Abstract:Using a unique dataset from Zhongguancun Science Park of Beijing, this paper explores the determinants of high-tech firm survival, especially the effects of firm efficiency, net-debt ratio, and ownership on the hazard rate of exit. Our main finding is that firm efficiency has increasingly become the primary factor in affecting the chance of survival in the Zhongguancun Science Park, indicating the growing significance of market forces as a result of Chinas economic reforms since late 1970s. However, as a legacy of the planning economy, the “soft budget constraint" syndrome still remains: while net-debt ratio positively and significantly affects the hazard rate of exit for non-state-owned firms, its overall effect on the government-owned firms is not significant, and decreases with the level of the government to which the firms are affiliated. We also find a declining role of state ownership in protecting the survival of firms over the sample period.

Abstract:The paper utilizes data envelope analysis method to research the performance and effectives of Merger and Acquisitions M&A of 103 Chinese listed companies in 1998. We confirm the effectiveness of the corporations be strengthened steadily after M&A. Strategic M&A have better effects. State owned shares have negative effects on M&A activities while privately owned shares have positive results.

Abstract:The study investigates the institutional factors about the private-owned enterprises POE organizational-entry on the data form 312 professional executives in China.We find that the opportunity of the occupational development,salary,the owners trust in executive,the justice about earning and promotion,firm size and image are the most important factors for the executives entry.The POE exceeds the state-owned enterprises SOE and the foreign-owned enterprises FOE in the opportunity of the occupational development,which indicates that the Family Management Model in POE will be transformed.Although its organizational attractiveness is weaker than SOEs and FOEs,POE can attract executives in the case of the other institutional factors gain ascendancy.According to the effect of improvement,the order of factors is the opportunity of the occupational development,the justice about earning and promotion,salary,firm size and image and the owners trust in executive when POE facing market competition.The POE should pay more attention to the factors that opportunity of the occupational development,salary,firm size and the owners trust in executive when competing with SOE,and attach importance to the opportunity of the occupational development,the justice about earning and promotion,firm size and image while in competition with FOE.

Abstract:Under the environment with economic uncertainty, we use the absolute deviation, conditional variance and growth at risk to measure the country risks and conditional volatilities. We also use the response function to describe the dynamic responds of growth level to country risk, and test the relationship between growth and volatility by linear regression. The empirical evidences show that there is spillover effect of volatility during the business cycle. This means that the increase in volatility has positive effect on growth level. We are able to know that uncertain factors and external shocks do not influence Chinas growth trend significantly by analyzing the process of country risk transmission. China has more powers to prevent its economy from the impacts of external shocks.

Abstract:During the Asian financial crises the banking crisis and currency crisis happened simultaneously. The coincidence of banking and currency crises has drawn renewed interests to causal and common factors linking the two crises and raised issue that whether the coincidence of twin crises can be generalized. The theoretical analysis indicated the linkages between the banking and currency crises. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study, which investigates the causal linkages between banking and currency crises based on the data from industrial economies and emerging market economies. We adopt the frequency distribution, the noise-signal approaches, and bivariate and multivariate probit regression models to study joint occurrence between banking and currency crises. Our conclusion is that the strong contemporaneous correlation between currency and banking crises in emerging markets is robust and banking crises is a significant leading indicator of future currency crises, but not vice versa.

Abstract:This paper exams two portfolios, Winner and Loser, which are constructed via the past 6-month CARs of the stocks heavily held by security funds in China. The study found that the trend of contrary happened to the winner while the trend of momentum occurred to the loser. The study also found that the future 12-month CARs from the winner and the loser are negatively associated with the market value of tradable shares and the share-holding proportion of the security funds, while positively associated with the earnings per share. Thus, the authors pointed that there exist Size Effect, Effect of Share-holding by Security Funds and EPS Effect. The authors suggest that the reasons behind "the loser to be more losing while the winner is changed to be loser" may be attributed to the two actions of the security funds in China, one is their speculations for short-term profit based on investors following market, and the other is their self-controlling based on their stopping losing.

Abstract:Whether the price limits enhance investor overreaction is an important issue for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the price limit system in China stock market. Some empirical studies had showed that China stock market overreacts when the stock prices close at price limits. However, we find that price limits can significantly reduce, rather enhance, investor overreaction, although they cannot eliminate investor overreaction fully. Furthermore, we find that price limits themselves cannot induce investor overreaction. So we conclude that price limits do not enhance investor overreaction when price close at price limits.

Abstract:In this paper two intrinsic value-Book Value ratio models based on residual income earnings valuation theory are developed, by which the deficiencies of traditional linear information models built by Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 are made up. According to the models, intrinsic value-book value ratio depends on the cost of capital, return on equity, policy of earnings distribution and time limit of residual income or lifetime of company. It is estimated that, on average, market price of stock in Mainland China is much higher than its value estimate and that the market price for ST class stock is even higher. Presently, the adjustment experiencing in Chinese stock market is of structural and institutional characteristics and will probably last for long time period.

Abstract:Targeting on the current institutional change experienced by Chinas social pension system, this paper constructs a two-period dynamic life cycle simulation model in a general equilibrium framework. We quantitatively simulate the economic effects of this institutional change from five different dimensions. Our analysis shows that after the institutional change, capital, output and capital-output ratio will rise, interest rate decrease and wage rate increase, individual utility improve and pension replacement rate rise, income distribution gap reduce and some transition price emerge; generally speaking, the economic effects of the institutional change of Chinas social pension system are positive.