Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.40 No.5 May, 2005 |
• RMB Exchange Rate:Appreciation and Cost-Benefit Analysis |
Abstrat:Having reviewed the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate since Chinas economic refo rmation, this paper discusses the short run and long run pressure on RMB exchang e rate appreciation, the former accounted for by the economic disequilibrium in domestic and international and the lasting double favorable balance and the latt er by productivity improvement and economic competitiveness increasing. The auth or argues that macroeconomic disequilibrium is exhibited by bilateral circulation and dependence of real and monetary economy. Then the paper measures FDI functio n, imports & exports function and the elasticity of exchange rate, estimates the cost of appreciation on variable range, which includes scalar of FDI, decrease of export and decrease of GDP & employment. The paper finds that the effect of a ppreciation drop half in three quarter and nearly disappear in seven quarter. Ac cordingly, policy advice is put forward with regarding to the space of appreciat ion and operate manner. |
…………………………Zhang Shuguang(17) |
• The Influence of Fluctuation of Real RMB Exchange Rate to Chinese Import and Export:1994-2003 |
Abstrat:Marshall-Lerner condition is one of important foundations of macroecon omic policies. Now, RMB is facing pressure of appreciation. At this time, its i nstructional to reexamine ML condition for central banks constituting exchange rate policy. This paper is an empirical examination of long run relationship bet ween Chinese international trade flow and real weighted effective RMB exchange r ate to main currencies of the world from 1994 to 2003. The empirical result is t hat real RMB exchange rate remarkably influenced Chinese import and export,ML c ondition held and there is J curve effect in China. |
…………………………Lu Xiangqian and Dai Guoqiang(31) |
• Government Control,Institutional Environment and Firm Value |
Abstrat:This paper, using the data on ul timate shareholders disclosed by the listed firms in 2001 to 2003, and the data on regional institutional environment of China worked out by Fan and Wang 2003 , investigates the relationship among government control, institutional environm ent and firm value. We find that, government control especially county level gov ernment control and city level government control has negative influence on firm value, but the improvement of institutional environment can mitigate this negat ive influence. |
…………………………Xia Lijun and Fang Yiqiang(40) |
• Market Development,Government Influence and Corporate Debt Maturity Structure |
Abstrat:On the basis of listed companys empirical data, this paper investigat es the effects of regional market development on corporate debt maturity of this region We find that market development degree is highly correlated with corpora te debt maturity structure, the more degree of market development, the company w ithout the relation of government cannot get the loans from the bank and the low er of corporate long-term loans proportion. Our conclusion indicates that law p rotection about creditor is very important during development of market in our c ountry, otherwise this will cause higher transaction cost and worse social capit al allocation. |
…………………………Sun Zheng,Liu Fengwei and Li Zengquan(52) |
• Financing Cost,Rent Seeking and Capital Allocation inside Firms |
Abstrat:The paper develops a two-tiered principal-agency model where the imp erfection of external capital market can influence the rent-seeking activities of division managers. This factor turns out to be the key to understanding the dist ortion of capital allocation inside firms. Moreover, we emphasize interaction b etween internal capital markets and external capital markets. In our model, when the financing cost in external capital market is low enough, the CEOs will have strong incentive to expand the scale of external financing. The distortion in e xternal capital market will exacerbate the rent-seeking activities of division m anagers and lead to the low efficiency in capital allocation inside firms. The p olicy implications from the model are obvious. In order to solve the problem of excess capital-raising and to improve the efficiency of investment, we must mak e the financing cost a good reflection of cost-of-capital in external capital m arket and reinforce the corporate governance inside firms. |
…………………………Zou Wei and Qian Xuesong(64) |
• Debt Financing,the Sources of Debt,and the FirmsInvestment Behavior |
