap between rural and urban area.By decomposition analysis,we found that the privatization of urban public owned house reduced the inequality of urban residents property distribution, while it enlarged the gap between urban and rural area and China as a whole as well; by the decreasing of land revenue, the relative share of land value in rural residents property declined,also weakening its original function on reducing nationwide property differences.Besides, we also concludes that,the concentration of residents financial assets will enhanced the inequality of nationwide property distribution in the future. |
…………………………Li Shi,Wei Zhong and Ding Sai(4) |
• On the Wage Determination System in State Owned-,Collective Owned-,and Private Sectors 1989-1997 |
Abstrat:We evaluate labor market reform by estimating the role of human capital in wage determination. Using data from CHNS, the estimated roles of education in wage determination of State Owned-, Collective Owned-and private sectors are different. The return to education increased, and become significant in private sectors from 1989 to 1997, while those of public sectors show no such trend. This suggests that the labor market is segmented and private sector is more efficient in terms of wage determination. I correct self-selection error using switching model, but the main results remain unchanged. |
…………………………Xing Chunbing(16) |
• A Study on Business Cycle and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in China:An Empirical Study on a RBC Model with Three Sections |
Abstrat:In this paper, we use dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method to set up a RBC model with government, make corresponding empirical applications and analyze the effects of the fiscal policy. It finds that shocks to technology and government spending can explain about 70% of the variance of Chinas cyclical fluctuations in this model. The fluctuations result from the impact of technology, supply and demand. Otherwise, it shows that government spending crowds out some of private consumption after reform. Consequently, while the government has implemented expansionary fiscal policy since reform especially after 1997, its effect is not obvious. |
…………………………Huang Zelin(27) |
• Fiscal Decentralization,Transform Coefficient and Economic Growth |
Abstrat:Under the classical growth model and endogenous growth model,most of the past literatures pay attention to the analysis how scale factor and supply factor determine economic growth. But in fact,structure factor,demand factor and regulation factor are the major factors which determine economic growth step by step. For this reason,the paper constructs a model which includes scale factor and structure factor,entity economy and finance economy,market factor and regulation factor by introducing transform Coefficient. By model simulation we can get the result: Transform Coefficient of economy system have the dominant effects on the speed of economic growth. We also can get that the entrepreneur are the strong power of pushing the economic growth. And by mathematic simulation we forecast this years growth speed can still get to 9.2% under the affects of SARS and government regulation. |
…………………………Yun He and Shu Yuan(40) |
• Estimating Total Factor Productivety in China:1979-2004 |
Abstrat:After comparing four methods of estimating total factor productivity,This paper estimates total factor productivity growth rate and analyses total factor productivity growth and sources of economic growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China. The main conclusions are as follows: 1 total factor productivity growth rate presented fluctuant character and fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1993,but declined steadily after 1993 and presented some appearances of turnover in 2000. 2 Total factor productivity growth rate and its contribution of economic growth was lower which suggested that economic growth was input-driven growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China.3The reason why total factor productivity growth rate was lower lied on lower technological progress rate,technical inefficiency and unreasonable resource allocation. |
…………………………Guo Qingwang and Jia Junxue(51) |
• The Impact of Interest Rate and Inflation Expection on the Price Fluctuation of Bulking Trading Merchandise |
Abstrat:Positive research finds the close relation between the price of storable merchandise and money supply. This paper builds a rational expectation dynamic model to explain the mechanism through which inflation expectation and interest rate change the demand for inventory investment and drive the Bulk-trading merchandise price to fluctuate much more dramatically than inflation. Further more the model is supported by the data of Chinese foodstuff price. |
…………………………Li Jinghui and Fan Zhiyong(61) |
• Market Openness and Economic Fluctuation:The Case of East Asia and China |
