Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.39 No.4 April, 2004 |
• Growth in the Open Economy and Policy Options |
Abstract:Economic openness and high accumulation of capital both promote Chinas economic growth, in which the dominant role of government is very remarkable. The paper firstly indicate that:1trade-oriented strategy can be sustained though more and more trade disputes take place, and 2 foreign investment is still needed as the great amount of rural labor force to be shifted from land are taken into consideration, the potential capital formation gap is still large even if there seems no actual saving gap. The paper then points out that since there are serious distortions due to government intervention in the policy of opening-up and the mechanism of capital formation, the risk of structural distortion will be accumulated with economic growth. This kind of distorted structure could be more vulnerable in the phase of financial openness. Therefore, the main theme of our paper is to promote the process of rural labor migration and growth by making full use of foreign resources, eliminating the institutional distortions, optimizing the resource allocation, and downsizing the risk of outside shock. |
…………………………Task Group(4) |
• A Quantitative Analysis on the Effects of Chinas WTO Accession to World Economy |
Abstract:Would the growing competition from Chinese industrial exports de-industrialize Southeast Asia SEA, returning SEA to being a primary commodity exporter Or would there be sufficient lucrative niches within the manufacturing production chains that SEA could specialize in Our simulations of the G-Cubed Asia Pacific model suggest that the full integration of Chinas huge labor force into the international division of labor would de-industrialize SEA only if two conditions are met: foreign direct investment is significantly redirected away from SEA toward China, and SEA allows the drop in FDI inflow to lower the rate of technological diffusion to its economies. If SEA could prevent itself from falling behind technologically by finding new ways to absorb new foreign technologies quickly and by increasing the indigenous capacity for technical innovations, then it could find lucrative niches within the international manufacturing production chains. The policy implication is that SEA must give the highest priority to deepening and widening it pool of human capital by speeding up the diffusion of new knowledge to its scientists and managers, and providing appropriate retraining programs for the displaced workers. |
…………………………Warwick J. Mckibbin and Wing Thye woo(16) |
• Local Protectionism and Industrial Concentration in China |
Abstract:The paper studies the overall time trend of geographic concentration of Chinas industries and the factors important to its changes. We attempt to address the following questions: Why are some industries concentrated in a few locations while others scattered across many provinces How has the overall degree of industrial concentration changed during the economic reform While investigating factors influencing industrial localization, we pay special attention to the role of local protectionism. On the overall time trend of Chinas industrial concentration, our finding is in sharp contrast with that of Always Young in his widely-know paper. Using dynamic penal analysis, we find that industries with higher tax-plus-profit ratio in the past and those with higher share of state owned enterprises tend to have higher degree of local protectionism, and therefore lower level of industrial concentration. In addition to local protectionism, we also examine the impact of scale economies and external economies on industrial concentration. |
…………………………Bai Chongen,Du Yingjuan,Tao Zhigang and Sarah Y.Tong(29) |
• Chinas Industrial Restructuring,Efficiency and Its Labor Allocation |
Abstract:Using the 1999—2001 data from recent firm surveys, this paper analyzes the impacts of Chinas industrial restructuring on its efficiency and labor allocation. The results show that the adjustment of Chinas industrial structure has been in line with its endowments of resources and factors to production. The faster growth of light industries and labor-intensive industries not only improves the overall efficiency of Chinas manufacturing industry, but also contributes to alleviating unemployment issues. The policy implication is that the development of light industries and labor-intensive industries should be a prior policy and combine with further reforming the ownership of State-Owed Enterprises SOEs and speeding up the structural adjustment to improve industrial activities and its competitiveness in the traditional old industrial bases. |
…………………………Wang Dewen,Wang Meiyan and Chen Lan(41) |
• The Puzzle of Equity Financing Preference in Chinas Listed Companies |
Abstract:Chinas listed companies strongly preferred to equity financing. Traditionally, the academe ascribed such a phenomenon to the lower cost of equity financing. However, our analysis shows that capital cost cannot well explain such a phenomenon. Therefore, we use a Logit model, examining the determinants of Chinas listed companies financing behavior from the aspects of financing cost, bankruptcy risk, debt capacity, agency cost and corporate control. Our analysis shows that the lower the companys capital size and free cash, the higher the ROE and the share of the controlling shareholders, the more likely the company would choose equity financing. But our analysis does not find that bankruptcy risk and growth have an impact on companys financing decision. Besides, our analysis shows that equity cost is positively related to the probability of equity financing. Finally, we propose some policy implications. |
…………………………Lu Zhengfei and Ye Kangtao(50) |
• A Model of Fictitious Economy and Real Economy |
Abstract:In the past years, Chinese stock market has distinctly deviated from real economy. This paper tries to explain the phenomenon from an angle of fictitious economy. We firstly review the research on the deviate relationships between stock market and real economy, on the base of which we set up a model of fictitious economy and real economy. We find that the yield difference between fictitious assets and real assets is the leading reason, which arises from the asymmetry of stock market structure and real economy one. However, the fundamental reason of asymmetry is the lagging system reform of capital market. |