Abstrat:To disclose the economic effects of the stockholder-bondholder conflic ts and debt as an element of corporate governance, this paper examined the impac t of debt financing and the sources of debt on the firms investment behavior fo r listed companies in China. The empirical results show that the higher debt rat io, the less firms investment size, and the sensitivity of two variables is af fected by the relative size between the new project risk and the original firm o perating risk. Comparing with firms with higher project risk, investment decline s more quickly as debt ratio rises in firms with lower project risk. Moreover, t he different sources of debt has the different impact on investment size. |
…………………………Tong Pan and Lu Zhengfei(75) |
• Equity Separation,Government Regulations,and Chinese IPO Underpricing Puzzle |
Abstrat:This paper analyzes the abnormal IPO underpricing in China during the period between 1995 and 2003. We find standing theories developed in advanced ma rket have little power in explaining and predicting the behaviors of the players in the game. One new analytical framework based on institutional background of Chinese security market has been raised. Equity separate and government regulati ons in the IPOs process, which are both unique China Characteristics, are the m ain factors contributing to the underpricing in our studies. Some empirical evid ences are tested robustly in support of our hypothesis. One important political implication is suggested that government de-regulation and equal-equity-right will help increasing the market efficiency. |
…………………………Liu Yuhui and Xiong Peng(85) |
• The Tendency and Causal Analysis of Capital Profit Rate Change in Chinese Industry |
Abstrat:In the last two decades, the growth efficiency had taken on a declined trend, while the total output was increasing in industry section. In this artic le, we proposed three assumptions to explain this phenomenon. The statistics stu dies which is based on the data of 1963—2003 suggests that: the factors that af fect ed the capital profit rate have changed between the two different periods. The d e scent of capital profit rate in the period of economic reform can be attributed to: the deviation of technology option, the increased of firms and the ascent of input-material price. |
…………………………Chen Zhongchang and Wu Yongqiu(96) |
• Two Faces of R&D,Activity of FDI and the Growth of Productivity of Domestic Manufacturing in China |
Abstrat:The total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technical prog ress are measured by the Malmquist productivity index based on the DEA. Controll ing the R&D, the effect of the activities of FDI on the TFP of the domestic manu facturing are estimated. The externalities of FDI is divided into the technologi cal diffusion and competitive effect; the channels of technical efficiency and t echnical progress are examined. We find that controlling the R&D, the activity o f FDI do not have significant effect on domestic manufacturing. Lower absorptive capacity of R&D cumbers the growth of TFP. The negative competitive effect comb ers the growth of technical efficiency. Through the self-innovative and positiv e competitive effect, but not technological diffusion, R&D and FDI both prompt th e technical progress of domestic manufacturing. In high-tech industries, the do m estic industries could not absorb the advanced technology embodied in FDI as the low absorptive capacity of R&D, and there is the converse technological diffusi on from the domestic sectors to foreign ones. In the traditional industries, the ir absorptive capacity is higher than Hi-tech ones, but the technological diffu sion is also not significantly. |
…………………………Zhang Haiyang(107) |
• The Effects of Tax Revenue Structure on Economic Growth and Income Distribution |
Abstrat:This paper empirically analyzes the effects of tax structure on econom y, it shows that under Chinas now economic system and tax structure, if the sha re of the category of turnover taxes, the category of income taxes, the category of resource taxes and the category of property taxes in the tax structure incre ases, the gap between the capital-owner and the labor-owner in the income dist ri bution by the market will be enlarged. However,if the share of the category of taxes for special purposes and the category of behavior taxes increases, that ga p will be closed. In the meantime, increase of the share of the category of inco me taxes, the category of resource taxes and the category of behavior taxes will make the economic scale larger, while increase of the share of the category of property taxes and the category of turnover taxes will make it smaller. Thereby in Chinas now economy, it is necessary to reform the category of income taxes a nd the category of property taxes from the aspect of the tax structure and the t ax function. Only in the respect of the adjustment of the tax structure, the sha re of the category of income taxes should be increased and the share of the cate gory of property taxes should be decreased. |
…………………………Li Shaorong and Geng Ying(118) |
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