Economic Research Journal (Monthly) No.7 July, 2002 |
• Value Creation and its Implication to Company Performance Measurement |
Abstract:Theoretically,the paper analyses how value creation differs from profit\|based performance measurement; empirically,it estimates the value created by Chinese quoted companies over 1997 to 2000.There is a concerning problem in using public companys ac\|counting reports for academic studies,since it has been widely reported on the possible exaggeration of profits in their accounting statements.To take this into account,we employed a set of economic and accounting techniques to detect it,and found some 20% of the sample companies with highly suspicious profit figures.Having removed the suspicious observations from the sample,we found that value\|destroying firms accounted more than 70% of all companies listed in Chinas stock market.The implication of the finding is clear:it is optimal for investors to play market opportunistically,rather than to take long run inverstment in firms,since the companies cannot bit the market in generating returns to investors.This view explains why Chinas stock market has a persistent higher turnover relative to the total market value,ranked as No 3 of the speculative markets in the world.The policy implication of the study is that it will be most preferred if turning around value destroying firms to value creators prior to sales of the state holding of shares; otherwise,it will be less preferred for selling state shares at a lower price,since it will be hardly to find any privates in willing to pay a good price to take over the state and become a long run investor of a value\|destroying company. |
…………………………Liu Shaojia and Cong Shuhai(3) |
• The Forecasting and Warning Model for Foreign Debt Risk in Assessing China Financial Safe Status |
Abstract:This paper develops and tests a new Multivariate Cumulative Sum MCS model for assessing a countrys foreign debt risk.The MCS model is dynamic in nature and allows a user to predict early enough a financial distress crisis that could lead to debt rescheduling.The findings suggest that the MCS model is capable of detecting potential debt repayment difficulties as early as three years in advance.The MCS model is used to evaluate Chinas financial safe status. The results indicates that an early warning signal for China can be facilitated by the MCS model as early as one year in advance. |
…………………………Lin Boqiang(14) |
• Analyses to Chinas Hi-tech Patent Application and Innovation |
Abstract:By the data analyses to hi\|tech patent application by and grant to domestic & foreign citizens,this paper tried to explore the dynamics of patent composition for both application and grant.In the meantime,by the econometric analyses to the relationship among Chinas industrial market sizes,importations and patent applications from both domestic and foreign,we tried to demonstrate the effectiveness of hi\|tech patent protection,the behaviors of patent applications and the characteristics of different industrial technologies,to show the dynamic relations between international technological innovation and foreign application,and to discuss the possible connections between external knowledge and independent innovation. |
…………………………Research team(24) |
• The Rational Bubbles in Chinese Stock Market |
Abstract:We study in this article the existence of bubbles in Chinas stock market. We argue that the bubbles in this market could be rational and that the following factors might have contributed to the existence of the rational bubbles in asset prices: 1 The strict rules imposed on stock listing; 2 The lack of choices of financial instruments available to investors; 3 The interference of Chinas government to asset prices; 4 The non existence of short-sale mechanism; 5 The inefficiency of arbitrage mechanism; and 6 Low dividend payments to shareholders of Chinas public companies. Based on our analyses, we make several recommendations on dealing with the bubbles in asset prices. |
…………………………Zhou Chunsheng and Yang Yunhong(33) |
• Asymmetric Information and Manipulate Stock in Institution Behavior |
Abstract:The purpose of this research is to reveal the causation of stock prices volatility in Chinese stock markets. In an environment of asymmetric information, scrutiny reveals that manipulate accounting earnings in institutions behavior influence stock price, and institutions gain excess returns in this way. The a symmetric information between institutions is less than that between institutions and individual investors. The development of institutions could depress manipulate stock in institutions behavior. A reversed “U” demonstrates the relation between the amount of institution in proportion to those of investors and the degrees of manipulate stock in institutions behavior. |
…………………………Zhao Tao and Zheng Zuxuan(41) |
• The Listed Companies liabilities Behavior,ShareholdersWealth and Stock Market Effect |