…………………………Liu Junmin and Wu Chaoming(60) |
• Number of Directors、Board Stability and Performance:Theory and Experience |
Abstract:As essential organ of conference exerting corporate property rights by representing corporation,Board of directors is the core of corporate governance structure. Normative and empirical analysis show that proprietary characteristics of board of directors can influence their functions,and influence corporate performance.Our empirical analysis shows that there is inverse U relations between size of board of directors and performance,and former performance are better,current board stability are stronger.At the same time,governance improvement and jumping ship hypothesis havent been approved. |
…………………………Yu Dongzhi and Chi Guohua(70) |
• Empirical Research on Stakeholders3-dimension Classification in Chinese Enterprises |
Abstract:Adopting Multi-dimensions classification method and Mitchell score-based approach which are popular in western academy, 10 stakeholders in Chinese enterprises were classified, from 3 dimensions active tendency, importance and urgency, into 3 categories: core stakeholders, dormant stakeholders and marginal stakeholders. The data were collected by interviews with 67 employees in 22 enterprises and 423 valid questionnaires answered by volunteer staffs who dispersed in 9 provinces or duchy cities in china. Moreover, the differences of recognition on stakeholders classification in Chinese enterprises among different individual elements and different enterprise elements were analyzed in detail. |
…………………………Chen Honghui and Jia Shenghua(80) |
• Heterogeneity Selection Bias and the Return to Education:A Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Micro-data |
Abstract:This paper uses newly available Chinese micro data to estimate the return to college education for late 20th century China when allowing for heterogeneous returns among individuals selecting into schooling based on these differences. We use modern micro-econometric methods to identify the parameters of interest. We demonstrate that heterogeneity among people in returns to schooling is substantial. People sort into schooling on the basis of the principle of comparative advantage, which we document to be an empirically important phenomenon in modern Chinese labor markets. Standard least squares or instrumental variable methods do not properly account for this sorting. Using new methods that do, we estimate the effect on earnings of sending a randomly selected person to college is a 43% increase in lifetime earnings nearly 11% annually in 2000 for young people in urban areas of six provinces of China. Our evidence, and simple least squares evidence, suggests that after 20-plus years of economic reform with market orientation, the return to education has increased substantially in China, compared to the returns measured in the 1980s and the early 1990s. |
…………………………Li Xuesong and James Heckman(91) |
• Uncertainty during Economic Transition and Household Consumption Behavior in Urban China |
Abstract:By means of 1995,1999,and 2002 cross-section urban household survey data,the paper examines how the uncertainty factors,such as income uncertainty,unemployment risk,uncertainty of medical expenses and educational expenses,affect household consumption in urban China. The results denote that such uncertainty factors have significant negative effects on household consumption in urban China. The degree of the effects is changed with the predictability of such factors. Therefore,enhancing the predictability of economic policy and building up a perfect social security system will play critical role in risk sharing of the households. |
…………………………Luo Chuliang(100) |
• The Cropland Conversion:Contracting Out and Public Regulation |
Abstract:The Cropland Conversion Program is an important public policy for improving ecological environment. Focusing on the arrangement of structure of property rights, the Program tries to establish a new contractual relationship between government and farmers so as to reduce negative externalities by cultivating activities and encourage the afforesting activities that are conducive to the improvement of ecological environment. Within the framework of principal-agent model, this paper studies incentive-incompatibility problems that may exist in the enforcement of the contract. Firstly, the paper makes an analysis on the social rationality of the contacting out. The analysis is followed by a model to show how market shocks may cause the behavior of farmers to be inconsistent as to the goal of the program. Then, taking The Cropland Conversion Program of Shannxi Province as a study case, the paper makes an empirical analysis on incentive-incompatibility problems facing the enforcement of specific public policies. Finally, the paper proposes a series of public regulation schemes in the hope that they can be used to improve the efficiency of the enforcement of the program. |
…………………………Wang Xiaolong (107) |
• Governance Structure Of Residual Control Rights Over Irrigation Infrastructure-A Theoretic Model And Implications For Policies |
Abstract:The attitudes towards risks of WSCwater supply company and WUAswater users association is the main factor underlying arrangements of residual control rights. Besides it, variances of variables and the sensitive level of depreciation to efforts from WSC or WUAS determine the settings of residual control rights. If the sensitive extent of depreciation to efforts chosen by WSC and WUAs is not zero, the joint governance structure of residual control rights is optimal. The governance structure of residual control rights over irrigation infrastructure is an outcome of comparison between the gains induced by decreasing opportunism and costs induced by decreasing incentives of ownership. It should not be a final goal to establish the financially autonomous WSC and WUAs, the core of management reform of an irrigation district is the allocation of the residual control rights. |
…………………………Han Hongyun and Zhao Liange(117) |
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