Abstract:This paper, through testing stochastic cointegration and weak exogenous as well as short run Granger causality, empirically studies the long run steadiness of money demand in China. The main conclusions are: the long run steadiness of money demand in the case of China should be measured by a stochastic cointegration with time trend, the objective variable for the monetary policy in China is m 1 , the real effect of monetary policy is mainly reflected on the economic growth, both money demand and interest rate are weak exogenous variables for the cointegrating vector. Based on the above conclusions, the present monetary policy of China should undergo a change to prevent the economic framework from the inflationary pressures.

Abstract:This paper modifies the Markov regime switching model with time varying probabilities put forward by Abiad 2003, by assuming the month to month percentage change in the nominal exchange rate as the dependent variable, and by postulating that the dependent variable follows the 1 st order autoregressive process. Based on the modified model, this paper studies happened or potentially happened currency crises in the 12 sample countries or regions during the period between February 1978 and May 2002. According to the conclusions of this paper, the modified regime switching model is able to predict more accurately the likelihood and the dating of currency crises than standard EWSs, whereas its predicting performance is different in different countries or regions. But as a whole, the modified model has more robust predicting capability and can issue more timing warning signals than standard EWSs.

Abstract:This paper is aimed to analyze how the transformation in Chinas financial structure impacts on the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period from 1992 to 2003 are used. This paper starts out with a birds eye on the associated institutional reform of monetary policy mechanics, including changes in instruments, inflation output variability frontier target, rules and transmissional mechanism of monetary policy. By partitioning the data into two subsamples in the breakpoint sense, this paper then empirically tests the role of financial structure in determining the change in the Granger causality among available instruments of monetary policy, estimates with GMM technique the role of financial structure in determining the monetary policy reaction function, and simulates with VAR technique the role of financial structure in determining the effect of monetary policy transmission through interest rate channel. The relevant evidences show both the Granger causality between pairs of monetary policy instruments and the monetary policy reaction function are dynamically instable in transitional China. This instability indicates that with increasing endogeneity of monetary policy, the transformation of financial structure does have a role for the nature and the interest rate channels strength of monetary transmission.

Abstract:One of the prominent features of this round of economic fluctuation is that inflation as the important indicator for measuring economic overheat is not obvious. Based on the formation of aggregate demand - aggregate supply and micro foundations of macroeconomic fluctuation, this paper gives an overview of the former 4 cyclical fluctuations of Chinese economy and analyzes their intrinsic characteristics. On this basis, we concludes that the current macroeconomy has moved into a new stage, with new features different from past economic fluctuations. This paper also attempts to provide a new explanation for this round of economic fluctuation from the perspective of the driving forces of this turn of economic growth and the underlying conflicts beneath it.

Abstract:In this paper, we argue that the successful experience of industrialization in China in the last two decades can be largely explained by the adoption of the comparative advantage development strategy. To support this hypothesis, we construct an econometric model and the impacts of development strategy are tested with province level data on the TVE and SOE for the period of 1978—1997. The results are consistent with the hypotheses: the development strategy is detrimental to long term industrialization and economic growth.

Abstract:This paper studies the optimal taxation, expenditures and grants polices in a federal framework with mobile population and endogenous labor choices. In addition to the zero federal income tax and negative fiscal gap, we find the taxation competition and service competition in different levels of governments largely influence the optimal governmental and individual choices. With some policy instrument constraints, the matching grants not only meet the individual needs and balance government finance, but also correct the horizontal and vertical distortions. We also consider the relations between fiscal decentralization and interregional disparity. The congestion effect and real endowment effect magnify the usual income effect and give some interesting comparative static analysis about the fiscal policies and various parameters. The central intervention and labor mobility increase the welfare of the regions with low technology and low endowment where implicit interregional redistribution plays an important role.

Abstract:This paper investigates the evolution of regional disparity over the period 1980—2001, reviews the debate on its causes, discusses future development strategies, and draws relevant conclusions for policymakers. Our overall Gini and Theil index confirms that overall regional disparities declined in the 1980s but increased in the 1990s. The gap between the inland and coast regions was the dominant contributor to the overall regional inequality. There was no club convergence within the inland and coast regions. Economic, geographical and historical influences put the coast in a better position than the inland for growth and development. Regional development strategy and policy, globalisation and economic liberalisation, and factor market distortions are closely linked with each other and have played some role in regional disparities. It will be a long-term task to significantly reduce the regional disparity. The central government needs to implement appropriate policies to co ordinate individual provincial development strategies on the national basis.

Abstract:Using newly corporation data and rural worker data, the paper explores the issue about the urban rural huji differentials in labor capital relations. This great gap results from two aspects: one is human capital disparities between urban rural workers and corporation disparities, which explains 70—80 percents of the total urban rural huji differentials in labor capital relations; the other is huji discrimination, which explains 20—30 percents of the total differentials. The research results indicate that rural workers suffer great discriminations in labor capital relations, such as wage, pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, union members, and so on. This fact implies that if we only consider urban rural wage discriminations as many studies have ever done, we will certainly under estimate the actual welfare differentials between urban and rural workers. Furthermore, this study also provides empirical supports for more comprehensive labor market polices.

Abstract:This paper explicitly models the labor market disequilibrium process, the wage rate dynamic path, and the optimal and adaptive economizing behaviors of economic agents. Labor supply is derived from a households utility maximizing behavior, while labor demand from a firms profit maximizing behavior. A firms adaptively optimal behavior, along with some institutional factors, accounts for sticky wages, modified by labor market demand and supply. Adaptive adjustment of wage rates according to labor productivity describes the popular real world practice. The drive for productivity gains with sticky wages is the real culprit behind jobless growth.

Abstract:The functional relationship between the price and consumers Marshallian demand will be directly revealed by a new geometric method in general equilibrium framework.Based on this relationship, the transaction cost shared by individuals will be directly incorporated in the model.And then,it is proved that,if the fixed term of transaction cost doesnt equal zero, the demand function and supply function will be discontinuous. And in addition,if non infinitesimal fraction of population synchronously shift their decisions,the Walrasian equilibrium will possibly be destroyed.

Abstract:The study on the effect of information disclosure level on the cost of equity capital is a matter of considerable interest and importance to the public companies and supervisor,however,the association between disclosure level and cost of capital is not well established and has been difficult to quantify,which is more evident in the developing countries especially. In this paper,we examine the association between the cost of equity capital and voluntary disclosure level by using firm level data of 516 public companies listed in the SSE before 2002. The results suggest that greater disclosure is associated with a lower cost of equity capital after controlling for firm size and financial risk.

Abstract:This paper executes an empirical study of family members health investment, those family members belong to different gender and different lifecycle. The empirical study based on the theoretic framework of Intrahousehold Resource Allocation by the using of sample data from Chinas 8 provinces. The author controls measurement error and selection bias. Through the econometric analysis, the author finds: at the facet of two week hospitalizing probability and expenditure, those women who in the are of procreation and have infancy children always get priority status in the investment of health condition. This conclusion develops existed research results on Intra household Investment of Human Capital. The author posts that the guideline of Intrahousehold Members Investment of Human Capital has to put the market economic opportunity and non market economic opportunity into consideration. Females advantage status in upbringing their children are extremely important to womens investment of their health condition.