Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.39 No.5 May, 2004 |
• The Third-party Enforcement of Formal Contract and Optimization of Power |
Abstract:Up on the foundational research structure of contract theory, and supported by some cases, The main points of this paper are listed here: Firstly, the primary reason why wages of rural-workers are usually defaulted is not that the informal contracts between rural-workers and their direct “Relationship” employers are not implemented effectively, but is that the formal contracts which should be managed by state are not implemented effectively. Secondly, as the third-party enforcing contract by force, the reason why the State failed in managing formal contracts is that the government has absolute power in a sense. Government seeking rent abuses this absolute power. Whereas on the other hand, the comparative power of the judicial system, the direct force implemental of the state, is weakened by powerful interest groups. So it doesnt enforce the law effectively. What is more, the fail of State in maintaining rural-workers, right cannot but encourage rural-workers to choose alternative enforcement mean, which should lead contract enforcement back from “Public Constraint” to “Private Order”. This situation may induce abuse of violence endangering the stability of society in turn. So the government has to use more powerfully power in practice more frequently. That is the real reason why central government launched a nationwide movement by administration power to maintain the right of rural-workers in the end of 2003.Finally, if State wants to rebuild its authority as the third-party, it should think about how to “optimize the power of the third-party”. To optimize its power, it should build a collective choice mechanism based on obligational democracy. |
…………………………Yang Ruilong and Lu Zhoulai(4) |
• Consumption Facility Model and Provincial Consumption Facility Indexes |
Abstract:In this study we construct a Consumption Facility Model to investigate the impact of various factors on per capita consumption in China. The econometrical outcome of the model indicates that the level of urbanization is the most influential non-income factor on per capita consumption. Transport and telecommunication facilities have important impacts on consumption. The prevalence of bankcards and, possibly, the coverage of the pension system and the level of labour mobility also has positive impacts. Income disparity, indicated by Gini coefficients, may have negative impact on per capita consumption. Based on the empirical estimates, we establish a Provincial Consumption Facility Index to rate the conditions of consumption facilities in Chinas provinces. This index will be useful for indicating the trend of consumption variation in different provinces. |
…………………………Fan Gang and Wang Xiaolu(13) |
• The Effect of Indirect Tax Incidence on In come Distribution |
Abstract:Using data from the city household survey of Guangdong Province, we studied the incidences of three major indirect taxes in different income groups. The three taxes include value added tax, consumption tax and business tax. We found that the low income families pay more percentage of their income as value added tax or consumption tax than the high income families. But the high income families business tax burden is more than the low income families. The whole indirect tax is approximately proportional to income in different income groups. The indirect taxes get the distribution of after-tax income worse but not significantly. |
…………………………Liu Yi and Nie Haifeng(22) |
• Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in China |
Abstract:After comparing the three methods of estimating potential output, the paper estimates potential output, output gap and potential growth rate for the period from 1978 to 2002 in China. The main conclusions are as follows: 1 The output gap presented classical business cycle character from 1978 to 2002. 2 The output gap fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1995, but more smoothly after 1996 especially after 1999. 3 The increasing trend of output gap obviously changed smoothly and presented some appearances of turnover in 2002, which suggested the active fiscal policy which had been implemented from 1998 had significant effects on preventing economy from slowdown and depression. 4For the period from 1978 to 2002 by using the detrending method and the production method respectively,we can concluded that average potential growth rate. |
…………………………Guo Qingwang and Jia Junxue(31) |
• Convergence in Chinese Cities |
Abstract:Lucas 1988, 2002 has been emphasizing the role of city in economic growth theoretically, which is, however, in dark empirically. We, therefore, try to explore the Lucas ideas based on the 216 cities in China, finding that the income converges absolutely, despite no such pattern emerges across provinces. To investigate the underlying mechanism, we estimate the separate contributions of diminishing return and technology transfer to the rate of absolute convergence, which are provided by the neo-classical growth theory and the new growth theory, separately, and find both are important. Our findings are robust, and shed some highlights in regional disparity. |
…………………………Xu Xianxiang and Li Xun(40) |
• FDI Policy,National Welfare and Economic Development |
Abstract:This article develops an economic model to analyze the problems concerning FDI policy and its economic effects in China. It is shown that the short-run national welfare can be maximized by laissez-free FDI policy; but for long-run dynamic considerations, the incentive packages of FDI whether to increase the national welfare depends upon the effect of FDI on the technological level of national enterprises. |
…………………………Yu Jinping(49) |
• Empirical Assessment on the Effectiveness of Joint Intervention in the Foreign Exchang Market |
Abstract:This paper is an attempt to assess the effectiveness and the its duration of joint intervention on the exchange rate by utilizing the intervention analysis model and employing the spot rates between US and Japanese currencies from August 15, 1996 to January 6, 1999 from Reuters. The conclusion is that there is no significant difference between the effectiveness of joint intervention and independent intervention. In addition the intervention has significant impact on the exchange rate, but has only short-term impact on the exchange rates. |
…………………………Chen Langnan and Huang Xun(58) |
• A Prudent Opportunistic Choice Model Of Exchange Rate Regime |
