Economic Research Journal (Monthly) No.6 June, 2001 |
• The Genesis of Regional Barriers in Chinas Local Market and Countermeasures |
Abstract:This paper is to study the regional barriers in China with the path dependence theory as the analytic tool. It argues that this phenomenon,unique during the transition, is rooted in the administrative decentralization characterized by finance contracting which de facto transformed many SOE S into local government owned.Two authors also point out that some realistic factors such as industrial structure inherited from traditional central planning system and the performance criteria in the assessment of the local leaders strengthen the tendency of regional barriers. This paper advances some policy suggestions,and emphasizes that if adopting appropriate policies and measures as well as deepening reforms particularly of the denationalization of SOE S,the regional barriers can be removed and an integrated national market system will be established in China within five to ten years. |
…………………………Yin Wenquan and Cai Wanru(3) |
• Interest Rate Control and Market-oriented Interest Rate in China |
Abstract:The financial restraint policies adopted by Chinese government have achieved remarkable success in assuring a stable finance, economic growth and sound finance.The financial restraint policies of interest rate control also have costed much.Market oriented interest rate is historically inevitable for China′s WTO accession and the opening of financial market to the outside world,but,there are considerable restrained factors to put market oriented interest rate into action.Market oriented interest rate can be put in place unless those restrained factors are released. |
…………………………Wang Guosong(13) |
• Chinas Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate:An Aggregated General Equilibrium Analysis |
Abstract:Chinas maintenance of a de facto peg against the US dollar during the Asian crisis caused a realignment of exchange rates in the Asian region. This paper explores the “equilibrium”level of Chinas real effective rate in the lead up and during that crisis. A derivative of the Devarajan Lewis Robinson three goods general equilibrium model is employed to estimate time paths of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade.Key requirements of the model are indices of import and export prices in time series. Since these are unavailable from secondary sources they are here constructed from trade data. The results suggest that Chinas real effective exchange rate was on the low side in the four years prior to the crisis,due in part to an extraordinary rate of accumulation of foreign reserves. If,instead,no more than 10 per cent of annual export revenue had been set aside as reserves in this period,it is estimated that Chinas real effective exchange rate would have been higher by between 5 and 12 per cent. |
…………………………Bu Yongxiang and Rod Tyers(21) |
• A Study of Models for Predicting Financial Distress in Chinas Listed Companies |
Abstract:This paper studies how to establish models for predicting financial distress in Chinas listed companies.We firstly discuss three key issues,namely,definition of financial distress, prediction variables and models. Then both univariate and multivariate models,including Linear Probability Model,Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression are used to conduct an empirical study of 70 companies with and 70 without financial distress as samples in order to select variables and models. In is noted that the 6 of 21 financial ratios are significantly related with financial distress,and the model by Logistic Regression is more precise in predicting fumancial distress with lowest error. |
…………………………Wu Shinong and Lu Xianyi(46) |
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