Economic Research Journal (Monthly) No.11 November, 2003 |
• The Effects on Resource Allocation and Output:The Macroeconomic Costs of Financial Corruption |
Abstract:This paper revised Solow-Swan and Ramsey growth models to show the macroeconomic effects of financial corruption. Conclusions are following. First, the rent-seeking activities of financial sector distorts the price of fund, which leads to resource misallocation and efficiency loss. Second, there is a Laffer curve relationship between financial corruption, output and capital stock, thus multi equilibria exist. Third, financial corruption which are based on fund scar city results in more scarcity. Finally, financial corruption blocks saving and investment, hence the macroeconomic growth models can be reconsidered. |
…………………………Xie Ping and Lu Lei(3) |
• Concentration,Competition and Performance in Banking |
Abstract:The industrial structure of bank varies in countries since every country allocat es its own financial assets differently from others.Therefore,the industrial str ucture of relative concentration bank,which consists of a few big banks,would no t be bound to degrade the degree of competition.In China,the industrial structur e of highly Concentration of banking is not the main reason that hinders the com petition between banks.And there is evidence that banking in China compete with each other in the business of deposit and loan.The main cause,which leads to low allocation efficiency of financial assets,is that operational mechanism of stat e\|owned banks is lack of flexibility and the banks perform poorly.Therefore,eve n if process of commercialization of state\|owned banks in China accelerates gre atly,it should not over\|separate the structure of the banking,and it had better keep relative concentration rate to improve the efficiency of allocation of fin ancial assets in China. |
…………………………Liu Wei and Huang Guitian(14) |
• The Verity Test for Chinas “Deflation Exportation”View |
Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to test whether the phenomenon of Chinas “deflation exportation” exists by studying the interaction of the import and export prices of China, Japan and US according to the pass-through theory. In order to ma ke the test result more robust, we retained the innovations of empirical methods used in our former researches Sun and Jiang, 2003, such as instrumental variable estimation IV, general method of moments GMM, ARIMA forecast model. Besides, we applied these methods to the different sample periods determined by the results of Chow Test. Furthermore, we used the Regime Switching Model to test the restrictive effects under three kinds of price environments that are influenced by the monetary policy. In order to show the dynamic characteristics of pass-through effect more clearly, we also made Variance Decomposition on the vector moving average VMA model.According to the empirical method above, we came to two important policy implications. First, the opinion that China exports deflation is based on the macro\|view of “expenditure switching mechanism". It ignores the micro factors such as pricing ability of the import and export companies. Thus this view does not accord to the real situation reflected by the data. Second, one countrys monetary policy can have a restrictive influence on the foreign countries pass-through effect into domestic prices, which is extremely obvious in the US. |
…………………………Sun Lijian and Jiang Yan(22) |
• The Contribution to Economic Growth from Export in China—Empirical Analysis Based on the I/O Table |
Abstract:This paper gives a method for measuring the contribution to GDP and economic growth from export through the I/O table analysis. Based on the Chinese I/O table of 1997,the contribution to GDP and economic growth from export in China from 1997 to 2001 is calculated. The contribution to economic growth from export of every sector is also calculated and analyzed. At last, this paper disclosed and analyzed the real reason why the rate of contribution from per unit of export decreased from 1997 to 2001. |
…………………………Shen Lisheng and Wu Zhenyu(33) |
• An Empirical Analysis of Agent Cost in China SOEs |
Abstract:Based on a data set of “Survey on China SOEs Reform” in 2002, and according to maximum likelihood estimation process of Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno, we estimate the agent cost of China SOEs. Overall, the total agent cost caused about 60—70 percent loss of potential profit! At the estimated parameters the cost of worker risk aversion is about one-third of total agent cost, and incomplete information accounted for other two-third of the agent cost. Therefor e, selling out SOEs to agents who are risk neutral might result in 20 percent increase in firms profit, and decentralization of control right in SOEs would also improve economic efficiency. |
…………………………Ping Xinqiao,Fan Ying and Hao Chaoyan(42) |
• Characteristics of Takeover Targets in China Equity Market |
Abstract:This study empirically investigates the listed companies of Chinas A Share Market taken over in 1999—2001, using statistical analysis such as ANOVA, Logit model. We find out the characteristics of targets companies relative to non-targets companies: 1 the managements are inefficient; 2 financial resources are insufficient; 3 firms sizes are smaller; 4 the equities are more dispersed; 5 the equity liquidities are high; 6 book-to-market ratio are much lower than non-targets. Though the logit models fitting prediction attains 71 8% accuracy, and the model is capable of fitting target companies well, investors cannot gain abnormal returns by investing the predicted companies equities. |
…………………………Li Shanmin and Zeng Zhaozao(54) |
• Accounting Rules and the Bias in Execution—Evidence from Dual Reporting Differences by the Chinese A-H Share Companies |
Abstract:It is an important approach enhancing the effectiveness of accounting rules in execution in order to control the financial information bias in corporate governance. Based on the tests of differences between the dual reports in 1994—2000 by cross-listed Chinese A-H share companies in the Mainland China and Hong Kong respectively, we found that the new accounting system in 1998 did not reduce the differences notably. We got the implication that the behavior by companies in their accounting and reporting practice before and after 1998 is the real reason resulting in the dual reports disclosure differences. |
…………………………Wang Liyan and Liu Junxia(71) |
• The Distribultion of Production,Population and Regional Inequality |
Abstract:Both static and dynamic comparative studies reveal that production polarization in China is not high and population polarization is too low. The main cause for this inequality is not over concentration of production but great imbalance between the distribution of production and that of population in the eastern areas, which is the result of the concentration of only production but not of corresponding population in the eastern coastal areas in the past 50 years from 1952 to 2001. An effective strategy to solve the problem of regional inequality is to encourage people in poor central and western areas to move to developed core eastern areas. |
…………………………Li Guoping and Fan Hongzhong(79) |
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