Abstract:This paper investigates into the effects of the listed companies liabilities behavior on their shareholders wealth,and then examines this by empirical method.The investigation finds that companys liabilities ratio negatively interrelates with stock risk β,that is contrary to the western researches.Further study reveals that,when the market economy was in prosperous position,the shareholders wealth which should have been increased from high debt,was restrained by the increased managers moral hazards and agent costs caused by the administrative and unrational behavior of companys raising money from bank,and that when the market economy was in depression liability may provide incentive on managers in a certain extent,and holds back the descent of shareholders wealth because of high debt.So,raising money from banks may stabilize the fluctuation of companys earnings and shareholders wealth,but the degree of stabilization varies from the listed companys operational power and its competitive power. |
…………………………Huang Zhizhong and Bai Yunxia(49) |
• Asset Specificity,Network Expanding and Private Order |
Abstract:Since the words“Common tragedy” was created by Hardin 1968,they have been seen as the theoretic basis for criticizing public property.Looking into the reality,however,we often hear the words “network,network externality”,and also find lots of phenomena about public property,and the public properties are still expanding and becoming more and more prosperous.For this,the theoretic explanation is a blurring concept——network externality.I put forward my own explanation for it.According to analyzing the self\|enforcing agreements,I hold that because of the existence of asset specificity,a player put down irreversible,nonsavageable sunk cost,form a credible commitment and construct private order when he/she get into the network.The private order extends the network and realize “common prosperity”.The essay includes four parts:Part one I put forward my opinion; Part two explores the game\|theoretical analysis of privat order; Part three discusses the theoretical conforming; and the last part is the conclusion. |
…………………………Hui Shuangmin(63) |
• The Review of Constitutionalism Transition Theory |
Abstract:The comparative research of Chinese and Russian reform is always being the focus concerned by the new transitional economics.Since the finance crisis of Russia broke out in 1998,the supporters of radical reform have been silent for a time.While from the last half year of 1999,Russian economy started to climb from the bottom; the growth rate of Russian economy ranked first in the world,the GDPs growth rate reached 8.3%.At the same time,Chinese economic reform stepped into the rough phase.In this key period,the contradiction accumulated by the gradual reform is increasingly serious,as well as China will bear the outer pressure of the entry into WTO because of the laggard marketilizing reform.On this situation,the economists step further into discuss the reform means and rdoas of China and Russia.This paper will analyze and criticize the famous ideas currently remarked by the theory field\|The Theory of Constitutionalism Transition. |
…………………………Qu Zhentao and Liu Wenge(69) |
• Distribution-determined Effectives on the Value of Intellectual Labor Force and its Model |
Abstract:In the knowledge\|economy,the intellectualintensive labor——the most principal source of the value,has replaced the physical intensive labor.The traits of intellectual labor make the sum of labor condensed in products correlate positively with the intelligence investment,which does the same to the value of intellectual labor force.Therefore,in contrast with the age\|determined wage system,to increase the proportio nof intellectual force value in the distribution\|determined mechanism will not only reflect the principle of capability\|oriented distribution,but also testify the distribution\|determine deffectiveness made by advanced productivity.The minimum wage prescribed by physical labor force,plus the difference of wage measured by the intellectual labor force in various levels,will futher improve the allocation of intelligence investment and labor force.The wage distribution system based on the value of intellectual labor force,can be defined as the micro\|static distribution model based on the discount theory. |
…………………………Zhang Bingshen,Li Huamin and Luo Mingzhong(76) |
• China and Other North-East Asian Economies:the Vision of the Integration of Agricultural Resource |
Abstract:The integration of agricultural resources and further economic integration between China,who is still in lower development phrase, and other higher developed economies in North East Asian, will essentially benefit all the partners. Such integrations are supposed to be realized among these countries/regions through horizontal specialization among agriculture and other industries as well as vertical division of agricultural production. Thus it is demanded that all the partners, especially the agricultural groups in higher income countries/regions, dismiss the myopia and push forward the process of trade and investment liberalization. |
…………………………Cheng Shulan,Dong Xiaodan,Jin Zhiyong,Li Yanmin and Cui Ri(83) |
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