Abstract:We extend the additional costs from the Obstfelds second generation model of currency crises with self-fulfilling features and present a model of exchange rate regime choice concerned the economic structure, the economic shock and prudent regulation. Our model based on the costs analyzing is to sheds lights the impacts of capital controls, abandon cost and government preference on the economy equilibrium and exchange rate regime choice. The research shows that capital controls may affect the economy equilibrium through many paths. The capital controls can increase the possibility of currency crises. On the other hand, control measures also can decrease the possibility of crises and sustain the fixed exchange rate regime more stable only if on the certain condition described in the context. Second, the model explains the impacts of capital controls, abandon costs and government preference on the exchange rate choice. The abandon cost plays the important role in the exchange rate regime choice. Here decision-makers also can pay some costs and buy financial security for their nation if on the certain condition mentioned as following under which capital controls can prevent crises. Finally, we use a simple empirical analysis on the abandon cost of existing RMB exchange rate regime, which shows that the RMB exchange rate regime is now in harmony with the capital account management and when we can adopt the more flexible exchange rate regime may be decided by decreasing of abandon costs of the RMB exchange rate regime. |
…………………………Zhou Maorong and Guo Jianquan(67) |
• Long-term Projections of Chinas Ability of Feed Itself:Technical and Policy Analysis |
Abstract:China,with one-fifth of the worlds population and rapidly rising incomes,is a country which has naturally been open to speculation about its ability to feed itself over the next several decades.Population will grow from 1.28 billion in 2000,to 1.46 billion in 2020,and 1.49 billion in 2030.Simultaneously,per capita income growth will lead to greater demand for animal and fish products,thus resulting in expanded feedstuffs requirements.The objective of the research reported on was to determine the extent to which China will be able to maintain its current level of being essentially self-sufficient in animal feedstuffs,animal and fish products,and other foods for humans.The research method used is to calculate all animal and fish requirements and availabilities on the basis of metabolizable energy ME and crude protein CP.It is concluded that technicall,despite human population growth and changes in diet,China can continue to meet its energy requirements for animal and fish feedstuffs.However,protein requirements are projected to exceed the base period of 1999—2001 domestically produced availabilities by 13 percent in 2010,32 percent in 2020 and 37 percent in 2030.That gap will have to be met by expanded domestic production,or increased imports.Implications of the projected shortfalls on policy options are discussed later.The projections are based on conservative crop yield increases and per capita consupmtion projections drived from the economy growing at a moderately robust pace.Constraints on Chinas natural resources are taken into account,but the great potential biotechnology will probably have on crop production worldwide is not factored in.It can be expected there will be years in which imports will likely be needed and other years of surpluses due to climatic variations and other factors.Human consumption of food from sources other than livestock commodities is taken into consideration in the modeling. |
…………………………James R.Simpson and Li Ou(76) |
• Research on Change of Committed Investment Project of Listed Company in China |
Abstract:The paper performs a research on the 322 listed companies which raised fund in 2000 by public offering, and at the first time defines the change of committed investment projects of raised fund as concealed change and obvious change.The conclusions of the paper are:1 Among listed companies, changing committed investment project of raised fund is a common phenomenon, and many of such changes are relatively distinct;2IPO companies change their committed investment project of raised fund more frequently and to a higher extend than do other companies;3 The amount of listed companies concealed changes is much more than that of obvious changes, and the raised fund left unused become a serious issue;4 The scale of the listed companies has negative correlation with change of committed investment project;5The main reason which lead to investment change of listed companies is the lack of restrictions from four aspects on listed companies;6In short term, the changes of committed investment project have obvious effect on the companies operation performance. At the end, the paper put forward some policy proposals. |
…………………………Liu Shaobo and Dai Wenhui(88) |
• Accouting Contracts of the Firm:Dynamic Process and Its Efficiency |
Abstract:Firms accounting contracts are the main components of nexus of contracts in a firm. Coordination of conflicts among stakeholders can be accomplished through the process of accounting contracts. The metering and monitoring functions which are required by contractual mechanism in a firm should be placed on the dynamic process and optimization of accounting contracts. Agreement of accounting contract includes risk values assessing, cooperative residual forecasting and its distributive policy making. To complete accounting contract, its necessary to use “introspective” and “extrapolative” ways. Performance of accounting contracts is operated by law and self-enforcing approaches. To elevate the operating efficiency of accounting contracts, we should allocate the residual control rights of accounting contracts to the stakeholder whose decision has the most efficient effects, and use formalizing methods of accounting contracts. |
…………………………Lei Guangyong(98) |
• A Survey of Theoretical and Empirical Study on Small Business Finance |
Abstract:This survey is conducted mainly on the small firms demand for finance, credit rationing, and the macroeconomic shock to small firms. It is the serious information asymmetry and the high integration that determine the divergence between small business finance and the traditional theory, and the notable credit rationing in small firms. But it also shows that there exists no credit gap in the start-up enterprises if the human capital, as the real factor connected with the firms survival, is considered, which will open a new train of thought for the policy makers. Finally, the macroeconomic shock to small firms is so large that should be taken into account by government in order to realize the coordinated development of different scale firms. |
…………………………Tian Xiaoxia(107) |
• China Equilibrium and Legacy |
Abstract:In economic history, China had a distinguished equilibrium pattern from her counterparts in the West Europe. In contrast with the manorial economy, China institutionalized her economy with a set of Jianzhi variables. Using a dynamic model, the authors demonstrated that China economy won its glory in the past and left a strong legacy. The institutions of different economies today, though rooted in their remote past, are not simple competitors but learning partners each other today. |
…………………………Cao Heping(117) |
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