Abstrat:The purpose of this paper is to present an appropriate econometric methodology to examine the impacts of foreign shocks on domestic output, money, credit and their fluctuations by comparing the ex-ante East Asia Crisis cases in the three Asian emerging markets of Korea, Indonesia and Thailand, and the ex-post case in transitional economy of China under the process of external liberalization. According to the EGARCH-VAR empirical model dealing with asymmetric time-varying volatility, this paper comes to the following three main conclusions: First, the East Asian governments have interfered in their foreign exchange markets actively, whereas the monetary policies in these countries have shown less effective. Second, except for the peak period of international capital movements, the economic fluctuations in all sample countries are not caused directly by the impacts of foreign shocks, but mostly by domestic economic uncertain factors under open economies. Third, domestic economic fluctuations have been found largely depending on the actual situations in exchange rate regime, the openness of financial markets and the development in capital markets in these countries. |
…………………………Sun Lijian and Sun Lixing(69) |
• Trade Statistical Discrepancies and U.S.-China Trade Balance Issues |
Abstrat:The paper shows that 1 it is natural that the differences of Sino-U.S.import and export price-recording methods and transit lag lead to the discrepancies of bilateral trade data; and 2 referring to the new estimates excluding re-export margins,the underestimate of official U.S.exports to China is over 24 percent on average year,and the overstimate of imports from China being over 35 percent, while the underestimate of official Chinese exports to the U.S.is above 20 percent annually,and imports from the U.S.unchanging relatively during 1995—2003; and 3 considering service trade, the estimate of U.S.-China trade deficit is rather close to the new estimate of Sino-U.S. trade surplus excluding re-export margins.The above results are confirmed by IMF data; and 4 the increase of FDI in China brings about the increase of Chinese exports and trade surplus with the U.S..The result proves that U.S.-China trade balance issues are really beyond Sino-U.S.trade,and have become the issues of trade deficit shifts from FDI in China. |
…………………………Shen Guobing(82) |
• The Gaizhi Models and Gaizhi Performance in Chinese Transition:An Empirical Studies on the Firm Survey Data |
Abstrat:Based on the survey data of later half period of 1990s,this paper studies the impact of privatization on firm performance. We find that privatized firms have higher efficiency than those of public firms. Difference types of privatization and their resulting ownership structures influence firm performance most. Specifically, privatization to insider managers is the most efficient, while privatized to insider workers is the least. We further discuss why block holder is the most suitable governance structure given Chinas current institutional environment. Although we do not discuss the distributive effect of privatization to insider managers, we hold that in current China the government should price the assets more honestly and tax those rich for distributive purposes instead of distributing shares evenly to insider workers. |
…………………………Lu Ting and Liu Xiaoxuan(94) |
• The Empirical Analysis on the Cost Efficiencies of Chinese Commercial Banks |
Abstrat:This paper uses Stochastic Frontier Approach in the framework of a translog cost function with an index system of inputs and outputs. In the paper we estimate the cost efficiencies of 14 Chinese commercial banks from 1998 to 2003 and arrange them in their cost efficiencies with real loan production in 2003. There are four characteristics and contributions in this paper. The first one is that we research the cost efficiencies of Chinese commercial banks with stochastic frontier approach and translog cost function in China. The second one is that we set up a index system composed of loan, securities and invests and non-interest incomes that can consider the characteristic of productions and incomes and provide a new point of view for estimating the cost efficiency. The third one is we construct improved samples with real loans which dont have non-performing loans and solve the problem in samples and testified the bad influence of loans quality to cost efficiency and improve the veracity of banks cost efficiencies estimating instead of appeared finance data. The fourth one is that we change the sample data of state commercial banks and the bank of communications in fixed scales that can solve the distortion of cost efficiency estimation brought by big disperse degree of banks cost data. |
…………………………Chi Guotai,Sun Xiufeng and Lu Dan(104) |
• Investor Protection and Corporation Cost of Equity |
Abstrat:This paper aims to examine the corporate cost of capital in various stages of investor protection in China by a sample of equity issues during the period of 1993—2001. The results of empirical investigation shows that corporate cost of equity exhibit a tendency of deceasing as the investor protection getting tighter. And there is a significant negative correlation between the investor protection and corporate cost of equity. |
…………………………Shen Yifeng,Xiao Min and Huang Juanjuan(115) |
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