Economic Research Journal (Monthly) No.5 May, 2003 |
• Saving Behavior in a Transition Economy:an Empirical Case Study of Rural China |
Abstract:Using a large set of household—level survey data, this paper explores determinants of saving behaviour in rural China. The rich specification of the model, necessarily ad hoc, enables consideration of an extensive array of variables. It is found that a liquidity constraints, precautionary motives and industrialisation contribute positively to the unusually high saving rate in China; b culture is a significant factor in helping explain inter-regional differences in saving rate; c the life cycle hypothesis is rejected since a “U-pattern”, contrary to the commonly claimed “hump”, is discovered; and d the permanent income hypothesis is not accepted as wealth is found to be negatively related to savings. |
…………………………Wan Guanghua,Shi Qinghua and Tang Shumei(3) |
• Opportunistic Restructuring and Regulation Rigidity |
Abstract:Using 1202 restructuring samples of companies listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange, this paper intends to explore the relation between restructuring and government regulation. We find that the regulator sticks to ROE, which was set up during the period of economy overheat, to regulate firm-level SEO activities, although the real economy growth has decreased a lot during late 1990s. The rigidity of regulation motivates listed companies to restructure opportunistically. Our findings can be viewed as new evidence against “substituting regulation”. |
…………………………Chen Xinyuan,Ye Pengfei and Chen Donghua(13) |
• Framework on Chinas Fiscal Risk |
Abstract:In this paper, the author presents a fiscal-risk framework based on the conception that the government is a public entity instead of an economic entity. In the opinion of the author, fiscal risk emerges when private risk develops into public risk, and it is relevant to institutional evolvement. Two aspects will be discussed when evaluating fiscal risk. The first is about public resources owned by the government, and the second is about its responsibility and obligation on public expenditure as it is meaningless to only concern the public debt. The author also points out that fiscal risk in China spreads widely due to institutional flaws where the basic rule for the symmetry of return and risk has already been destroyed and various risks are thus generated and centralized. Finally, the author argues that the emphases of reform in the near future are to create risk. |
…………………………Liu Shangxi(23) |
• An Empricial Study on the Influence Mechanism of the Trade Development and Economic Growth in China |
Abstract:Exploring the mechanism of trade and growth, this paper shows that increasing international trade proportion and decreasing domestic trade proportion raise output per capita through promoting the structure of factor endowment and institution adjustment, for domestic trade proportion is, in a sense, associated with fragmentation of the domestic market and distortion of factor allocation. Although no significant relation exists between technology change and international trade, a significantly positive relationship does exist between technology change and domestic trade. In addition, human capital also does not play an important role between trade and output per capita. |
…………………………Shen Kunrong and Li Jian(32) |
• On Chinas Economy Long-term Growth |
Abstract:Whether Chinese economy can maintain long-term fast growth, this article brings up an affirmation solution based in my economic growth model. The basic conclusion of this model is, one economical systems long-term growth advancement divides into accelerates and decelerates stages, accelerated growth stage is efficiency to urbanization and industrialization economical system. China still located in industrialization and urbanization process, its the accelerated economic growth time, moreover,this process also had to maintain quite long time. Therefore, Chinese economy can maintain fast growth for a long time. |
…………………………Liu Xiahui(41) |
• The Impacts of Capital Controls on the Economy under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime |
Abstract:We christiane Nickel 2001 and present a modified Dornbusch overshoot model to study the impacts of different controlling degree of different capital on the economy with a microstructure in the foreign exchange market. It is found that the impact on the stability of price-exchange rate system is an alternative choice between saddle stability and entire stability, while the conclusion relaxing of capital controls makes the economy switch from saddle stability to entire stability and feel more safe seems to give some supports to the bipolar views on the change trend of recent exchange rate regime arrangements since 1990s. At the same time capital controls can increase output and real equilibrium exchange rate under particular conditions depending on the quantitative relations among some variables. |
…………………………Guo Jianquan and Zhou Maorong(48) |
• Structural Changes,Efficiency Improvement and Electricity Demand Forecasting |
Abstract:This paper uses a macroeconomic approach to develop a long run electricity demand model to analyze the main factors affecting electricity demand in the PRC. As expected, the relationship among variables are more stable and significant after the PRC economic reforms 1978, when all factors are more responsive to market forces.The demand elasticity of GDP is estimated at about 0.8 after the 1978 PRC economic reforms, lower than the pre-reform period before 1978. The results show that, although GDP is still the most important factor for electricity demand, the electricity demand is negatively related with structural changes and efficiency improvement in the PRC. This implies that in a fast growing economy, high GDP growth does not always go with high electricity demand and this explains why in 1998, when the PRC had an economic growth rate of 7 8%, electricity consumption grew by only 2 8%. |
…………………………Lin Boqiang(57) |
• The Industrial Characteristic of Capital Structure:an Empirical—Study on Chinese Listed Companies |
Abstract:This paper classifies the Chinese listed companies according to CSRCs industry classification standard,and conducts a through empirical study on the industrial characteristic of capital structure.Results show that:1.There is optimal capital structure with Chinese listed companies and industry is one of the determinant factors.2.There are significant difference among the capital structures of different industries.And about 9.5% of the differences among companies can be explained by industries.3.The capital structure of the same industry is rather stable.4.There isnt significant difference among different sub-industries in the same broader industry. |
…………………………Guo Pengfei and Sun Peiyuan(66) |
• The Research on Governance Effect of Top-Management Stock Incentive—Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies |
Abstract:In this paper,we examine the relation between corporate governance ,executive managers stock incentive and enhancement of corporate performance . We find: Firstly, There exists selection bias, for adopting stock incentive companies whose performances are high before adopting stock incentive plan. Secondly, the coefficient between increasing shares of top-management and the ratio of directors who serve on the largest shareholder is positive and significant.Thirdly, as for companies with high growth opportunity, the coefficient between improvements in firm performance and increasing shares of top-management is positive and significant. Fourthly, incentive effect of obliging top-management share, buying negotiable shares with salary and mixing model are better. |
…………………………Zhou Jianbo and Sun Jusheng(74) |
• The Frontier of Corporate Governance:a Survey |
Abstract:Corporate governance,a critical component of financial economics,which emphasizes the interrelationships among pledgeable income,monitoring,and control rights,has entered into a new stage with the development of contract and incentive theory.This paper surveys recent academic literatures on this field using a unifying and simple framework.It also offers some explanations for the coexistence of multiple securities with differentiated control rights.For the first time,this paper provides preliminary analysis of the concept of the stakeholder society.The macroeconomic consequences of corporate governance are then analyzed.Finally,we pay special attention to the importance of the legal protection of investors and that of ownership concentration in corporate governance. |
…………………………Yao Wei,Huang Zhuo and Guo Lei(83) |
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